According to Antoine Augustine Cournot, chance events are the result of the intersection between independent causal chains. This coincidental notion of chance is not a new one, but—as Cournot remarks—it comes from Saint Thomas Aquinas, Boethius, and more probably from Jean de La Placette. Such a conception of chance phenomena seems to be very important, not only because it is closely related to the Principle of Causality, but also since it grounds Cournot’s theory of objective probability. Starting from Martin’s work, (...) the main attempt of this survey is to endorse the idea that Cournot’s coincidental notion of hasard is objective, that is it is ontic and it does not depend—in some sense—on our degree of knowledge. In order to do that, a central role in the discussion will be given to the meaning of the independence between the intersecting causal chains and to Cournot’s conception of causation. (shrink)

Making more accurate marketing decisions by managers requires building effective predictive models. Typically, these models specify the probability of customer belonging to a particular category, group or segment. The analytical CRM categories refer to customers interested in starting cooperation with the company, customers who purchase additional products or customers intending to resign from the cooperation. During building predictive models researchers use analytical tools from various disciplines with an emphasis on their best performance. This article attempts to build a hybrid predictive (...) model combining decision trees and cluster analysis. During experiments five different cluster validity indices and eight datasets were used. The performance of models was evaluated by using popular measures such as: accuracy, precision, recall, G-mean, F-measure and lift in the first and in the second decile. The authors tried to find a connection between the number of clusters and models' quality. (shrink)

The wound inflicted by the clerical sexual abuse scandal and its cover-up runs so deep that it is sometimes deemed impossible to talk about the church at the beginning of the twenty-first century in a credible way without making at least some reference to this problem. This opinion is seemingly partially shared by current and previous pontiffs, who, on many occasions and in various contexts, have touched upon this issue. In the many interventions in which Benedict XVI and Francis have (...) raised this sad topic, they have apologised on behalf of the leaders of the church for the cases of abuse and for the following cover-up. They have offered words of regret and consolation to victims, their families, the entire church and the world, and have promised to do everything possible to prevent it from happening again. Further, they have attempted to identify the causes of the problem to understand how it could have taken place and the actions required to prevent this tragedy from recurring. Their analyses bear signs of similarities and dissimilarities. The purpose of this article is to ask what the church in Australia, and the church in general, can learn from the two popes' approaches to this problem, not only with regard to handling possible future cases of abuse, but also with regard to the general ways of existing as a church in the twenty-first century. Behind Francis's and Benedict's conclusions lie their own theologies of the church, which are worth exploring since they contain important lessons and signposts for the church at the beginning of the third millennium. (shrink)

Dialectical contradictions influence organizational processes in distinct ways and create a unique dynamics in terms of leadership process in entrepreneurialorganizations. We integrate research from charismatic, transformational, and organizational literature, as well as entrepreneurship literature, to create a generalized model of entrepreneurial leadership that is descriptively robust and conceptually distinct from existing concepts. We focus specifically on visionary, transformational, and motivational contradictions of entrepreneurial leadership and conclude by discussing the implications of organizational reconciliation of these three contradictions for leadership research and (...) practice. (shrink)

Peter Singer is one of the most famous bioethicists in the world. His controversial opinions disseminated in his countless publications and his undoubtedly good erudition made him very popular. Using logical arguments he always tries to prove that only a conscious being, a person, has the right to live. No wonder that his opponents call him "the famous death messenger". Australian philosopher is an ethic relativist in the way that he resigns from objective values in his conception. Moreover, he doesn't (...) approve unchangeable moral principles. According to him such moral values as 'good' and 'bad' are relative, depending on consequences which decide what is right in particular situation. He is polemical to traditional ethic adherents who value every human life. There is no objective life category in his conception. Life can be only considered according to its quality and, therefore, only beings possessing feelings and consciousness are subjects of morality. They only have the right to live. (shrink)

W ostatnich latach mamy do czynienia z dynamicznym rozwojem neuroetyki, tj. subdyscypliny nauk o mózgu badającej rozmaite zagadnienia etyczne w kontekście funkcjonowania ludzkiego umysłu i mózgu. Centralnym przedmiotem tych badań jest specyficznie ludzka zdolność do wydawania sądów moralnych oraz jej mechanizmy. Tymczasem twierdzenia neuroetyki mają znacznie szerszy wymiar; wykracza on bowiem poza kwestie czysto opisowe i obejmuje swym zasięgiem zagadnienia teoretyczne etyki. W niniejszym artykule rozważam znaczenie badań neuroetycznych dla analiz przeprowadzanych w obszarze etyki normatywnej oraz metaetyki.

As a middle path between classical theism and pantheism, the panentheistic turn in the twentieth century has been described as a "quiet revolution." Today, in fact, many theologians hold that the world is "in" God (who, at the same time, is more than the world). Panentheism has been especially influential in the dialogue between theology and the natural sciences. Many have seen panentheism as compatible with emergentism, and thus have brought the two together in developing models of divine action that (...) do not abrogate the regularities of processes of the natural world. In Divine Action and Emergence, Mariusz Tabaczek argues that, as inspiring and intriguing as emergentist panentheism is, it requires deeper examination. He begins by looking at the wonder of emergence (which calls into question the overly reductionist attitude in natural science) and by reflecting philosophically on emergence theory in light of classical and new Aristotelianism. Moving in a theological direction, Tabaczek then offers a critical evaluation of emergentist panentheism and a constructive proposal for how to reinterpret the idea of divine action as inspired by the theory of emergence with reference to the classical Aristotelian-Thomistic understanding of God's action in the universe. Through a unique interdisciplinary approach that puts theology and the natural sciences into a dialogue through philosophy, Divine Action and Emergence offers a comprehensive evaluation of panentheism. It then puts forward an original reinterpretation of emergence theory, thus setting forth a constructive proposal for reinterpreting the concept of divine action that is currently espoused by emergence theory. It will appeal to scholars of theology and philosophy, those who work in the area of theology and science, those interested in emergence theory or panentheism, and finally those who are interested in the dialogue between the classical Aristotelian-Thomistic tradition and contemporary philosophy and theology. (shrink)

Approximately one in six top economic research papers draws an explicitly causal conclusion. But what do economists mean when they conclude that A 'causes' B? Does 'cause' say that we can influence B by intervening on A, or is it only a label for the correlation of variables? Do quantitative analyses of observational data followed by such causal inferences constitute sufficient grounds for guiding economic policymaking? The Philosophy of Causality in Economics addresses these questions by analyzing the meaning of causal (...) claims made by economists and the philosophical presuppositions underlying the research methods used. The book considers five key causal approaches: the regularity approach, probabilistic theories, counterfactual theories, mechanisms, and interventions and manipulability. Each chapter opens with a summary of literature on the relevant approach and discusses its reception amongst economists. The text details case studies, and goes on to examine papers which have adopted the approach in order to highlight the methods of causal inference used in contemporary economics. It analyses the meaning of the causal claim put forward, and finally reconstructs the philosophical presuppositions accepted implicitly by economists. The strengths and limitations of each method of causal inference are also considered in the context of using the results as evidence for policymaking. This book is essential reading to those interested in literature on the philosophy of economics, as well as the philosophy of causality and economic methodology in general. (shrink)

Over the years, the Austrian School of Economics has created the image of a thinker associated with ideas of liberalism. The views of members of this school are often considered controversial. However, the concept of freedom clearly displayed by the Austrians is very popular among economists. Carl Menger is said to be the founder and a leading member of the Austrian School of Economics, and his works are mostly devoted to methodology and economic theory. Nevertheless, you can also find his (...) views on the sphere of economic liberalism and freedom. Almost 150 years after the publication of Menger’s main works, it emerged that he had created not only the timeless foundations of the theory and methodology of economics, but his theory of subjective value had become the bedrock which is used to this day in deliberations on economic liberalism. The economy pursued by Menger (based primarily on the ideas of subjectivism and individualism) continues to be an important and timeless foundation for the development of the doctrine of economic liberalism. This article is a review based on an analysis of the literature on the subject. (shrink)

It is a common opinion that chance events cannot be understood in causal terms. Conversely, according to a causal view of chance, intersections between independent causal chains originate accidental events, called “coincidences.” The present paper takes into proper consideration this causal conception of chance and tries to shed new light on it. More precisely, starting from Hart and Honoré’s view of coincidental events, this paper furnishes a more detailed account on the nature of coincidences, according to which coincidental events are (...) hybrids constituted by ontic components, that is the intersections between independent causal chains, plus epistemic aspects; where by “epistemic” we mean what is related, in some sense, to knowledge: for example, access to information, but also expectations, relevance, significance, that is psychological aspects. In particular, this paper investigates the role of the epistemic aspects in our understanding of what coincidences are. In fact, although the independence between the causal lines involved plays a crucial role in understanding coincidental events, that condition results to be insufficient to give a satisfactory definition of coincidences. The main target of the present work is to show that the epistemic aspects of coincidences are, together with the independence between the intersecting causal chains, a constitutive part of coincidental phenomena. Many examples are offered throughout this paper to enforce this idea. This conception, despite—for example—Antoine Augustine Cournot and Jacques Monod’s view, entails that a pure objectivist view about coincidences is not tenable. (shrink)

Conflicting results undermine making inferences from the empirical literature. So far, the replication crisis is mainly seen as resulting from honest errors and questionable research practices such as p-hacking or the base-rate fallacy. I discuss the malleability (researcher degrees of freedom) of quantitative research and argue that conflicting results can emerge from two studies using different but plausible designs (e.g., eligibility criteria, operationalization of concepts, outcome measures) and statistical methods. I also explore how the choices regarding study design and statistical (...) techniques bias results in a way that makes them more or less relevant for a given policy or clinical question. (shrink)

It is well-established that topos theory is inherently connected with intuitionistic logic. In recent times several works appeared concerning so-called complement-toposes, which are allegedly connected to the dual to intuitionistic logic. In this paper I present this new notion, some of the motivations for it, and some of its consequences. Then, I argue that, assuming equivalence of certain two definitions of a topos, the concept of a complement-classifier is, at least in general and within the conceptual framework of category theory, (...) not appropriately defined. For this purpose, I first analyze the standard notion of a subobject classifier, show its connection with the representability of the functor Sub via the Yoneda lemma, recall some other properties of the internal structure of a topos and, based on these, I critically comment on the notion of a complement-classifier. (shrink)

The current strategy of searching for an effective treatment for COVID-19 relies mainly on repurposing existing therapies developed to target other diseases. Conflicting results have emerged in regard to the efficacy of several tested compounds but later results were negative. The number of conducted and ongoing trials and the urgent need for a treatment pose the risk that false-positive results will be incorrectly interpreted as evidence for treatments’ efficacy and a ground for drug approval. Our purpose is twofold. First, we (...) show that the number of drug-repurposing trials can explain the false-positive results. Second, we assess the evidence for treatments’ efficacy from the perspective of evidential pluralism and argue that considering mechanistic evidence is particularly needed in cases when the evidence from clinical trials is conflicting or of low quality. Our analysis is an application of the program of Evidence Based Medicine Plus to the drug repurposing trials for COVID. Our study shows that if decision-makers applied EBM+, authorizing the use of ineffective treatments would be less likely. We analyze the example of trials assessing the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19 and mechanistic evidence in favor of and against its therapeutic power to draw a lesson for decision-makers and drug agencies on how excessive hypothesis testing can lead to spurious findings and how studying negative mechanistic evidence can be helpful in discriminating genuine from spurious results. (shrink)

It is a common opinion that chance events cannot be understood in causal terms. Conversely, according to a causal view of chance, intersections between independent causal chains originate accidental events, called “coincidences”. Firstly, this book explores this causal conception of chance and tries to shed new light on it. Such a view has been defended by authors like Antoine Augustine Cournot and Jacques Monod. Second, a relevant alternative is provided by those accounts that, instead of acknowledging an intersection among causal (...) lines, claim to track coincidences back to some common cause. Third, starting from Herbert Hart and Anthony Honoré’s view of coincidences (Causation in the Law. Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1959). This book provides a more detailed account of coincidences, according to which coincidental events are hybrids constituted by ontic (physical) components, which is the intersection between independent causal chains, plus epistemic aspects, including but not limited to, access to information, expectations, relevance, significance, desires, which in turn are psychological aspects. -/- The main target of the present work is to show that the epistemic aspects of coincidences are, together with the independence between the intersecting causal chains, a constitutive part of coincidental phenomena. This book aims to introduce and discuss recent work in psychology concerning one’s judgment about coincidences; this data offers further materials and reasons to reflect upon our understanding of coincidences and to refine our hybrid conception. (shrink)

A survey of the main approaches in a mind study -oriented part of Artificial Intelligence is made focusing on controversial issues and extreme hypotheses. Various meanings of terms: "intelligence" and "artificial intelligence" are discussed. Limitations for constructing intelligent systems resulting from the lack of formalized models of cognitive activity are shown. The approaches surveyed are then recapitulated in the light of these limitations.

The aim of the work is to present the conservative views of the journalist and historian Henryk Lisicki and the role he played in the community with which he collaborated, i.e. the Krakow conservatives called the Stańczyk Circle. The source of the article are monographs, brochures, dissertations, essays and articles published in „Przegląd Polski“ by Lisicki. In order to evaluate to what extent Lisicki’s political thought was original, and to what extent it was in conformity with the Stańczyk Circle, the (...) publications of Walerian Kalinka, Stanisław Tarnowski, Michał Bobczyński, Józef Szujski and Stanisław Koźmian were also used. While working on the topic, the author made use of the works specializing in the history of Polish and Western conservative thought published by Ryszard Ludwikowski, Bogdan Szlachta, Jacek Bartyzel, Józef Szacki and the views expressed by the members of the Stańczyk Circle such as Michał Jaskólski, Wojciech Dutka, Stanisław Filipowicz, Henryk Michalak. When examining the above issues, a comparative method was used, tracing both the similarities and differences in the ideas of Lisicki and his colleagues from the Stańczyk Circle. The main thesis formulated in the work is that although Lisicki did not belong to the group of leaders, his close intellectual ties with Stanisław Koźmian gave him a respected position among Krakow conservatives. The analysis of his works confirmed that he was also capable of original reflections which focused on the attitude of the conservatives to the nineteenth-century democratization processes, the evolution of Western absolute monarchies towards the constitution democracies and the expansion of electoral rights. Hence, it was symptomatic for Lisicki and his community to argue, inter alia, for the necessity of rapprochement with moderate liberals, the aim of which was to weaken the danger coming from the revolted masses which were being under the influence of radicals. (shrink)

The methodological nonreductionism of contemporary biology opens an interesting discussion on the level of ontology and the philosophy of nature. The theory of emergence (EM), and downward causation (DC) in particular, bring a new set of arguments challenging not only methodological, but also ontological and causal reductionism. This argumentation provides a crucial philosophical foundation for the science/theology dialogue. However, a closer examination shows that proponents of EM do not present a unified and consistent definition of DC. Moreover, they find it (...) difficult to prove that higher-order properties can be causally significant without violating the causal laws that operate at lower physical levels. They also face the problem of circularity and incoherence in their explanation. In our article we show that these problems can be overcome only if DC is understood in terms of formal rather than physical (efficient) causality. This breakdown of causal monism in science opens a way to the retrieval of the fourfold Aristotelian notion of causality. (shrink)

Objectives To investigate empirically the motivations for not consenting to DNA biobanking in a Swedish population-based study and to discuss the implications. Design Structured questionnaires and semistructured interviews. Setting A longitudinal epidemiological project (PART) ongoing since 1998 in Stockholm, Sweden. The DNA-collection wave took place during 2006–7. Participants 903 individuals completed the questionnaire (participation rate 36%) and 23 were interviewed. All individuals had participated in both non-genetic waves of the project, but refused to contribute saliva samples during the DNA-collection wave. (...) Main outcome measures Motivations behind refusing to consent to DNA biobanking, with subsequent focus on participants' explanations regarding this unwillingness. Results Public refusal to consent to DNA biobanking, as revealed by the questionnaire, was mainly explained by a lack of personal relevance of DNA contribution and feelings of discomfort related to the DNA being used for purposes other than the respective study. Interviews of individuals representing the second motivation, revealed a significant mistrust of DNA biobank studies. The underlying beliefs and attitudes were associated with concerns about integrity, privacy, suspiciousness and insecurity. However, most interviewees were supportive of genetic research per se and interpreted their mistrust in the light of distressing environmental influences. Conclusion The results suggest a need for guidelines on benefit sharing, as well as trustworthy and stable measures to maintain privacy, as a means for increasing personal relevance and trust among potential participants in genetic research. Measures taken from biobanks seem insufficient in maintaining and increasing trust, suggesting that broader societal measures should be taken. (shrink)

In his recent paper in the Journal of Economic Methodology, Tobias Henschen puts forth a manipulationist definition of macroeconomic causality that strives for adequacy. As the notion of ‘adequacy’...

[The paper is in Polish, an English abstract is given only for information.] This article is intended for philosophers and logicians as a short partial introduction to category theory and its peculiar connection with logic. First, we consider CT itself. We give a brief insight into its history, introduce some basic definitions and present examples. In the second part, we focus on categorical topos semantics for propositional logic. We give some properties of logic in toposes, which, in general, is an (...) intuitionistic logic. We next present two families of toposes whose tautologies are identical with those of classical propositional logic. The relatively extensive bibliography is given in order to support further studies. (shrink)

The results of econometric modeling are fragile in the sense that minor changes in estimation techniques or sample can lead to statistical models that support inconsistent causal hypotheses. The fragility of econometric results undermines making conclusive inferences from the empirical literature. I argue that the program of evidential pluralism, which originated in the context of medicine and encapsulates to the normative reading of the Russo-Williamson Thesis that causal claims need the support of both difference-making and mechanistic evidence, offers a ground (...) for resolving empirical disagreements. I analyze a recent econometric controversy regarding the tax elasticity of cigarette consumption and smoking intensity. Both studies apply plausible estimation techniques but report inconsistent results. I show that mechanistic evidence allows for discriminating econometric models representing genuine causal relations from accidental dependencies in data. Furthermore, I discuss the differences between biological and social mechanisms and mechanistic evidence across the disciplines. I show that economists mainly rely on mathematical models to represent possible mechanisms. Still, claiming the actuality of the represented mechanisms requires establishing that crucial assumptions of these models are descriptively adequate. I exemplify my approach to assessing the quality of mechanistic evidence in economics with an analysis of two models of rational addiction. (shrink)

In theology there has never been any doubt that God can cause things to happen, but there has been a great deal of controversy about the precise nature of God’s causal activity in nature. The theory of divine concurrentism (both God, as primary cause, and creatures, as secondary causes, are engaged in causal processes), fostering the middle way between the anti-providential notion of natural causation and occasionalism (which attributes all causation to God), was questioned in the era of modern science (...) and philosophy. The restriction of divine action to the moment of the first creation in deism led to the agnostic and atheistic rejection of God as an ‘unnecessary hypothesis.’ Most theological responses to this crisis followed the restriction of causality to efficient causes, showing an implicit tendency to speak about the causation of God and creatures in univocal terms and trying to define the ‘causal joint’ between God and nature. A philosophical analysis of evolutionary biology, emergence, big bang cosmology, chaos theory, and quantum mechanics, however, has recently brought a retrieval of a broader understanding of causation, triggering a renewed interest in divine action. The topic of causality has raised interest among analytical philosophers as well. Those following the metaphysics of dispositions and manifestations acknowledge the neo-Aristotelian flavor of their analyses, which becomes, in turn, an incentive for a revival of the classical version of divine concurrentism. (shrink)