Results for 'Black Swan'

940 found
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  1.  95
    Black Swans in Politics.Robert Jervis - 2009 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 21 (4):475-489.
    ABSTRACT We like to believe that our world is regular, that we can predict it fairly well, and that we can control the risks we run. Nassim Taleb argues that we are fooling ourselves and that the course of history is driven by rare and extreme events, which he calls Black Swans. There is much to this, but scholars—at least in political science—are less oblivious to the problem than he believes. More thought needs to be given to hard issues (...)
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  2.  41
    Black Swan.Dharmender Dhillon - 2011 - Philosophy Now 86:46-47.
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  3.  92
    Free Will, Black Swans and Addiction.Ted Fenton & Reinout W. Wiers - 2016 - Neuroethics 10 (1):157-165.
    The current dominant perspective on addiction as a brain disease has been challenged recently by Marc Lewis, who argued that the brain-changes related to addiction are similar to everyday changes of the brain. From this alternative perspective, addictions are bad habits that can be broken, provided that people are motivated to change. In that case, autonomous choice or “free will” can overcome bad influences from genes and or environments and brain-changes related to addiction. Even though we concur with Lewis that (...)
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  4.  40
    Black Swans of CRISPR: Stochasticity and Complexity of Genetic Regulation.Kang Hao Cheong, Jin Ming Koh & Michael C. Jones - 2019 - Bioessays 41 (7):1900032.
    Graphical AbstractRecent waves of controversies surrounding genetic engineering have spilled into popular science in Twitter battles between reputable scientists and their followers. Here, a cautionary perspective on the possible blind spots and risks of CRISPR and related biotechnologies is presented, focusing in particular on the stochastic nature of cellular control processes.
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  5.  15
    Fukushima, Flawed Epistemology, and Black-Swan Events.Dr Kristin Shrader-Frechette - 2011 - Ethics, Policy and Environment 14 (3):267-272.
    In response to the Fukushima, Chernobyl, and Three Mile Island core melts, nuclear proponents allege they were “black-swan events”—extremely unlikely, at the tail of probability distributions. They...
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  6. Dissecting the Black Swan.Jochen Runde - 2009 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 21 (4):491-505.
    ABSTRACT What constitutes a Black Swan? And under what conditions may a Black Swan be expected to arise? As Nassim Taleb describes it, a Black Swan is an event that displays three key properties, the two most important of which are that: (1) it is not even imagined as a possibility prior to its occurrence; and (2) it is in some way significant in its impact. It follows that whether or not an event counts (...)
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  7.  14
    Black Swan Lake: Life of a Wetland.Rodney James Giblett - 2013 - Intellect.
    Presenting a wetlands calendar that charts the yearly cycle of the rising, falling, and drying waters of this internationally significant wetland, this book is a modern-day Walden.
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  8.  38
    Quantum Field Theory of Black-Swan Events.H. Kleinert - 2014 - Foundations of Physics 44 (5):546-556.
    Free and weakly interacting particles are described by a second-quantized nonlinear Schrödinger equation, or relativistic versions of it. They describe Gaussian random walks with collisions. By contrast, the fields of strongly interacting particles are governed by effective actions, whose extremum yields fractional field equations. Their particle orbits perform universal Lévy walks with heavy tails, in which rare events are much more frequent than in Gaussian random walks. Such rare events are observed in exceptionally strong windgusts, monster or rogue waves, earthquakes, (...)
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  9.  15
    (1 other version)Looking for Black Swans: Critical Elimination and History.Michael F. Duggan - forthcoming - Symposion. Theoretical and Applied Inquiries in Philosophy and Social Sciences.
    Michael F. Duggan ABSTRACT: This article examines the basis for testing historical claims and proffers the observation that the historical method is akin to the scientific method in that it utilizes critical elimination rather than justification. Building on the critical rationalism of Karl Popper – and specifically the deductive component of the scientific method called ….
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  10.  51
    "Like Black Swans: Some People and Themes," by Brocard Sewell. [REVIEW]Barbara Wall - 1984 - The Chesterton Review 10 (3):334-336.
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  11.  76
    Fukushima, Flawed Epistemology, and Black-Swan Events.Kristin Shrader-Frechette - 2011 - Ethics, Policy and Environment 14 (3):267 - 272.
    Ethics, Policy & Environment, Volume 14, Issue 3, Page 267-272, October 2011.
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  12.  34
    Poor Readers and Black Swans.John C. Marshall & Giuseppe Cossu - 1991 - Mind and Language 6 (2):135-139.
  13. Coping with the Black Swan: The Unsettling World of Nassim Taleb.Mark Blyth - 2009 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 21 (4):447-465.
    ABSTRACT Nassim Taleb rightly points out that although people may acknowledge in the abstract that the world is uncertain, they still behave as if a large enough sample size is all that is needed to predict, and model, the future. He also rightly notes that ever‐increasing quantities of information are relevant only in simple situations, such as in predicting the range of human height, but are misleading in more random arenas, such as financial markets. However, while Taleb decries the use (...)
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  14.  54
    Black Elephants and Black Swans of Nuclear Safety.Niklas Möller & Per Wikman-Svahn - 2011 - Ethics, Policy and Environment 14 (3):273 - 278.
    Ethics, Policy & Environment, Volume 14, Issue 3, Page 273-278, October 2011.
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  15. Becoming animal and the two meanings of animality : a Derridean reading of black swan.Rodolfo Piskorski - 2018 - In Sarah Bezan & James Tink, Seeing animals after Derrida. Lanham: Lexington Books.
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  16. Masters of a Better Possible Reality.Liz Stillwaggon Swan - 2012 - In William Irwin, Black Sabbath and philosophy: mastering reality. Malden, MA: Wiley.
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  17. Green fields, ugly ducklings and black swans: aesthetic dimensions of ecological science.Samantha Capon, Robyn Bartel, Sandy Boucher, Felicity Joseph & Anthony Lynch - forthcoming - People and Nature.
    Despite its relative infancy, ecological science plays a pre-eminent role in current environmental decision-making globally and has, over recent decades, permeated a broad range of academic disciplines. Developments in two areas of philosophical thought in particular, environmental aesthetics and the aesthetics of science, beg an exploration of their intersection with respect to the role of aesthetics in ecological science. Here, we provide a contemporary synthesis of both environmental aesthetics and aesthetics of science to explore aesthetic dimensions of contemporary ecological science, (...)
     
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  18.  41
    Big Data and Ethics Review for Health Systems Research in LMICs: Understanding Risk, Uncertainty and Ignorance—And Catching the Black Swans?Türkay Dereli, Yavuz Coşkun, Eugene Kolker, Öner Güner, Mehmet Ağırbaşlı & Vural Özdemir - 2014 - American Journal of Bioethics 14 (2):48-50.
  19. Green fields, ugly ducklings and black swans: aesthetic dimensions of ecological science.Samantha Capon, Robyn Bartel, Sandy Boucher, Felicity Joseph & Anthony Lynch - forthcoming - People and Nature.
    Despite its relative infancy, ecological science plays a pre-eminent role in current environmental decision-making globally and has, over recent decades, permeated a broad range of academic disciplines. Developments in two areas of philosophical thought in particular, environmental aesthetics and the aesthetics of science, beg an exploration of their intersection with respect to the role of aesthetics in ecological science. Here, we provide a contemporary synthesis of both environmental aesthetics and aesthetics of science to explore aesthetic dimensions of contemporary ecological science, (...)
     
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  20. "All swans are white or black." Does this refer to possible swans on canals on Mars?J. L. Austin - 1958 - Analysis 18 (5):97-98.
  21. The Sacrificial Ram and the Swan Queen: Mimetic Theory Fades to Black.Brian Collins - 2013 - Contagion: Journal of Violence, Mimesis, and Culture 20:207-237.
    In lieu of an abstract, here is a brief excerpt of the content:The Sacrificial Ram and the Swan QueenMimetic Theory Fades to BlackBrian Collins (bio)“We speak of a ‘black’ mirror. But where it mirrors, it darkens, of course, but it doesn’t look black, and that which is seen in it does not appear ‘dirty’ but ‘deep.’”—Ludwig Wittgenstein, Remarks on ColorThis paper explores the ways in which male and female bodies become the sites of mimetic desire and ritual (...)
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  22.  14
    Incompatibility of sulfate compounds and soluble bicarbonate salts in the Rio Cruces waters: an answer to the disappearance of Egeria densa and black-necked swans in a RAMSAR sanctuary.L. Mulsow & M. Grandjean - 2006 - Ethics in Science and Environmental Politics 6:5-11.
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  23.  16
    (1 other version)Causes of the disappearance of the aquatic plant Egeria densa and black-necked swans in a Ramsar sanctuary: comment on Mulsow & Grandjean.M. Soto-Gamboa, N. Lagos, E. Jaramillo, R. Nespolo & A. Casanova-Katny - 2007 - Ethics in Science and Environmental Politics 9:7-10.
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  24. Incompatibility of sulphate compounds and soluble bicarbonate salts in the Rio Cruces waters: an answer to the disappearance of Egeria densa and black-necked swans in a RAMSAR sanctuary.Sandor Mulsow & Mariano Grandjean - 2006 - Ethics in Science and Environmental Politics 2006:5-11.
     
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  25. ANALYSIS Problem No.12 All swans are white or black. Does this refer to possible swans on canals on Mars?R. Harré - 1957 - Analysis 18:97.
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  26. Analysis 'Problem' No. 12, 'All swans are white or black'. Does this Refer to Possible Swans on Canals on Mars?W. I. Matson - 1957 - Analysis 18 (5):98-99.
  27.  89
    Analysis 'Problem' No. 12, 'All swans are white or black'. Does this Refer to Possible Swans on Canals on Mars?V. V. Mshvenieradze - 1957 - Analysis 18 (5):100-101.
  28. Existential Risks: Exploring a Robust Risk Reduction Strategy.Karim Jebari - 2015 - Science and Engineering Ethics 21 (3):541-554.
    A small but growing number of studies have aimed to understand, assess and reduce existential risks, or risks that threaten the continued existence of mankind. However, most attention has been focused on known and tangible risks. This paper proposes a heuristic for reducing the risk of black swan extinction events. These events are, as the name suggests, stochastic and unforeseen when they happen. Decision theory based on a fixed model of possible outcomes cannot properly deal with this kind (...)
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  29.  75
    Do US Black Women Experience Stress-Related Accelerated Biological Aging?Arline T. Geronimus, Margaret T. Hicken, Jay A. Pearson, Sarah J. Seashols, Kelly L. Brown & Tracey Dawson Cruz - 2010 - Human Nature 21 (1):19-38.
    We hypothesize that black women experience accelerated biological aging in response to repeated or prolonged adaptation to subjective and objective stressors. Drawing on stress physiology and ethnographic, social science, and public health literature, we lay out the rationale for this hypothesis. We also perform a first population-based test of its plausibility, focusing on telomere length, a biomeasure of aging that may be shortened by stressors. Analyzing data from the Study of Women’s Health Across the Nation (SWAN), we estimate (...)
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  30. NassimTaleb in conversation with Constantine Sandis.Constantine Sandis & Nassim Taleb - 2008 - Philosophy Now (Sep/Oct):24.
    COnstantien Sandis speaks to Nassim Taleb about inductive knowledge,black swans, Hume, Popper, and Wittgenstein.
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  31.  17
    A Novel Paradigm for Sex Chromosome Turnover: Y and W Changes, X and Z Remain.Tariq Ezaz - 2020 - Bioessays 42 (9):2000152.
    Graphical AbstractOn the Black Swans of conventional sex determination theory: There aren't many, but when an exception to the standard model of sex determination (evolutionary turnover of genes playing the role of “master sex determiner”) arises, it certainly screams out for an explanation. In this issue, a novel one is put forward. It now awaits testing, particularly at the population level.
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  32.  90
    The Causal Closure of Physics in Real World Contexts.George F. R. Ellis - 2020 - Foundations of Physics 50 (10):1057-1097.
    The causal closure of physics is usually discussed in a context free way. Here I discuss it in the context of engineering systems and biology, where strong emergence takes place due to a combination of upwards emergence and downwards causation. Firstly, I show that causal closure is strictly limited in terms of spatial interactions because these are cases that are of necessity strongly interacting with the environment. Effective Spatial Closure holds ceteris parabus, and can be violated by Black (...) Events. Secondly, I show that causal closure in the hierarchy of emergence is a strictly interlevel affair, and in the cases of engineering and biology encompasses all levels from the social level to the particle physics level. However Effective Causal Closure can usefully be defined for a restricted set of levels, and one can experimentally determine Effective Theories that hold at each level. This does not however imply those effective theories are causally complete by themselves. In particular, the particle physics level is not causally complete by itself in the contexts of solid state physics, digital computers, or biology. Furthermore Inextricably Intertwined Levels occur in all these contexts. (shrink)
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  33.  7
    The Importance of Examples in the Philosophy of Carl Hempel.Vera A. Serkova - 2024 - Epistemology and Philosophy of Science 61 (2):209-224.
    The purpose of the article is to analyze the meaning of examples in C. Hempel’s works. Hempel uses many examples referring to readings of magnetic hand, burning of white phosphorus, predictions of properties of some elements of the table of Mendeleev, to astrophysical hypotheses, terms of total solar eclipse, throwing of dice, as well as on unmarried men, on white and black swans, green mermaids, black crows and white shoes, blue roses, predictions of Jones’ recovery, the eruption of (...)
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  34.  29
    Reply to Stephen Angle.Macbeth Danielle - 2017 - Philosophy East and West 67 (4):989-990.
    The idea of natural truth is the idea of truths that are the same for all rational beings with our biological form of life. The thought is that in regard to at least some issues, for example the ontological status of fish, there are natural truths, and that it is the task of philosophy in particular to discover such truths. In my essay I distinguish such truths from empirical truths such as, for example, that water nourishes plants or that there (...)
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  35.  65
    (1 other version)Existential feelings: How cinema makes us feel alive.Dina Mendonça - 2012 - Cinema 3:211-228.
    This paper explores the role of existential feelings in films, and the impact of theconnections between cinema and existential feelings for emotional life in general. After explaining the notion of existential feelings and illustrating them in films with Black Swan and The Help , the paper concludes that movies offer provide insights about our own existential feelings because films promote emotional awareness by the way they function as emotional laboratories. This will lead to an examination the presence and (...)
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  36.  7
    Skin in the game: hidden asymmetries in daily life.Nassim Nicholas Taleb - 2018 - New York: Random House.
    #1 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • A bold work from the author of The Black Swan that challenges many of our long-held beliefs about risk and reward, politics and religion, finance and personal responsibility In his most provocative and practical book yet, one of the foremost thinkers of our time redefines what it means to understand the world, succeed in a profession, contribute to a fair and just society, detect nonsense, and influence others. Citing examples ranging from Hammurabi (...)
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  37.  34
    A Bayesian Baseline for Belief in Uncommon Events.Vesa Palonen - 2017 - European Journal for Philosophy of Religion 9 (3):159-175.
    The plausibility of uncommon events and miracles based on testimony of such an event has been much discussed. When analyzing the probabilities involved, it has mostly been assumed that the common events can be taken as data in the calculations. However, we usually have only testimonies for the common events. While this difference does not have a significant effect on the inductive part of the inference, it has a large influence on how one should view the reliability of testimonies. In (...)
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  38. The objective Bayesian conceptualisation of proof and reference class problems.James Franklin - 2011 - Sydney Law Review 33 (3):545-561.
    The objective Bayesian view of proof (or logical probability, or evidential support) is explained and defended: that the relation of evidence to hypothesis (in legal trials, science etc) is a strictly logical one, comparable to deductive logic. This view is distinguished from the thesis, which had some popularity in law in the 1980s, that legal evidence ought to be evaluated using numerical probabilities and formulas. While numbers are not always useful, a central role is played in uncertain reasoning by the (...)
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  39.  15
    The Teacher.Jennifer Anne Moses - 2018 - Feminist Studies 44 (2):491.
    In lieu of an abstract, here is a brief excerpt of the content:Feminist Studies 44, no. 2. © 2018 by Feminist Studies, Inc. 491 Jennifer Anne Moses The Teacher It didn’t start percolating out until years—decades—later, and by that time even the youngest of what we’d soon be calling “the victims ” were in their early fifties, with husbands and children and grandchildren of their own, or not, with houses, careers, garages stuffed to the gills with lifetimes’ worth of patio (...)
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  40.  41
    B Flach! B Flach!Myroslav Laiuk & Ali Kinsella - 2023 - Common Knowledge 29 (1):1-20.
    Don't tell terrible stories—everyone here has enough of their own. Everyone here has a whole bloody sack of terrible stories, and at the bottom of the sack is a hammer the narrator uses to pound you on the skull the instant you dare not believe your ears. Or to pound you when you do believe. Not long ago I saw a tomboyish girl on Khreshchatyk Street demand money of an elderly woman, threatening to bite her and infect her with syphilis. (...)
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  41. Modality.Nick Effingham - manuscript
    Modal statements are about what could have been: Hitler could have won World War II; I could have been a fisherman; The speed of light could have been twice as fast as it actually is; Swans could have been black; It’s impossible for there to be round squares; Necessarily, 2+2=4. Modal statements also include counterfactual statements: Scientific: If the speed of light were faster, atomic explosions would be more deadly; Ethical: If you hadn’t have made the deceased play on (...)
     
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  42.  91
    The Sensitivity Principle in Epistemology.Kelly Becker & Tim Black (eds.) - 2012 - New York: Cambridge University Press.
    The sensitivity principle is a compelling idea in epistemology and is typically characterized as a necessary condition for knowledge. This collection of thirteen new essays constitutes a state-of-the-art discussion of this important principle. Some of the essays build on and strengthen sensitivity-based accounts of knowledge and offer novel defences of those accounts. Others present original objections to sensitivity-based accounts and offer comprehensive analysis and discussion of sensitivity's virtues and problems. The resulting collection will stimulate new debate about the sensitivity principle (...)
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  43. Translations From the Philosophical Writings of Gottlob Frege.Peter Geach & Max Black - 1952 - Philosophical Library.
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  44.  29
    Works and Correspondence : vol.3 : Essays on Philosophical Subject.Adam Smith, Dugald Stewart, Joseph Black & James Hutton - 1982 - Glasgow Edition of the Works o.
    Enth.: Dugoald Stewart's account of Adam Smith / ed. by I.S. Ross.
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  45.  42
    Shuttling Between Depictive Models and Abstract Rules: Induction and Fallback.Daniel L. Schwartz & John B. Black - 1996 - Cognitive Science 20 (4):457-497.
    A productive way to think about imagistic mental models of physical systems is as though they were sources of quasi‐empirical evidence. People depict or imagine events at those points in time when they would experiment with the world if possible. Moreover, just as they would do when observing the world, people induce patterns of behavior from the results depicted in their imaginations. These resulting patterns of behavior can then be cast into symbolic rules to simplify thinking about future problems and (...)
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  46. (1 other version)Logische Syntax der Sprache.Rudolf Carnap & M. Black - 1935 - Mind 44 (176):499-511.
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  47. Overriding Adolescent Refusals of Treatment.Anthony Skelton, Lisa Forsberg & Isra Black - 2021 - Journal of Ethics and Social Philosophy 20 (3):221-247.
    Adolescents are routinely treated differently to adults, even when they possess similar capacities. In this article, we explore the justification for one case of differential treatment of adolescents. We attempt to make philosophical sense of the concurrent consents doctrine in law: adolescents found to have decision-making capacity have the power to consent to—and thereby, all else being equal, permit—their own medical treatment, but they lack the power always to refuse treatment and so render it impermissible. Other parties, that is, individuals (...)
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  48. Adherence to the Request Criterion in Jurisdictions Where Assisted Dying is Lawful? A Review of the Criteria and Evidence in the Netherlands, Belgium, Oregon, and Switzerland.Penney Lewis & Isra Black - 2013 - Journal of Law, Medicine and Ethics 41 (4):885-898.
    Some form of assisted dying (voluntary euthanasia and/or assisted suicide) is lawful in the Netherlands, Belgium, Oregon, and Switzerland. In order to be lawful in these jurisdictions, a valid request must precede the provision of assistance to die. Non-adherence to the criteria for valid requests for assisted dying may be a trigger for civil and/or criminal liability, as well as disciplinary sanctions where the assistor is a medical professional. In this article, we review the criteria and evidence in respect of (...)
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  49. The morality of creating and eliminating duties.Holly M. Smith & David E. Black - 2019 - Philosophical Studies 176 (12):3211-3240.
    We often act in ways that create duties for ourselves: we adopt a child and become obligated to raise and educate her. We also sometimes act in ways that eliminate duties: we get divorced, and no longer have a duty to support our now ex-spouse. When is it morally permissible to create or to eliminate a duty? These questions have almost wholly evaded philosophical attention. In this paper we develop answers to these questions by arguing in favor of the asymmetric (...)
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  50.  44
    A Prospective Study of the Impact of Transcranial Alternating Current Stimulation on EEG Correlates of Somatosensory Perception.Danielle D. Sliva, Christopher J. Black, Paul Bowary, Uday Agrawal, Juan F. Santoyo, Noah S. Philip, Benjamin D. Greenberg, Christopher I. Moore & Stephanie R. Jones - 2018 - Frontiers in Psychology 9.
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