Creating agents that proficiently interact with people is critical for many applications. Towards creating these agents, models are needed that effectively predict people's decisions in a variety of problems. To date, two approaches have been suggested to generally describe people's decision behavior. One approach creates a-priori predictions about people's behavior, either based on theoretical rational behavior or based on psychological models, including bounded rationality. A second type of approach focuses on creating models based exclusively on observations of people's behavior. At (...) the forefront of these types of methods are various machine learning algorithms. This paper explores how these two approaches can be compared and combined in different types of domains. In relatively simple domains, both psychological models and machine learning yield clear prediction models with nearly identical results. In more complex domains, the exact action predicted by psychological models is not even clear, and machine learning models are even less accurate. Nonetheless, we present a novel approach of creating hybrid methods that incorporate features from psychological models in conjunction with machine learning in order to create significantly improved models for predicting people's decisions. To demonstrate these claims, we present an overview of previous and new results, taken from representative domains ranging from a relatively simple optimization problem and complex domains such as negotiation and coordination without communication. (shrink)

De l'apathie de l'âme humaine, ou, L'incapacité de l'âme de se sentir, et l'absence de faculté de sentir en elle, alors que notre oragnisme vivant possède ces qualités -- Sur les idées distinctes des choses qui appartiennent soit à notre âme, soit à notre corps organique vivant -- Traité de l'art de philosopher avec simplicité et précision.

This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process B; availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value (...) is available. These heuristics are highly economical and usually effective, but they lead to systematic and predictable errors. A better understanding of these heuristics and of the biases to which they lead could improve judgements and decisions in situations of uncertainty. (shrink)

This pioneering work in the history of science, which originated in a series of three Gauss Seminars given at Princeton University in 1984, demonstrated how the roots of the scientific revolution lay in medieval scholasticism.

Despite the fact that six years have passed since 9/11, the Pentagon's recent decision to try six Guantanamo detainees for capital crimes such as terrorism and support of terrorism made national headlines. William Glaberson, "U.S. Charges 6 With Key Roles in 9/11 Attacks", N.Y. Times, Feb. 11, 2008, at A1. In this Debate, Professors Amos N. Guiora, of the University of Utah, and John T. Parry, of Lewis & Clark Law School, attempt to settle the question of what sort (...) of forum is most appropriate to try the thousands of individuals in U.S. custody who are suspected of terrorism. Professor Guiora considers three forum options: treaty-based international terror courts, traditional Article III courts, and a hybrid option he calls domestic terror courts. Ultimately, Professor Guiora argues in favor of domestic terror courts, which he describes as being able to balance the legitimate rights of the individual with the equally legitimate national security rights of the state. He considers this option to be the most practical and expedient policy solution, necessitated by an untenable tension between the understanding that some of the detainees present a genuine threat to American national security, and an awareness that indefinite detention violates constitutional principles and fundamental concepts of morality. Professor Parry agrees that current U.S. policy toward detainees has been misguided, but does not believe that innovations of the sort proposed by Professor Guiora are necessary. Rather, he suggests that policymakers should choose Article III courts rather than hybrid courts for trials of suspected terrorists, with military courts as a fallback option. Professor Parry points to research that shows that the federal government is often able to prosecute suspected terrorists in federal court, and therefore considers alternative proposals to Article III courts to be solution[s] in search of a problem. Professor Parry realizes that trial in federal court will not be possible for every suspected terrorist, and concludes that, [f]or people who pose a risk but whose conduct may not violate federal criminal law, prolonged preventive detention is the best choice. (shrink)

Ziel dieses Buches ist die indirekte und unvollendete Moderne/Postmoderne-Debatte zwischen der in Frankfurt von Jürgen Habermas und Karl-Otto Apel vertretenen Diskursphilosophie und dem in Paris von Jean-François Lyotard inaugurierten Postmodernen Poststrukturalismus wieder aufzunehmen. Da diese beiden Positionen die differenzierten Erben der Aufklärung bzw. der Lumière vertreten, entweder Rationalität oder Ästhetik betonen, jeweils die Moderne oder die Postmoderne verteidigen und sich partielle Aspekte der Philosophie Immanuel Kants aneignen, führt diese Debatte zu der Annahme einer scheinbaren Inkompatibilität zwischen zwei Programmen. Um diese (...) Inkompatibilität in Frage zu stellen, wird die Perspektive einer sich transformierenden kritischen Theorie vorgeschlagen, die zurück zu Kants Kritik der Urteilskraft führen muß. In der Moderne/Postmoderne-Debatte handelt es sich also um zwei Erben der europäischen Aufklärung, die Rekurs auf Immanuel Kant nehmen, aber differenzierte Bezüge zu Rationalität und Ästhetik haben. Dies führt zu spannenden Auseinandersetzungen über Universalität und Pluralität. So erklärt sich der Titel Im Zwielicht der Aufklärung. (shrink)

When does a particular radioactive atom decay? Where will a particular electron be and with what velocity will it move ?

The systematic comparison of Avicenna’s Ilāhiyyāt of the Šifā' with Aristotle’s Metaphysics , accomplished for the first time in the present volume, provides a detailed account of Avicenna’s reworking of the epistemological profile and contents of the Metaphysics and a comprehensive investigation of this latter’s transmission in pre-Avicennian Greek and Arabic philosophy.

This book offers a fresh account of one of the remarkable figures in the Renaissance, Giovanni Pico della Mirandola (1463-1494), by focusing on a neglected aspect of his work; his reading of scholasticism and its reception in the fifteenth century.

This book presents the definitive exposition of 'prospect theory', a compelling alternative to the classical utility theory of choice. Building on the 1982 volume, Judgement Under Uncertainty, this book brings together seminal papers on prospect theory from economists, decision theorists, and psychologists, including the work of the late Amos Tversky, whose contributions are collected here for the first time. While remaining within a rational choice framework, prospect theory delivers more accurate, empirically verified predictions in key test cases, as well (...) as helping to explain many complex, real-world puzzles. In this volume, it is brought to bear on phenomena as diverse as the principles of legal compensation, the equity premium puzzle in financial markets, and the number of hours that New York cab drivers choose to drive on rainy days. Theoretically elegant and empirically robust, this volume shows how prospect theory has matured into a new science of decision making. (shrink)

Amos departs from Austin, who Amos considered "the true founder of the science of law", in important fundamentals. In this text, Amos sets out to draw a "clear line of demarcation between ethical & legal conceptions".

"Perceptions of Jewish History scintillates with original ideas and insights. It will appeal to a broad audience." --Michael A. Signer, University of Notre Dame "Students of the Jewish past will welcome this volume; it will also attract readers with the widest possible range of interests." --Robert Chazan, New York University.

El presente trabajo pretende ser una reflexión teórica sobre las rupturas y nuevas articulaciones de las formas de movilización política en el periodo postcrisis. Proponemos que en la década de 2010, catalizadas por las tecnologías digitales, cristalizan tres grandes rupturas: socioeconómicas, en las que la precarización de las condiciones laborales y vitales supone la reemergencia de una crítica social material; temporales, en las que la dinámica aceleradora del capitalismo tardío intensifica la primacía del corto plazo; y socioculturales, en las que (...) la fragmentación se traduce en una sensación de inseguridad e incertidumbre. Todo ello deriva en una transformación en las formas de movilización, que tienden hacia una acción colectiva efímera, espasmódica. Esta puede dar pie al surgimiento del gran evento, donde lo primordial es juntar físicamente a personas y recuperar el sentido de comunidad. (shrink)

Presents Maimonides' messianic beliefs as stemming from his views of the structure of nature and the course of history. The author argues that Maimonides saw the messianic era as an historical period on one hand, and as a Utopian era of eternal peace and the recognition of God on the other.