In Unbiased Stereology, the authors present a practical guide to making unbiased 3D measurements using microscopy. Stereology is the statistical inference of geometric parameters from spatially sampled information; it is considered unbiased when the test probes are positioned in an appropriately random manner. Now that unbiased stereology is required for nerve-cell counts in neurotoxicology by the FDA and by many journals before the acceptance of an article or study, this book is essential reading. It includes only (...) those stereological techniques that have been tried and tested by actual application. Specific topics covered include: random sampling and random geometry; the estimation of feature volume, surface, length, number and mean particle size; as well as statistics for stereologists. (shrink)

The prevalence of nonpaternity in human societies is difficult to establish. To obtain a current and fairly unbiased estimate of the nonpaternity rate in Germany, we analysed a dataset consisting of 971 children and their parents in whom human leukocyte antigen (HLA) typing had been carried out in the context of bone marrow transplantation. In this sample, nine exclusions (0.93%) could be identified on the basis of more than 300 HLA-haplotypes defined by four HLA genes. Given this number of (...) exclusions, a maximum likelihood estimate of the nonpaternity rate in the population of 0.94% was obtained with asymptotic 95% confidence limits of 0.33% and 1.55%, respectively. This result is in accordance with recent surveys as well as findings from Switzerland for a comparable sample, and it suggests that earlier estimates of the nonpaternity rate which were often in excess of 10% may have been largely exaggerated. (shrink)

We describe a computational model of two central aspects of people's probabilistic reasoning: descriptive probability estimation and inferential probability judgment. This model assumes that people's reasoning follows standard frequentist probability theory, but it is subject to random noise. This random noise has a regressive effect in descriptive probability estimation, moving probability estimates away from normative probabilities and toward the center of the probability scale. This random noise has an anti-regressive effect in inferential judgement, however. These regressive and anti-regressive effects explain (...) various reliable and systematic biases seen in people's descriptive probability estimation and inferential probability judgment. This model predicts that these contrary effects will tend to cancel out in tasks that involve both descriptive estimation and inferential judgement, leading to unbiased responses in those tasks. We test this model by applying it to one such task, described by Gallistel et al. ). Participants' median responses in this task were unbiased, agreeing with normative probability theory over the full range of responses. Our model captures the pattern of unbiased responses in this task, while simultaneously explaining systematic biases away from normatively correct probabilities seen in other tasks. (shrink)

Analysts often use data-driven approaches to supplement their knowledge when selecting covariates for effect estimation. Multiple variable selection procedures for causal effect estimation have been devised in recent years, but additional developments are still required to adequately address the needs of analysts. We propose a generalized Bayesian causal effect estimation algorithm to perform variable selection and produce double robust estimates of causal effects for binary or continuous exposures and outcomes. GBCEE employs a prior distribution that targets the selection of true (...) confounders and predictors of the outcome for the unbiased estimation of causal effects with reduced standard errors. The Bayesian machinery allows GBCEE to directly produce inferences for its estimate. In simulations, GBCEE was observed to perform similarly or to outperform DR alternatives. Its ability to directly produce inferences is also an important advantage from a computational perspective. The method is finally illustrated for the estimation of the effect of meeting physical activity recommendations on the risk of hip or upper-leg fractures among older women in the study of osteoporotic fractures. The 95% confidence interval produced by GBCEE is 61% narrower than that of a DR estimator adjusting for all potential confounders in this illustration. (shrink)

Observations with respect to the relationship between symptoms and diseases can seriously be biased by selection phenomena. This selection may occur from the general population, via consultation behavior, diagnostic and therapeutic activities of the general practitioner, and by referral.Relationships may be suggested and reproduced even if they do not exist in unselected populations, as a product of diagnostic routines. Correction for selection bias can only be achieved by choosing proper comparison groups. While this can be done in a general practice (...) setting, this is almost impossible after referral, as is demonstrated in this paper. Surprisingly, the most unbiased estimation of the relationship between symptoms and diseases after referral can be made from patient groups that are referred for reason unrelated to the disease under study. (shrink)

Researchers are often faced with attempting to estimate a correlation based on the aggregation of sample rs either from several samples or from repeated measures within a single sample. The usual approach is either to average the observed correlations or to average the Fisher’s z- transformed rs and to back-transform the average z value. This note describes a minimum-variance unbiased estimator for the situation that is superior to either approach and is also simple to compute.

We revisit John Worrall’s old but still prominent argument against the view that randomization balances the impact of both known and unknown confounders across the treatment and control arms. We argue that his argument involving indefinitely many possible confounders is at odds with statistical theory as it (1) presumes that the purpose of randomized studies is obtaining perfect point estimates for which perfect balance is needed; (2) mistakes equalizing each confounder with the overall (average) impact of all confounders, and (3) (...) assumes that the joint effect of an infinite series of confounders cannot be bounded. We defend the role of randomization in balancing the impact of confounders across the treatment and control arms by putting forward the statistical sense of the balance claim. It involves the following three commitments: (1) randomization balances confounders in expectancy, (2) for RCTs to deliver unbiased estimates of the causal effect (true average treatment effect), the balance in the average effect of all confounders and not balancing each confounder is sufficient, and (3) randomization allows for calculating the probability of deviating from the balance. The paper includes a review of how the balance claim has been understood so far and discusses recent arguments supporting randomization balancing the impact of confounders in expectancy and the crucial role of the average impact of all actual confounders, and shows how statistical analysis of RCTs conducted both at the design and analysis stage makes possible estimating the probabilities of deviating from the balance. (shrink)

The purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate two diagnostic classification models (DCMs) for scoring ordinal item data. We first applied the proposed models to an operational dataset and compared their performance to an epitome of current polytomous DCMs in which the ordered data structure is ignored. Findings suggest that the much more parsimonious models that we proposed performed similarly to the current polytomous DCMs and offered useful item-level information in addition to option-level information. We then performed a (...) small simulation study using the applied study condition and demonstrated that the proposed models can provide unbiased parameter estimates and correctly classify individuals. In practice, the proposed models can accommodate much smaller sample sizes than current polytomous DCMs and thus prove useful in many small-scale testing scenarios. (shrink)

In Instrumental Variables (IV) estimation, the effect of an instrument on an endogenous variable may vary across the sample. In this case, IV produces a local average treatment effect (LATE), and if monotonicity does not hold, then no effect of interest is identified. In this paper, I calculate the weighted average of treatment effects that is identified under general first-stage effect heterogeneity, which is generally not the average treatment effect among those affected by the instrument. I then describe a simple (...) set of data-driven approaches to modeling variation in the effect of the instrument. These approaches identify a Super-Local Average Treatment Effect (SLATE) that weights treatment effects by the corresponding instrument effect more heavily than LATE. Even when first-stage heterogeneity is poorly modeled, these approaches considerably reduce the impact of small-sample bias compared to standard IV and unbiased weak-instrument IV methods, and can also make results more robust to violations of monotonicity. In application to a published study with a strong instrument, the preferred approach reduces error by about 19% in small (N ≈ 1, 000) subsamples, and by about 13% in larger (N ≈ 33, 000) subsamples. (shrink)

We study experimentally in the laboratory the situation when individuals have to report their private information about a variable to a public authority that then makes inference about the true values given a known variable using a regression technique. It is assumed that individuals prefer this predicted value to be as close as possible to their true value. Consistent with the theoretical literature, we show that subjects misrepresent their private information more when an ordinary least squares regression is implemented than (...) when the so-called resistant line estimator is employed. The latter extends the median voter theorem to the two-dimensional setting and belongs to the family of robust estimation techniques. In fact, we find that OLS involves serious biases but the RL estimation is empirically unbiased. Furthermore, subjects never earn less when the RL is applied. (shrink)

Background: Primary open-angle glaucoma patients exhibit widespread white matter degeneration throughout their visual pathways. Whether this degeneration starts at the pre- or post-geniculate pathways remains unclear. In this longitudinal study, we assess the progression of WM degeneration exhibited by the pre-geniculate optic tracts and the post-geniculate optic radiations of POAG patients over time, aiming to determine the source and pattern of spread of this degeneration.Methods: Diffusion-weighted MRI scans were acquired for 12 POAG patients and 14 controls at two time-points 5.4 (...) ± 2.1 years apart. Fiber density, an estimate of WM axonal density, was computed for the OTs and ORs of all participants in an unbiased longitudinal population template space. First, FD was compared between POAG patients and the controls at time-point 1 and time-point 2 independently. Secondly, repeated measures analysis was performed for FD change in POAG patients between the two time-points. Finally, we compared the rate of FD change over time between the two groups.Results: Compared to the controls, POAG patients exhibited significantly lower FD in the left OT at TP1 and in both OTs and the left OR at TP2. POAG patients showed a significant loss of FD between the time-points in the right OT and both ORs, while the left OR showed a significantly higher rate of FD loss in POAG patients compared to the controls.Conclusions: We find longitudinal progression of neurodegenerative WM changes in both the pre- and post-geniculate visual pathways of POAG patients. The pattern of changes suggests that glaucomatous WM degeneration starts at the pre-geniculate pathways and then spreads to the post-geniculate pathways. Furthermore, we find evidence that the trans-synaptic spread of glaucomatous degeneration to the post-geniculate pathways is a prolonged process which continues in the absence of detectable pre-geniculate degenerative progression. This suggests the presence of a time window for salvaging intact post-geniculate pathways, which could prove to be a viable therapeutic target in the future. (shrink)

SummaryIn 1968, a prospective study was started in collaboration with the Family Planning Association to try to provide a balanced view of the beneficial and harmful effects of different methods of contraception. This investigation is now in progress at seventeen clinics and over 17,000 women are under observation. At the time of recruitment, all these women were married white British subjects, aged 25–39 years, who voluntarily agreed to participate. Fifty-six per cent were using oral contraceptives, 25% were using a diaphragm (...) and 19% were using an intrauterine device. During follow-up each woman is questioned at return visits to the clinic and a record of pregnancies and their outcome, hospital referrals, changes in contraceptive methods and the results of cervical smears, is accumulated. Women who default are sent a postal questionnaire and, if this is not returned, are telephoned or visited in their homes to collect the necessary information.So far, data obtained during 56,000 woman-years of observation are available for analysis. Follow-up has been maintained with an annual lapse rate of about 0.3%due to withdrawal of co-operation or loss of contact; adherence to the method of contraception in use at recruitment has been reasonably good, and the reporting of pregnancies and hospital admissions appears to have been both reliable and unbiased.The present data include only 24 deaths, so the mortality associated with different contraceptive methods cannot yet be estimated. With regard to morbidity, however, our preliminary results closely resemble those obtained in the prospective study carried out by the Royal College of General Practitioners and in the principal retrospective studies carried out in Britain and the United States. Women who used oral contraceptives at the start of the study experienced adeficiencyof hospital referrals for cancer, benign lesions of the breast, menstrual disorders other than amenorrhoea, duodenal ulcer, and retention cysts of the ovary; they showed anexcessof referrals for cerebrovascular disease, cervical erosion, skin disorders, self-poisoning, migraine, venous thrombosis and embolism, hayfever, gallbladder disease, amenorrhoea, and sterility. Women who used a diaphragm showed adeficiencyof hospital referrals for carcinoma-in-situ and dysplastic lesions of the cervix uteri and accidental injury; and anexcessof referrals for haemorrhoids and cystitis. Women who used an IUD experienced anexcessof hospital referrals for anaemia, varicose veins and salpingitis. About half of these differences were predicted from other studies while some suggestive evidence already existed for a further five. Of the remaining six, some probably reflect the influence of selective factors or chance.Multiple pregnancies, stillbirths, malformations, the sex ratio and birthweight showed no consistent relationship to method of contraception. The outcome of unplanned pregnancies occurring in women using an IUD, however, was remarkably unfavourable both in terms of ectopic gestation and miscarriage.Clear evidence was found of impairment of fertility after discontinuation of oral contraceptives. Whether this is likely to lead to permanent sterility in some women is uncertain.The study has provided data on the efficacy of a wide variety of contraceptive methods. In general the failure rates are in keeping with those obtained in other large-scale studies, save that those for the diaphragm and the sheath are much lower than those usually quoted.The available evidence does not yet allow a final balance to be struck between the benefits and risks associated with the new methods of contraception that have become widely used during the last two decades. It seems clear, however, that there are no material risks associated with the use of the diaphragm apart from the risk of pregnancy and that there may be some unintended benefits. (shrink)

The original target tracking algorithm based on a single model has long been unable to meet the complex and changeable characteristics of the target, and then there are problems such as poor tracking accuracy, target loss, and model mismatch. The interactive multimodel algorithm uses multiple motion models to track the target, obtains the degree of adaptation between the actual motion state of the target and each model according to the calculated likelihood function, and then combines the updated weight values of (...) each filter to obtain a weighted sum. Therefore, the interactive multimodel algorithm can achieve better performance. This paper proposes an improved interactive multimodel algorithm that can achieve player tracking and trajectory feature matching. First, this paper proposes an improved Kalman filtering algorithm. This method is developed from the unbiased conversion measurement Kalman filter, which can obtain more accurate target state and covariance estimation. Secondly, using the parallel processing mode of the IMM algorithm to efficiently solve the data association between multiple filters, the IMM-IKF model is proposed. Finally, in order to solve the problem of low computational efficiency and high mismatch rate in image feature point matching, a method of introducing a minimum spanning tree in two-view matching is proposed. Experimental results show that the improved IMM-IKF algorithm can quickly respond to changes in the target state and can find the matching path with the lowest matching cost. In the case of ensuring the matching accuracy, the real-time performance of image matching is ensured. (shrink)

The gambler’s fallacy is the tendency to expect random processes to switch more often than they actually do—for example, to think that after a string of tails, a heads is more likely. It’s often taken to be evidence for irrationality. It isn’t. Rather, it’s to be expected from a group of Bayesians who begin with causal uncertainty, and then observe unbiased data from an (in fact) statistically independent process. Although they converge toward the truth, they do so in an (...) asymmetric way—ruling out “streaky” hypotheses more quickly than “switchy” ones. As a result, the majority (and the average) exhibit the gambler’s fallacy. If they have limited memory, this tendency persists even with arbitrarily-large amounts of data. Indeed, such Bayesians exhibit a variety of the empirical trends found in studies of the gambler’s fallacy: they expect switches after short streaks but continuations after long ones; these nonlinear expectations vary with their familiarity with the causal system; their predictions depend on the sequence they’ve just seen; they produce sequences that are too switchy; and they exhibit greater rates of gambler’s reasoning when forming binary predictions than when forming probability estimates. In short: what’s been thought to be evidence for irrationality may instead be rational responses to limited data and memory. (shrink)

Investigating the causal relationship between exposure and time-to-event outcome is an important topic in biomedical research. Previous literature has discussed the potential issues of using hazard ratio (HR) as the marginal causal effect measure due to noncollapsibility. In this article, we advocate using restricted mean survival time (RMST) difference as a marginal causal effect measure, which is collapsible and has a simple interpretation as the difference of area under survival curves over a certain time horizon. To address both measured and (...) unmeasured confounding, a matched design with sensitivity analysis is proposed. Matching is used to pair similar treated and untreated subjects together, which is generally more robust than outcome modeling due to potential misspecifications. Our propensity score matched RMST difference estimator is shown to be asymptotically unbiased, and the corresponding variance estimator is calculated by accounting for the correlation due to matching. Simulation studies also demonstrate that our method has adequate empirical performance and outperforms several competing methods used in practice. To assess the impact of unmeasured confounding, we develop a sensitivity analysis strategy by adapting the E-value approach to matched data. We apply the proposed method to the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC) to examine the causal effect of smoking on stroke-free survival. (shrink)

We consider a situation in which individuals search for accurate decisions without direct feedback on their accuracy, but with information about the decisions made by peers in their group. The “wisdom of crowds” hypothesis states that the average judgment of many individuals can give a good estimate of, for example, the outcomes of sporting events and the answers to trivia questions. Two conditions for the application of wisdom of crowds are that estimates should be independent and unbiased. Here, we (...) study how individuals integrate social information when answering trivia questions with answers that range between 0% and 100%. We find that, consistent with the wisdom of crowds hypothesis, average performance improves with group size. However, individuals show a consistent bias to produce estimates that are insufficiently extreme. We find that social information provides significant, albeit small, improvement to group performance. Outliers with answers far from the correct answer move toward the position of the group mean. Given that these outliers also tend to be nearer to 50% than do the answers of other group members, this move creates group polarization away from 50%. By looking at individual performance over different questions we find that some people are more likely to be affected by social influence than others. There is also evidence that people differ in their competence in answering questions, but lack of competence is not significantly correlated with willingness to change guesses. We develop a mathematical model based on these results that postulates a cognitive process in which people first decide whether to take into account peer guesses, and if so, to move in the direction of these guesses. The size of the move is proportional to the distance between their own guess and the average guess of the group. This model closely approximates the distribution of guess movements and shows how outlying incorrect opinions can be systematically removed from a group resulting, in some situations, in improved group performance. However, improvement is only predicted for cases in which the initial guesses of individuals in the group are biased. (shrink)

Sentiment analysis is the field of natural language processing to analyze opinionated data, for the purpose of decision making. An opinion is a statement about a subject which expresses the sentiments as well as the emotions of the opinion makers on the topic. In this paper, we develop a sentiment analysis tool namely SENTI-METER. This tool estimates the success rate of social campaigns based on the algorithms we developed that analyze the sentiment of word as well as blog. Social campaigns (...) have a huge impact on the mindset of people. One such campaign was launched in India on October 2, 2014, named Swachh Bharat Abhiyan. Our tool computes an elaborated analysis of Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, which examines the success rate of this social campaign. Here, we performed the location-wise analysis of the campaign and predict the degree of polarity of tweets along with the monthly and weekly analysis of the tweets. The experiments were conducted in five phases namely extraction and preprocessing of tweets, tokenization, sentiment evaluation of a line, sentiment evaluation of a blog and analysis. Our tool is also capable of handling transliterated words. Unbiased tweets were extracted from Twitter related to this specific campaign, and on comparing with manual tagging we were able to achieve 84.47 % accuracy using unigram machine learning approach. This approach helps the government to implement the social campaigns effectively for the betterment of the society. (shrink)

This article discusses the conditions under which the use of expert knowledge may provide an adequate response to public concerns about high-tech, late modern risks. Scientific risk estimation has more than once led to expert controversies. When these controversies occur, the public at large – as a media audience – faces a paradoxical situation: on the one hand it must rely on the expertise of scientists as represented in the mass media, but on the other it is confused by competing (...) expert claims in the absence of any clear-cut standard to judge these claims. The question then arises, what expertise can the public trust? I argue that expert controversies cannot be settled by appealing to neutral, impartial expertise, because each use of expert knowledge in applied contexts is inextricably bound up with normative and evaluative assumptions. This value-laden nature of expert contributions, however, does not necessarily force us to adopt a relativist conception of expert knowledge. Nor does it imply active involvement of ordinary citizens in scientific risk estimation – as some authors seem to suggest. The value-laden, or partisan, nature of expert statements rather requires an unbiased process of expert dispute in which experts and counter-experts can participate. Moreover, instead of being a reason for discrediting expert contributions, experts'' commitment may enhance public trustworthiness because it enlarges the scope of perspectives taken into account, to include public concerns. Experts who share the same worries as (some of) the public could be expected to voice these worries at the level of expert dispute. Thus, a broadly shaped expert dispute, that is accessible to both proponents and opponents, is a prerequisite for public trust. (shrink)

This month the American Journal of Bioethics examines the intersectionality of medicine, ethics, and race. In “Race, Power, and COVID-19: A Call for Advocacy Within Bioethics,” Mithani and colleagu...

(2013). An Unbiased Response to the Open Peer Commentaries on “Does Consent Bias Research?”. The American Journal of Bioethics: Vol. 13, No. 4, pp. W1-W4. doi: 10.1080/15265161.2013.769824.

Excerpt from An Estimate of the Manners and Principles of the Times Quamvis Pontica Pinus, Silqilia nobilis, Jae'tcs 8c Genus 8: Nomcn inutile. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, (...) such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works. (shrink)

Background Moral distress is a common challenge among professional nurses when caring for their patients, especially when they need to make rapid decisions. Therefore, leaving moral distress unconsidered may jeopardize patient quality of care, safety, and satisfaction. Aim To estimate moral distress among nurses. Methods This systematic review and meta-analysis conducted systematic search in Scopus, PubMed, ProQuest, ISI Web of Knowledge, and PsycInfo up to end of February 2022. Methodological quality of included studies was assessed using the Newcastle Ottawa checklist. (...) Data from included studies were pooled by meta-analysis with random effect model in STATA software version 14. The selected key measure was mean score of moral distress total score with its’ 95% Confidence Interval was reported. Subgroup analyses and meta-regressions were conducted to identify possible sources of heterogeneity and potentially influencing variables on moral distress. Funnel plots and Begg’s Tests were used to assess publication bias. The Jackknife method was used for sensitivity analysis. Ethical consideration The protocol of this project was registered in the PROSPERO database under decree code of CRD42021267773. Results Eighty-six manuscripts with 19,537 participants from 21 countries were included. The pooled estimated mean score of moral distress was 2.55 on a 0–10 scale [95% Confidence Interval: 2.27–2.84, I2: 98.4%, Tau2:0.94]. Publication bias and small study effect was ruled out. Moral distress significantly decreased in the COVID-19 pandemic versus before. Nurses working in developing countries experienced higher level of moral distress compared to their counterparts in developed countries. Nurses' workplace (e.g., hospital ward) was not linked to severity of moral disturbance. Conclusion The results of the study showed a low level of pooled estimated score for moral distress. Although the score of moral distress was not high, nurses working in developing countries reported higher levels of moral distress than those working in developed countries. Therefore, it is necessary that future studies focus on creating a supportive environment in hospitals and medical centers for nurses to reduce moral distress and improve healthcare. (shrink)

This article provides a method for estimating the bounds of transaction costs in horizontal mergers. Consider, for example, a completed monopoly merger in linear Cournot oligopolies with 10 symmetric firms. The method shows that its transaction costs are at most 25% (78%) of total premerger profits if there is zero (100%) excess capacity. Such estimations can be extended in a straightforward manner to other mergers and other oligopoly models. The estimation is based both on the profitability precondition, and on the (...) non-empty core precondition, which postulates that the split of a merger’s profits be in its core. The article shows that the core in linear Cournot oligopolies has a non-empty interior, and indicates that the non-empty core precondition also sheds new lights on understanding important issues such as the stylized fact that mergers are likely to occur in markets plagued by excess capacities; why profitable mergers might not be formed; and why completed mergers might break up in the future. (shrink)

Responding to recent concerns about the reliability of the published literature in psychology and other disciplines, we formed the X-Phi Replicability Project to estimate the reproducibility of experimental philosophy. Drawing on a representative sample of 40 x-phi studies published between 2003 and 2015, we enlisted 20 research teams across 8 countries to conduct a high-quality replication of each study in order to compare the results to the original published findings. We found that x-phi studies – as represented in our sample (...) – successfully replicated about 70% of the time. We discuss possible reasons for this relatively high replication rate in the field of experimental philosophy and offer suggestions for best research practices going forward. (shrink)

The divergence point analysis procedure is aimed at obtaining an estimate of the onset of the influence of an experimental variable on response latencies (e.g., fixation duration, reaction time). The procedure involves generating survival curves for two conditions, and using a bootstrapping technique to estimate the timing of the earliest discernible divergence between curves. In the present paper, several key extensions for this procedure were proposed and evaluated by conducting simulations and by reanalyzing data from previous studies. Our findings indicate (...) that the modified versions of the procedure performed substantially better than the original procedure under conditions of low experimental power. Furthermore, unlike the original procedure, the modified procedures provided divergence point estimates for individual participants and permitted testing the significance of the difference between estimates across conditions. The advantages of the modified procedures are illustrated, the theoretical and methodological implications are discussed, and promising future directions are outlined. (shrink)

One of the chief innovations in medieval adaptations of Aristotelian psychology was the expansion of Aristotle's notion of imagination orphantasiato include a variety of distinct perceptual powers known collectively as the internal senses. Amongst medieval philosophers in the Arabic world, Avicenna offers one of the most complex and sophisticated accounts of the internal senses. Within his list of internal senses, Avicenna includes a faculty known as “estimation”, to which various functions are assigned in a wide variety of contexts. Although many (...) philosophers in the Arabic world as well as in the Latin West accepted Avicenna's positing of an estimative faculty, Avicenna's best-known critics, al-Ghazâlî and Averroes, found Avicenna's arguments in support of a distinct estimative faculty problematic. For different reasons, both Averroes and Ghazâlî raised the basic question of whether one needed to posit a distinct faculty of estimation to supplement the perceptual abilities of the other internal senses, and whether the notion of an estimative power as defined by Avicenna was internally coherent. Such criticisms suggest that the Avicennian conception of estimation is not entirely unambiguous, and that a correct understanding of Avicenna's motivations for delineating an estimative power requires a careful study of the diverse activities assigned to it throughout Avicenna's philosophical writings. (shrink)

Standard impossibility theorems on judgment aggregation over logically connected propositions either use a controversial systematicity condition or apply only to agendas of propositions with rich logical connections. Are there any serious impossibilities without these restrictions? We prove an impossibility theorem without requiring systematicity that applies to most standard agendas: Every judgment aggregation function (with rational inputs and outputs) satisfying a condition called unbiasedness is dictatorial (or effectively dictatorial if we remove one of the agenda conditions). Our agenda conditions are tight. (...) When applied illustratively to (strict) preference aggregation represented in our model, the result implies that every unbiased social welfare function with universal domain is effectively dictatorial. (shrink)

When Genotype × Environment (G × E) interactions are present, heritability estimates are not interpretable. Mealey cites abundant evidence for G × E interactions in the etiology of sociopathy, thereby completely undermining estimates of the heritability of sociopathy which form the foundation of her model. Without proper evidence for a genetic basis of sociopathy, Mealey's sociobiological model collapses under its own great weight.

The causal structure of Darwinian evolution by natural selection is investigated. Its basic scheme is reproduction resulting from a feedback loop driven by internal and external causes. Causation internal to the loop connects genotype, development, phenotype, and fitness, with environmental constraints on the latter preventing runaway reproduction. External causes driving the core loop are environmental change and genetic change. This basic causal structure is complicated by modern additions such as control of mutation rate, niche construction, interactions between evolution and development, (...) and epigenetic effects. In this article it is argued that at least one of these additions, control of mutation rate, produces an additional feedback loop incorporating a continual, targeted modulation of stochasticity, and thereby produces an unusual form of causation. This form of causation entangles deterministic and stochastic causation in such a way that it imposes, in effect, an active, goal-driven role on the organisms in a line of descent. The goal is defined by the factor driving the stochasticity, which must be regarded as an intrinsic estimate made implicitly by the organism of its own fitness. The estimator itself is an evolved property of the organism, and is aligned with the apparent goal-directedness of natural selection. (shrink)

Despite their importance in public discourse, numbers in the range of 1 million to 1 trillion are notoriously difficult to understand. We examine magnitude estimation by adult Americans when placing large numbers on a number line and when qualitatively evaluating descriptions of imaginary geopolitical scenarios. Prior theoretical conceptions predict a log-to-linear shift: People will either place numbers linearly or will place numbers according to a compressive logarithmic or power-shaped function (Barth & Paladino, ; Siegler & Opfer, ). While about half (...) of people did estimate numbers linearly over this range, nearly all the remaining participants placed 1 million approximately halfway between 1 thousand and 1 billion, but placed numbers linearly across each half, as though they believed that the number words “thousand, million, billion, trillion” constitute a uniformly spaced count list. Participants in this group also tended to be optimistic in evaluations of largely ineffective political strategies, relative to linear number-line placers. The results indicate that the surface structure of number words can heavily influence processes for dealing with numbers in this range, and it can amplify the possibility that analogous surface regularities are partially responsible for parallel phenomena in children. In addition, these results have direct implications for lawmakers and scientists hoping to communicate effectively with the public. (shrink)

The statistical evidence for the detrimental effect of exposure to low levels of lead on the cognitive capacities of children has been debated for several decades. In this paper I describe how two techniques from artificial intelligence and statistics help make the statistical evidence for the accepted epidemiological conclusion seem decisive. The first is a variable-selection routine in TETRAD III for finding causes, and the second a Bayesian estimation of the parameter reflecting the causal influence of Actual Lead Exposure, a (...) latent variable, on the measured IQ score of middle class suburban children. (shrink)

Characterizing the genetic structure of populations is of importance to evolutionary biology, to human disease gene mapping, and to forensic science. Sewall Wright introduced a set of F-statistics to describe population structure in 1951, and he emphasized that these quantities were ratios of variances. Responding to uncertainty over the best way to estimate F-statistics, Weir and Cockerham published a method-of-moments set of estimators in 1984. This paper continues to be widely cited, with over 7,000 citations to date. Some background to (...) the publishing history of the Weir and Cockerham paper is given here, along with subsequent developments and a discussion of current uses of Wright's F-statistics. (shrink)

Evapotranspiration represents the water requirement of plants during their growing season, and its accurate measurement at the farm is essential for agricultural water planners and managers. Field measurements of evapotranspiration have always been associated with many difficulties that have led researchers to seek a way to remotely measure this component in horticultural and agricultural areas. This study aims to investigate an indirect approach for daily rice crop evapotranspiration measurement by machine learning techniques and the least available climatic variables. For this (...) purpose, daily meteorological variables were obtained from three ground meteorological stations in rice cultivation regions of northern Iran during 2003–2016. The ETc rates were calculated by seven meteorological variables, the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equation, and the regional calibrated rice crop coefficient and considered as the reference data. The MLs, including Multilayer Perceptron, Radial Basis Function, Generalized Regression Neural Network, and Group Method of Data Handling, were utilized for ETc modeling. Different input combinations were applied, based on the use of minimum effective variables as input. Results showed that the models showed the most accurate performances in the input combination of four climatic variables: sunshine duration, maximum temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. Investigating the accuracy of models in rice growth phases showed that the least estimation error belonged to the initial growing stage, which increased during the mid-season and late-season growing stages. A comparison of the models showed that the GMDH model performed better against the other competitors. For this model, both the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and R2 were greater than 0.98, and the Root Mean Square Error ranged between 0.214 and 0.234 mm per day in all stations. The current approach showed promising results in rice evapotranspiration modeling by only four common meteorological variables and can be reliably applied for indirect measurement of this variable over the rice farms. The studied approach will have research value for rice and other crops in similar/different climatic conditions. (shrink)

Professor Meehl [2] has pointed out a very significant problem in the methodology of psychological research, indicating that statistical tests of psychological hypotheses against a null hypothesis are loaded in favor of eventual success at rejecting the null hypothesis. In my opinion this is not, however, a contrast between physics and psychology, but rather between the method of parameter estimation and that of the null hypothesis in the tradition of Fisher. A physicist could use the null hypothesis method as well (...) as the psychologist. The fact that he doesn't is probably related to the more advanced state of his measurement techniques and theoretical constructs. (shrink)

We consider the procedure for small-sample estimation of reliability parameters. The main shortcomings of the classical methods and the Bayesian approach are analyzed. Models that find robust Bayesian estimates are proposed. The sensitivity of the Bayesian estimates to the choice of the prior distribution functions is investigated using models that find upper and lower bounds. The proposed models reduce to optimization problems in the space of distribution functions.

John Brown took aim at England's higher ranks, calling out their lifestyle as "vain, luxurious, and selfish effeminacy" in a vigorous attack in his main work, An Estimate of the Manners and Principles of the Times (1757). This volume also includes four other works by Brown, as well as a tribute to Brown written by Thomas Hollis and Hollis' annotations in his personal copy of Estimate. The introduction, by David Womersley, places Brown's writings and career in the context of eighteenth-century (...) moralism and his annotations will explain now-unfamiliar words and references to contemporary events, circumstances, and personalities. (shrink)

Parameters of a Bertalanffy type of temperature dependent growth model are fitted using data from a population of stone loach ( Barbatula barbatula ). Over two periods respectively in 1990 and 2010 length data of this population has been collected at a lowland stream in the central part of the Netherlands. The estimation of the maximum length of a fully grown individual is given special attention because it is in fact found as the result of an extrapolation over a large (...) interval of the entire lifetime. It is concluded that this parameter should not at forehand be set at one fixed value for the population at that location due to varying conditions over the years. (shrink)

The notion that an independent central bank reduces a country’s inflation is a controversial hypothesis. To date, it has not been possible to satisfactorily answer this question because the complex macroeconomic structure that gives rise to the data has not been adequately incorporated into statistical analyses. We develop a causal model that summarizes the economic process of inflation. Based on this causal model and recent data, we discuss and identify the assumptions under which the effect of central bank independence on (...) inflation can be identified and estimated. Given these and alternative assumptions, we estimate this effect using modern doubly robust effect estimators, i.e., longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood estimators. The estimation procedure incorporates machine learning algorithms and is tailored to address the challenges associated with complex longitudinal macroeconomic data. We do not find strong support for the hypothesis that having an independent central bank for a long period of time necessarily lowers inflation. Simulation studies evaluate the sensitivity of the proposed methods in complex settings when certain assumptions are violated and highlight the importance of working with appropriate learning algorithms for estimation. (shrink)

The estimative power has been widely discussed in modern scholarly literature. This chapter complements the existing picture by analysing medieval Latin views concerning its role as the explanans of the social behaviour of humans and other animals. Although medieval authors rarely focus on this function, the chapter shows that the estimative power plays an important explanatory role both in philosophical psychology and political philosophy.