This book represents the fourth volume in the series Collected Papers on Advancing Uncertain Combinatorics through Graphization, Hyperization, and Uncertainization: Fuzzy, Neutrosophic, Soft, Rough, and Beyond. This volume specifically delves into the concept of the HyperUncertain Set, building on the foundational advancements introduced in previous volumes. The series aims to explore the ongoing evolution of uncertain combinatorics through innovative methodologies such as graphization, hyperization, and uncertainization. These approaches integrate and extend core concepts from fuzzy, neutrosophic, soft, and rough set theories, (...) providing robust frameworks to model and analyze the inherent complexity of real-world uncertainties. At the heart of this series lies combinatorics and set theory—cornerstones of mathematics that address the study of counting, arrangements, and the relationships between collections under defined rules. Traditionally, combinatorics has excelled in solving problems involving uncertainty, while advancements in set theory have expanded its scope to include powerful constructs like fuzzy and neutrosophic sets. These advanced sets bring new dimensions to uncertainty modeling by capturing not just binary truth but also indeterminacy and falsity. In this fourth volume, the integration of set theory with graph theory takes center stage, culminating in "graphized" structures such as hypergraphs and superhypergraphs. These structures, paired with innovations like Neutrosophic Oversets, Undersets, Offsets, and the Nonstandard Real Set, extend the boundaries of mathematical abstraction. This fusion of combinatorics, graph theory, and uncertain set theory creates a rich foundation for addressing the multidimensional and hierarchical uncertainties prevalent in both theoretical and applied domains. The book is structured into thirteen chapters, each contributing unique perspectives and advancements in the realm of HyperUncertain Sets and their related frameworks. -/- The first chapter (Advancing Traditional Set Theory with Hyperfuzzy, Hyperneutrosophic, and Hyperplithogenic Sets) explores the evolution of classical set theory to better address the complexity and ambiguity of real-world phenomena. By introducing hierarchical structures like hyperstructures and superhyperstructures—created through iterative applications of power sets—it lays the groundwork for more abstract and adaptable mathematical tools. The focus is on extending three foundational frameworks: Fuzzy Sets, Neutrosophic Sets, and Plithogenic Sets into their hyperforms: Hyperfuzzy Sets, Hyperneutrosophic Sets, and Hyperplithogenic Sets. These advanced concepts are applied across diverse fields such as statistics, clustering, evolutionary theory, topology, decision-making, probability, and language theory. The goal is to provide a robust platform for future research in this expanding area of study. The second chapter (Applications and Mathematical Properties of Hyperneutrosophic and SuperHyperneutrosophic Sets) extends the work on Hyperfuzzy, Hyperneutrosophic, and Hyperplithogenic Sets by delving into their advanced applications and mathematical foundations. Building on prior research, it specifically examines Hyperneutrosophic and SuperHyperneutrosophic Sets, exploring their integration into: Neutrosophic Logic, Cognitive Maps,Graph Neural Networks, Classifiers, and Triplet Groups. The chapter also investigates their mathematical properties and applicability in addressing uncertainties and complexities inherent in various domains. These insights aim to inspire innovative uses of hypergeneralized sets in modern theoretical and applied research. The third chapter (New Extensions of Hyperneutrosophic Sets – Bipolar, Pythagorean, Double-Valued, and Interval-Valued Sets) studies advanced variations of Neutrosophic Sets, a mathematical framework defined by three membership functions: truth (T), indeterminacy (I), and falsity (F). By leveraging the concepts of Hyperneutrosophic and SuperHyperneutrosophic Sets, the study extends: Bipolar Neutrosophic Sets, Interval-Valued Neutrosophic Sets, Pythagorean Neutrosophic Sets, and Double-Valued Neutrosophic Sets. These extensions address increasingly complex scenarios, and a brief analysis is provided to explore their potential applications and mathematical underpinnings. Building on prior research, the fourth chapter (Hyperneutrosophic Extensions of Complex, Single-Valued Triangular, Fermatean, and Linguistic Sets) expands on Neutrosophic Set theory by incorporating recent advancements in Hyperneutrosophic and SuperHyperneutrosophic Sets. The study focuses on extending: Complex Neutrosophic Sets, Single-Valued Triangular Neutrosophic Sets, Fermatean Neutrosophic Sets, and Linguistic Neutrosophic Sets. The analysis highlights the mathematical structures of these hyperextensions and explores their connections with existing set-theoretic concepts, offering new insights into managing uncertainty in multidimensional challenges. The fifth chapter (Advanced Extensions of Hyperneutrosophic Sets – Dynamic, Quadripartitioned, Pentapartitioned, Heptapartitioned, and m-Polar) delves deeper into the evolution of Neutrosophic Sets by exploring advanced frameworks designed for even more intricate applications. New extensions include: Dynamic Neutrosophic Sets, Quadripartitioned Neutrosophic Sets, Pentapartitioned Neutrosophic Sets, Heptapartitioned Neutrosophic Sets, and m-Polar Neutrosophic Sets. These developments build upon foundational research and aim to provide robust tools for addressing multidimensional and highly nuanced problems. The sixth chapter (Advanced Extensions of Hyperneutrosophic Sets – Cubic, Trapezoidal, q-Rung Orthopair, Overset, Underset, and Offset) builds upon the Neutrosophic framework, which employs truth (T), indeterminacy (I), and falsity (F) to address uncertainty. Leveraging advancements in Hyperneutrosophic and SuperHyperneutrosophic Sets, the study extends: Cubic Neutrosophic Sets, Trapezoidal Neutrosophic Sets, q-Rung Orthopair Neutrosophic Sets, Neutrosophic Oversets, Neutrosophic Undersets, and Neutrosophic Offsets. The chapter provides a brief analysis of these new set types, exploring their properties and potential applications in solving multidimensional problems. The seventh chapter (Specialized Classes of Hyperneutrosophic Sets – Support, Paraconsistent, and Faillibilist Sets) delves into unique classes of Neutrosophic Sets extended through Hyperneutrosophic and SuperHyperneutrosophic frameworks to tackle advanced theoretical challenges. The study introduces and extends: Support Neutrosophic Sets, Neutrosophic Intuitionistic Sets, Neutrosophic Paraconsistent Sets, Neutrosophic Faillibilist Sets, Neutrosophic Paradoxist and Pseudo-Paradoxist Sets, Neutrosophic Tautological and Nihilist Sets, Neutrosophic Dialetheist Sets, and Neutrosophic Trivialist Sets. These extensions address highly nuanced aspects of uncertainty, further advancing the theoretical foundation of Neutrosophic mathematics. The eight chapter (MultiNeutrosophic Sets and Refined Neutrosophic Sets) focuses on two advanced Neutrosophic frameworks: MultiNeutrosophic Sets, and Refined Neutrosophic Sets. Using Hyperneutrosophic and nn-SuperHyperneutrosophic Sets, these extensions are analyzed in detail, highlighting their adaptability to multidimensional and complex scenarios. Examples and mathematical properties are provided to showcase their practical relevance and theoretical depth. The ninth chapter (Advanced Hyperneutrosophic Set Types – Type-m, Nonstationary, Subset-Valued, and Complex Refined) explores extensions of the Neutrosophic framework, focusing on: Type-m Neutrosophic Sets, Nonstationary Neutrosophic Sets, Subset-Valued Neutrosophic Sets, and Complex Refined Neutrosophic Sets. These extensions utilize the Hyperneutrosophic and SuperHyperneutrosophic frameworks to address advanced challenges in uncertainty management, expanding their mathematical scope and practical applications. The tenth chapter (Hyperfuzzy Hypersoft Sets and Hyperneutrosophic Hypersoft Sets) integrates the principles of Fuzzy, Neutrosophic, and Soft Sets with hyperstructures to introduce: Hyperfuzzy Hypersoft Sets, and Hyperneutrosophic Hypersoft Sets. These frameworks are designed to manage complex uncertainty through hierarchical structures based on power sets, with detailed analysis of their properties and theoretical potential. The eleventh chapter (A Review of SuperFuzzy, SuperNeutrosophic, and SuperPlithogenic Sets) revisits and extends the study of advanced set concepts such as: SuperFuzzy Sets, Super-Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets,Super-Neutrosophic Sets, and SuperPlithogenic Sets, including their specialized variants like quadripartitioned, pentapartitioned, and heptapartitioned forms. The work serves as a consolidation of existing studies while highlighting potential directions for future research in hierarchical uncertainty modeling. Focusing on decision-making under uncertainty, the tweve chapter (Advanced SuperHypersoft and TreeSoft Sets) introduces six novel concepts: SuperHypersoft Rough Sets,SuperHypersoft Expert Sets, Bipolar SuperHypersoft Sets, TreeSoft Rough Sets, TreeSoft Expert Sets, and Bipolar TreeSoft Sets. Definitions, properties, and potential applications of these frameworks are explored to enhance the flexibility of soft set-based models. The final chapter (Hierarchical Uncertainty in Fuzzy, Neutrosophic, and Plithogenic Sets) provides a comprehensive survey of hierarchical uncertainty frameworks, with a focus on Plithogenic Sets and their advanced extensions: Hyperplithogenic Sets, SuperHyperplithogenic Sets. It examines relationships with other major concepts such as Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets, Vague Sets, Picture Fuzzy Sets, Hesitant Fuzzy Sets, and multi-partitioned Neutrosophic Sets, consolidating their theoretical interconnections for modeling complex systems. This volume not only reflects the dynamic interplay between theoretical rigor and practical application but also serves as a beacon for future research in uncertainty modeling, offering advanced tools to tackle the intricacies of modern challenges. (shrink)

"The Uncertain Science" argues that sociology has not freed itself from the influence of philosophy, and specifically from the search for certainty. This "foundationalism" which is characteristic of Western thought has influenced both the method adopted by sociologists, and their research practices. The authors criticize sociology for its formalism, arguing that this blunts the radicalism of its project. To regain the radical and critical edge implicit in sociology, it is necessary to adopt a comparative and historical approach which interprets social (...) science as part of societal learning. In the first part of the book the authors trace formalism to central positions in Western philosophy and examine its impact on historiography, evolutionary social thought and positivist sociology. In the second part they examine the tensions between formalism and social theory in the work of Levi Strauss and Habermas. In part three they compare modernization theory to more recent descussions of "modernity" and "postmodernity", and show the elements of continuity between these apparently contrary positions. This book should be of interest to undergraduates in sociology and philosophy. (shrink)

The second volume of “Advancing Uncertain Combinatorics through Graphization, Hyperization, and Uncertainization: Fuzzy, Neutrosophic, Soft, Rough, and Beyond” presents a deep exploration of the progress in uncertain combinatorics through innovative methodologies like graphization, hyperization, and uncertainization. This volume integrates foundational concepts from fuzzy, neutrosophic, soft, and rough set theory, among others, to further advance the field. Combinatorics and set theory, two central pillars of mathematics, focus on counting, arrangement, and the study of collections under defined rules. Combinatorics excels in handling (...) uncertainty, while set theory has evolved with concepts such as fuzzy and neutrosophic sets, which enable the modeling of complex real-world uncertainties by addressing truth, indeterminacy, and falsehood. These advancements, when combined with graph theory, give rise to novel forms of uncertain sets in "graphized" structures, including hypergraphs and superhypergraphs. Innovations such as Neutrosophic Oversets, Undersets, and Offsets, as well as the Nonstandard Real Set, build upon traditional graph concepts, pushing both theoretical and practical boundaries. The synthesis of combinatorics, set theory, and graph theory in this volume provides a robust framework for addressing the complexities and uncertainties inherent in both mathematical and real-world systems, paving the way for future research and application. In the first chapter, “A Review of the Hierarchy of Plithogenic, Neutrosophic, and Fuzzy Graphs: Survey and Applications”, the authors investigate the interrelationships among various graph classes, including Plithogenic graphs, and explore other related structures. Graph theory, a fundamental branch of mathematics, focuses on networks of nodes and edges, studying their paths, structures, and properties. A Fuzzy Graph extends this concept by assigning a membership degree between 0 and 1 to each edge and vertex, representing the level of uncertainty. The Turiyam Neutrosophic Graph is introduced as an extension of both Neutrosophic and Fuzzy Graphs, while Plithogenic graphs offer a potent method for managing uncertainty. The second chapter, “Review of Some Superhypergraph Classes: Directed, Bidirected, Soft, and Rough”, examines advanced graph structures such as directed superhypergraphs, bidirected hypergraphs, soft superhypergraphs, and rough superhypergraphs. Classical graph classes include undirected graphs, where edges lack orientation, and directed graphs, where edges have specific directions. Recent innovations, including bidirected graphs, have sparked ongoing research and significant advancements in the field. Soft Sets and their extension to Soft Graphs provide a flexible framework for managing uncertainty, while Rough Sets and Rough Graphs address uncertainty by using lower and upper approximations to handle imprecise data. Hypergraphs generalize traditional graphs by allowing edges, or hyperedges, to connect more than two vertices. Superhypergraphs further extend this by allowing both vertices and edges to represent subsets, facilitating the modeling of hierarchical and group-based relationships. The third chapter, “Survey of Intersection Graphs, Fuzzy Graphs, and Neutrosophic Graphs”, explores the intersection graph models within the realms of Fuzzy Graphs, Intuitionistic Fuzzy Graphs, Neutrosophic Graphs, Turiyam Neutrosophic Graphs, and Plithogenic Graphs. The chapter highlights their mathematical properties and interrelationships, reflecting the growing number of graph classes being developed in these areas. Intersection graphs, such as Unit Square Graphs, Circle Graphs, and Ray Intersection Graphs, are crucial for understanding complex graph structures in uncertain environments. The fourth chapter, “Fundamental Computational Problems and Algorithms for SuperHyperGraphs”, addresses optimization problems within the SuperHypergraph framework, such as the SuperHypergraph Partition Problem, Reachability, and Minimum Spanning SuperHypertree. The chapter also adapts classical problems like the Traveling Salesman Problem and the Chinese Postman Problem to the SuperHypergraph context, exploring how hypergraphs, which allow hyperedges to connect more than two vertices, can be used to solve complex hierarchical and relational problems. The fifth chapter, “A Short Note on the Basic Graph Construction Algorithm for Plithogenic Graphs”, delves into algorithms designed for Plithogenic Graphs and Intuitionistic Plithogenic Graphs, analyzing their complexity and validity. Plithogenic Graphs model multi-valued attributes by incorporating membership and contradiction functions, offering a nuanced representation of complex relationships. The sixth chapter, “Short Note of Bunch Graph in Fuzzy, Neutrosophic, and Plithogenic Graphs”, generalizes traditional graph theory by representing nodes as groups (bunches) rather than individual entities. This approach enables the modeling of both competition and collaboration within a network. The chapter explores various uncertain models of bunch graphs, including Fuzzy Graphs, Neutrosophic Graphs, Turiyam Neutrosophic Graphs, and Plithogenic Graphs. In the seventh chapter, “A Reconsideration of Advanced Concepts in Neutrosophic Graphs: Smart, Zero Divisor, Layered, Weak, Semi, and Chemical Graphs”, the authors extend several fuzzy graph classes to Neutrosophic graphs and analyze their properties. Neutrosophic Graphs, a generalization of fuzzy graphs, incorporate degrees of truth, indeterminacy, and falsity to model uncertainty more effectively. The eighth chapter, “Short Note of Even-Hole-Graph for Uncertain Graph”, focuses on Even-Hole-Free and Meyniel Graphs analyzed within the frameworks of Fuzzy, Neutrosophic, Turiyam Neutrosophic, and Plithogenic Graphs. The study investigates the structure of these graphs, with an emphasis on their implications for uncertainty modeling. The ninth chapter, “Survey of Planar and Outerplanar Graphs in Fuzzy and Neutrosophic Graphs”, explores planar and outerplanar graphs, as well as apex graphs, within the contexts of fuzzy, neutrosophic, Turiyam Neutrosophic, and plithogenic graphs. The chapter examines how these types of graphs are used to model uncertain parameters and relationships in mathematical and real-world systems. The tenth chapter, “General Plithogenic Soft Rough Graphs and Some Related Graph Classes”, introduces and explores new concepts such as Turiyam Neutrosophic Soft Graphs and General Plithogenic Soft Graphs. The chapter also examines models of uncertain graphs, including Fuzzy, Intuitionistic Fuzzy, Neutrosophic, and Plithogenic Graphs, all designed to handle uncertainty in diverse contexts. The eleventh chapter, “Survey of Trees, Forests, and Paths in Fuzzy and Neutrosophic Graphs”, provides a comprehensive study of Trees, Forests, and Paths within the framework of Fuzzy and Neutrosophic Graphs. This chapter focuses on classifying and analyzing graph structures like trees and paths in uncertain environments, contributing to the ongoing development of graph theory in the context of uncertainty. (shrink)

The third volume of “Advancing Uncertain Combinatorics through Graphization, Hyperization, and Uncertainization: Fuzzy, Neutrosophic, Soft, Rough, and Beyond” presents an in-depth exploration of the cutting-edge developments in uncertain combinatorics and set theory. This comprehensive collection highlights innovative methodologies such as graphization, hyperization, and uncertainization, which enhance combinatorics by incorporating foundational concepts from fuzzy, neutrosophic, soft, and rough set theories. These advancements open new mathematical horizons, offering novel approaches to managing uncertainty within complex systems. Combinatorics, a discipline focused on counting, arrangement, (...) and structure, often faces challenges when uncertainty is present. Set theory, which underpins combinatorial problems, has evolved to tackle these challenges. The introduction of fuzzy and neutrosophic sets has expanded the toolkit for modeling uncertainty by incorporating elements of truth, indeterminacy, and falsehood into decision-making processes. These innovations seamlessly intersect with graph theory, providing new ways to represent uncertain structures through "graphized" forms such as hypergraphs and superhypergraphs. This volume also introduces advanced concepts like Neutrosophic Oversets, Undersets, and Offsets, which push the boundaries of classical graph theory and offer deeper insights into the mathematical and practical challenges posed by real-world systems. By blending combinatorics, set theory, and graph theory, the authors have created a robust framework for addressing uncertainty in both mathematical systems and their real-world applications. This foundation sets the stage for future breakthroughs in combinatorics, set theory, and related fields. Each chapter in this volume contributes both theoretical foundations and practical applications, demonstrating the power of integrating graph theory, set theory, and uncertainty models. The new ideas, algorithms, and mathematical tools presented here will drive the future of combinatorial research and its applications in uncertain environments. In the first chapter, “Introduction to Upside-Down Logic: Its Deep Relation to Neutrosophic Logic and Applications”, the authors present Upside-Down Logic, a novel logical framework that systematically transforms truths into falsehoods and vice versa, based on contextual shifts. Introduced by F. Smarandache, this paper provides a mathematical definition of Upside-Down Logic, including applications related to the Japanese language. The chapter also introduces Contextual Upside-Down Logic, an extension that adjusts logical connectives alongside flipped truth values, as well as Indeterm-Upside-Down Logic and Certain Upside-Down Logic to address indeterminacy. A simple algorithm is also proposed to demonstrate the computational aspects of this logic. In the second chapter, “Local-Neutrosophic Logic and Local-Neutrosophic Sets: Incorporating Locality with Applications”, the authors introduce Local-Neutrosophic Logic and Local-Neutrosophic Sets, which integrate the concept of locality into Neutrosophic Logic. By defining locality as the influence of immediate surroundings on an object or system, this chapter explores how it affects indeterminacy in real-world problems. The paper also examines potential applications and provides mathematical definitions for these new concepts. The third chapter, “A Review of Fuzzy and Neutrosophic Offsets: Connections to Some Set Concepts and Normalization Function”, extends the concept of offsets in uncertain set-theoretic frameworks, such as Fuzzy Sets, Neutrosophic Sets, and Plithogenic Sets. This chapter introduces several advanced types of offsets, including Nonstationary Fuzzy Offset, Multi-valued Plithogenic Offset, and Subset-valued Neutrosophic Offset, offering deeper insights into handling uncertainty in mathematical models. In the fourth chapter, “Review of Plithogenic Directed, Mixed, Bidirected, and Pangene OffGraph”, the authors build upon Plithogenic Graphs to propose extensions such as Plithogenic Directed OffGraph, Plithogenic BiDirected OffGraph, and Plithogenic Mixed OffGraph. These new concepts, including the Plithogenic Pangene OffGraph, are explored in detail, with a focus on their mathematical properties and potential applications in uncertain graph theory. The fifth chapter, “Short Note on Neutrosophic Closure Matroids”, explores the extension of matroid concepts into Neutrosophic and Turiyam Neutrosophic set theories, introducing Neutrosophic closure matroids. This concept integrates uncertainty, indeterminacy, and liberal states into matroid theory, enhancing its applicability in optimization and combinatorial problems. In the sixth chapter, “Some Graph Parameters for Superhypertree-width and Neutrosophic Tree-width”, the authors discuss graph parameters such as Superhypertree-width and Neutrosophic tree-width. These parameters play a crucial role in the study of graph characteristics, particularly in algorithms and real-world applications. The chapter explores the generalization of hypergraphs to SuperHyperGraphs and examines how these concepts extend tree-width parameters within the context of Neutrosophic logic. (shrink)

Coping with uncertainty is a necessary part of ordinary life and is crucial to an understanding of how the mind works. For example, it is a vital element in developing artificial intelligence that will not be undermined by its own rigidities. There have been many approaches to the problem of uncertain inference, ranging from probability to inductive logic to nonmonotonic logic. Thisbook seeks to provide a clear exposition of these approaches within a unified framework. The principal market for the book (...) will be students and professionals in philosophy, computer science, and AI. Among the special features of the book are a chapter on evidential probability, which has not received a basic exposition before; chapters on nonmonotonic reasoning and theory replacement, matters rarely addressed in standard philosophical texts; and chapters on Mill's methods and statistical inference that cover material sorely lacking in the usual treatments of AI and computer science. (shrink)

This paper considers the demand for insurance in a model with uncertain indemnity. Uncertain indemnity tends to increase the demand for insurance for precautionary reasons, but it also tends to decrease the demand due to the risk created by indemnity uncertainty. When the coefficient of relative prudence is not too large, uncertain indemnity reduces the demand for insurance and partial coverage is optimal even at actuarially fair premiums. In addition, insurance may be an inferior good or a normal good, depending (...) on the behavior of absolute risk aversion and the magnitude of the coefficient of relative risk aversion. (shrink)

The Covid-19 pandemic has shaken the world. It has presented us with a series of new challenges, but the policy response may be difficult due to the severe uncertainty of our circumstances. While pressure to take timely action may push towards less inclusive decision procedures, in this paper I argue that precisely our current uncertainty provides reasons to include stakeholders in collective decision-making. Decision-making during the pandemic faces uncertainty that goes beyond the standard, probabilistic one of Bayesian decision theory. Agents (...) may be uncertain not just about factual properties of the world, but also about how to model their decision problems and about the values of the possible consequences of their options. As different stakeholders may have irreconcilable disagreement about how to resolve these uncertainties, decision-making procedures should take everybody’s perspectives into account. Moreover, those communities that are hit harder by the pandemic are also those that are typically excluded from knowledge production. Thus, in the face of Covid-19 uncertainty, both democratic and epistemic considerations highlight the importance of stakeholders’ inclusion in policy decision-making. (shrink)

Is there 'truth' even if it is not certain and we cannot be certain about it? Sontag answers a resounding 'yes' in Uncertain Truth asserting that, in a skeptical time, truth is still possible but is not ours to possess with certainty. 'Truth' must therefore be reconceived in its philosophical perspective.

Reasoning under uncertainty, that is, making judgements with only partial knowledge, is a major theme in artificial intelligence. Professor Paris provides here an introduction to the mathematical foundations of the subject. It is suited for readers with some knowledge of undergraduate mathematics but is otherwise self-contained, collecting together the key results on the subject, and formalising within a unified framework the main contemporary approaches and assumptions. The author has concentrated on giving clear mathematical formulations, analyses, justifications and consequences of the (...) main theories about uncertain reasoning, so the book can serve as a textbook for beginners or as a starting point for further basic research into the subject. It will be welcomed by graduate students and research workers in logic, philosophy, and computer science as a textbook for beginners, a starting point for further basic research into the subject, and not least, an account of how mathematics and artificial intelligence can complement and enrich each other. (shrink)

How ought you to evaluate your options if you're uncertain about what's fundamentally valuable? A prominent response is Expected Value Maximisation (EVM)—the view that under axiological uncertainty, an option is better than another if and only if it has the greater expected value across axiologies. But the expected value of an option depends on quantitative probability and value facts, and in particular on value comparisons across axiologies. We need to explain what it is for such facts to hold. Also, EVM (...) is by no means self-evident. We need an argument to defend that it’s true. This book introduces an axiomatic approach to answer these worries. It provides an explication of what EVM means by use of representation theorems: intertheoretic comparisons can be understood in terms of facts about which options are better than which, and mutatis mutandis for intratheoretic comparisons and axiological probabilities. And it provides a systematic argument to the effect that EVM is true: the theory can be vindicated through simple axioms. The result is a formally cogent and philosophically compelling extension of standard decision theory, and original take on the problem of axiological or normative uncertainty. (shrink)

ArgumentScientific uncertainty is fundamental to the management of contemporary global risks. In 2009, the World Health Organization declared the start of the H1N1 Influenza Pandemic. This declaration signified the risk posed by the spread of the H1N1 virus, and in turn precipitated a range of actions by global public health actors. This article analyzes the WHO's public representation of risk and examines the centrality of scientific uncertainty in the case of H1N1. It argues that the WHO's risk narrative reflected the (...) context of scientific uncertainty in which it was working. The WHO argued that it was attempting to remain faithful to the scientific evidence, and the uncertain nature of the threat. However, as a result, the WHO's public risk narrative was neither consistent nor socially robust, leading to the eventual contestation of the WHO's position by other global public health actors, most notably the Council of Europe. This illustrates both the significance of scientific uncertainty in the investigation of risk, and the difficulty for risk managing institutions in effectively acting in the face of this uncertainty. (shrink)

Bayesian accounts are currently popular in the field of inductive reasoning. This commentary briefly reviews the limitations of one such account, the Rational Model (Anderson 1991b), in explaining how inferences are made about objects whose category membership is uncertain. These shortcomings are symptomatic of what Jones & Love (J&L) refer to as Bayesian approaches.

I distinguish between religions of divinity and civilizational religions within the diversity of what I call ‘mythic discourse’ and explain the difference between agentive and enabling norms applied to the life of persons treated along broadly Darwinian lines as artifactual transforms of the human primate. I consider how to view ‘truth’ in naturalistic and religious contexts relative to the distinctions mentioned.

This volume collects together his writings during the period from 1919 to 1922 and describes his experiences in Russia and China which confirmed his emergence as a popular commentator on contemporary political issues.

IntroductionAutism spectrum disorder is a highly heterogeneous diagnosis. When a child is referred to autism services or receives a diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder it is not known what their potential adult outcomes could be. We consider the challenge of making predictions of an individual child’s long-term multi-facetted adult outcome, focussing on which aspects are predictable and which are not.MethodsWe used data from 123 adults participating in the Autism Early Diagnosis Cohort. Participants were recruited from age 2 and followed up (...) repeatedly through childhood and adolescence to adulthood. We predicted 14 adult outcome measures including cognitive, behavioral and well-being measures. Continuous outcomes were modeled using lasso regression and ordinal outcomes were modeled using proportional odds regression. Optimism corrected predictive performance was calculated using cross-validation or bootstrap. We also illustrated the prediction of an overall composite formed by weighting outcome measures by priorities elicited from parents.ResultsWe found good predictive performance from age 9 for verbal and non-verbal IQ, and daily living skills. Predictions for symptom severity, hyperactivity and irritability improved with inclusion of behavioral data collected in adolescence but remained modest. For other outcomes covering well-being, depression, and positive and negative affect we found no ability to predict adult outcomes at any age. Predictions of composites based on parental priorities differed in magnitude and precision depending on which parts of the adult outcome were given more weight.ConclusionVerbal and non-verbal IQ, and daily living skills can be predicted well from assessments made in childhood. For other adult outcomes, it is challenging to make meaningful predictions from assessments made in childhood and adolescence using the measures employed in this study. Future work should replicate and validate the present findings in different samples, investigate whether the availability of different measures in childhood and adolescence can improve predictions, and consider systematic differences in priorities. (shrink)

Our knowledge forms a highly interconnected and dynamically changing body of propositions. One obviously important way that knowledge changes is via rational inference, based either upon new insight into the content of what we already know or upon new knowledge provided by the senses. The most obvious codification of the acceptability of inference driven knowledge growth is the so-called known entailment closure principle, the principle that if S knows that p and knows that p implies q then S knows that (...) q, or, more formally. (shrink)

ABSTRACTThe new paradigm in the psychology of reasoning redirects the investigation of deduction conceptually and methodologically because the premises and the conclusion of the inferences are assumed to be uncertain. A probabilistic counterpart of the concept of logical validity and a method to assess whether individuals comply with it must be defined. Conceptually, we used de Finetti's coherence as a normative framework to assess individuals' performance. Methodologically, we presented inference schemas whose premises had various levels of probability that contained non-numerical (...) expressions and, as a control, sure levels. Depending on the inference schemas, from 60% to 80% of the participants produced coherent conclusions when the premises were uncertain. The data also show that except for schemas involving conjunction, performance was consistently lower with certain than uncertain premises, the rate of conjunction fallacy was consistently low (not exceeding 20%,.. (shrink)

In this article, Herrie and Sørensen examine the mediation of typing indicators (“…”) in online messaging. Their point of departure is a scene from the contemporary novel _Exciting Times_ by Naoise Dolan (2020), in which the ‘dots’ play a prominent role. Their analysis shows how typing indicators, as interface design, mediate the complex communication situation in which they take part: from being mere signals, they have slipped into our emotional lives. From a semiotic perspective (Charles S. Peirce), the authors define (...) typing indicators as _uncertain indices_ which through unknowability and suspense establish an attentional presence. In continuation hereof, the authors argue that the acts of writing and waiting in contemporary attentional ecologies (Yves Citton) through the mediation of typing indicators as indicators of attentional presence, could be considered a mode of caring (Bernard Stiegler). (shrink)

Human cognition requires coping with a complex and uncertain world. This suggests that dealing with uncertainty may be the central challenge for human reasoning. In Bayesian Rationality we argue that probability theory, the calculus of uncertainty, is the right framework in which to understand everyday reasoning. We also argue that probability theory explains behavior, even on experimental tasks that have been designed to probe people's logical reasoning abilities. Most commentators agree on the centrality of uncertainty; some suggest that there is (...) a residual role for logic in understanding reasoning; and others put forward alternative formalisms for uncertain reasoning, or raise specific technical, methodological, or empirical challenges. In responding to these points, we aim to clarify the scope and limits of probability and logic in cognitive science; explore the meaning of the explanation of cognition; and re-evaluate the empirical case for Bayesian rationality. (shrink)

The current malaise in the Catholic Church in America must be examined and evaluated. A new birth may be in process or a new death.

This book is the sixth volume in the series of Collected Papers on Advancing Uncertain Combinatorics through Graphization, Hyperization, and Uncertainization: Fuzzy, Neutrosophic, Soft, Rough, and Beyond. Building upon the foundational contributions of previous volumes, this edition focuses on the exploration and development of Various New Uncertain Concepts, further enriching the study of uncertainty and complexity through innovative theoretical advancements and practical applications. The volume is meticulously organized into 15 chapters, each presenting unique perspectives and contributions to the field. From (...) theoretical explorations to real-world applications, these chapters provide a cohesive and comprehensive overview of the state of the art in uncertain combinatorics, emphasizing the versatility and power of the newly introduced concepts and methodologies. The first chapter (SuperHypertree-depth – Structural Analysis in SuperHyperGraphs) explores the concept of SuperHypertree-depth, an extension of the classical graph parameter Tree-depth and its hypergraph counterpart Hypertree-depth. By introducing hierarchical nesting within SuperHyperGraphs, where both vertices and edges can represent recursive subsets, this study investigates the mathematical properties and structural implications of these extended parameters. The findings highlight the relationships between SuperHypertree-depth and its traditional graph-theoretic equivalents, providing a deeper understanding of their applicability to hierarchical and complex systems. The second chapter (Obstructions for Hypertree-width and SuperHypertree-width) examines the role of ultrafilters as obstructions in determining Hypertree-width and extends the concept to SuperHypertree-width. Building on hypergraph theory, which abstracts traditional graph frameworks into more complex domains, the study investigates how recursive structures within SuperHyperGraphs redefine the computational and structural properties of these parameters. Ultrafilters, with their broad mathematical significance, serve as critical tools for understanding the limitations and potentials of these advanced graph metrics. The third chapter (SuperHypertree-Length and SuperHypertree-Breadth in SuperHyperGraphs) investigates the extension of the graph-theoretic parameters Tree-length and Tree-breadth to the realms of hypergraphs and SuperHyperGraphs. By leveraging the hierarchical nesting of SuperHyperGraphs, the study explores how these parameters adapt to increasingly complex and multi-level structures. Comparative analyses between these extended parameters and their classical counterparts reveal new insights into their relevance and utility in advanced graph and hypergraph theory. Plithogenic Sets, which generalize Fuzzy and Neutrosophic Sets, are extended in the fourth chapter (Extended HyperPlithogenic Sets and Generalized Plithogenic Graphs) to Extended Plithogenic Sets, HyperPlithogenic Sets, and SuperHyperPlithogenic Sets. This study further investigates their application to graph theory through the concepts of Extended Plithogenic Graphs and Generalized Extended Plithogenic Graphs. The chapter provides a concise exploration of these frameworks, offering insights into their potential for addressing uncertainty and complexity in graph structures. Soft Sets provide an effective framework for decision-making by mapping parameters to subsets of a universal set, addressing uncertainty and vagueness. The fifth chapter (Double-Framed Superhypersoft Set and Double-Framed Treesoft Set) introduces the Double-Framed SuperHypersoft Set and the Double-Framed Treesoft Set as extensions of traditional and advanced soft set frameworks, such as Hypersoft and SuperHypersoft Sets. The chapter explores their relationships with existing concepts, offering new tools to handle complex decision-making scenarios with enhanced structural flexibility. The sixth paper (HyperPlithogenic Cubic Set and SuperHyperPlithogenic Cubic Set) introduces the concepts of the HyperPlithogenic Cubic Set and SuperHyperPlithogenic Cubic Set, which extend the Plithogenic Cubic Set by integrating both interval-valued and single-valued fuzzy memberships. These sets leverage multi-attribute aggregation techniques inherent to plithogenic structures, allowing for nuanced representations of uncertainty. Additionally, related constructs such as the HyperPlithogenic Fuzzy Cubic Set, HyperPlithogenic Intuitionistic Fuzzy Cubic Set, and HyperPlithogenic Neutrosophic Cubic Set are explored, further enriching the theoretical and practical applications of this framework. The seventh chapter (L-Neutrosophic Sets and Nonstationary Neutrosophic Sets) extends the foundational concepts of fuzzy sets by integrating Neutrosophic and Plithogenic frameworks. By introducing L-Neutrosophic Sets and Nonstationary Neutrosophic Sets, the study enhances the representation of uncertainty through independent membership components: truth, indeterminacy, and falsity. These advanced constructs also incorporate multi-dimensional and contradictory attributes, providing a robust means of modeling complex decision-making and uncertain data. Plithogenic and Rough Sets, known for generalizing uncertainty modeling and classification, are extended in the eight chapter (Forest HyperPlithogenic and Forest HyperRough Sets) to Forest HyperPlithogenic Sets, Forest SuperHyperPlithogenic Sets, Forest HyperRough Sets, and Forest SuperHyperRough Sets. These frameworks incorporate hierarchical and recursive structures to advance existing set-theoretic paradigms. The chapter explores their applications in multi-level data analysis and uncertainty classification, demonstrating their adaptability to complex systems. Building on Fuzzy, Neutrosophic, and Plithogenic Sets, the tenth chapter (Symbolic HyperPlithogenic Sets) introduces Symbolic HyperPlithogenic Sets and Symbolic n-SuperHyperPlithogenic Sets. These sets incorporate symbolic components and algebraic coefficients, enabling flexible operations within a defined prevalence order. By extending symbolic representation into hyperplithogenic and superhyperplithogenic domains, the chapter opens new pathways for addressing uncertainty and hierarchical complexity in mathematical modeling. Soft Sets, designed to manage uncertainty and imprecision, have evolved through various extensions like Hypersoft Sets and SuperHypersoft Sets. The eleventh chapter (N-SuperHypersoft and Bijective SuperHypersoft Sets) introduces N-SuperHypersoft Sets, N-Treesoft Sets, Bijective SuperHypersoft Sets, and Bijective Treesoft Sets. These new constructs enhance decision-making frameworks by incorporating advanced hierarchical and bijective relationships, building on existing theories and expanding their applications. Plithogenic Sets, known for integrating multi-valued attributes and contradictions, and Rough Sets, which partition data into definable approximations, are combined in the twelfth chapter (Plithogenic Rough Sets) to form Plithogenic Rough Sets. This fusion provides a powerful framework for addressing uncertainty in dynamic and complex decision-making scenarios, offering a novel approach to uncertainty modeling. Expanding on Neutrosophic Sets, which represent truth, indeterminacy, and falsehood, this chapter introduces Plithogenic Duplets and Plithogenic Triplets. These constructs leverage the Plithogenic framework to incorporate attributes, values, and contradiction measures. The thirteenth chapter (Plithogenic Duplets and Triplets) examines their relationships with Neutrosophic Duplets and Triplets, offering new tools for multi-dimensional data representation and decision-making. Building on foundational concepts like Rough Sets and Vague Sets, the fourteenth chapter (SuperRough and SuperVague Sets) introduces SuperRough Sets and SuperVague Sets. These generalized frameworks extend uncertainty modeling by incorporating hierarchical structures. The study also demonstrates that SuperRough Sets can evolve into SuperHyperRough Sets, providing further generalizations for advanced data classification and analysis. The fifteenth chapter (Neutrosophic TreeSoft Expert and ForestSoft Sets) revisits the Neutrosophic TreeSoft Set, which combines the hierarchical structure of TreeSoft Sets with the Neutrosophic framework for uncertainty representation. Additionally, it introduces the Neutrosophic TreeSoft Expert Set, incorporating expert knowledge into the model. The chapter also explores the ForestSoft Set and its extension, the Neutrosophic ForestSoft Set, to provide multi-level, tree-structured approaches for complex data representation and analysis. (shrink)

This book is the fifth volume in the series of Collected Papers on Advancing Uncertain Combinatorics through Graphization, Hyperization, and Uncertainization: Fuzzy, Neutrosophic, Soft, Rough, and Beyond. This volume specifically delves into the concept of Various SuperHyperConcepts, building on the foundational advancements introduced in previous volumes. The series aims to explore the ongoing evolution of uncertain combinatorics through innovative methodologies such as graphization, hyperization, and uncertainization. These approaches integrate and extend core concepts from fuzzy, neutrosophic, soft, and rough set theories, (...) providing robust frameworks to model and analyze the inherent complexity of real-world uncertainties. At the heart of this series lies combinatorics and set theory—cornerstones of mathematics that address the study of counting, arrangements, and the relationships between collections under defined rules. Traditionally, combinatorics has excelled in solving problems involving uncertainty, while advancements in set theory have expanded its scope to include powerful constructs like fuzzy and neutrosophic sets. These advanced sets bring new dimensions to uncertainty modeling by capturing not just binary truth but also indeterminacy and falsity. In this fifth volume, the exploration of Various SuperHyperConcepts provides an innovative lens to address uncertainty, complexity, and hierarchical relationships. It synthesizes key methodologies introduced in earlier volumes, such as hyperization and neutrosophic extensions, while advancing new theories and applications. From pioneering hyperstructures to applications in advanced decision-making, language modeling, and neural networks, this book represents a significant leap forward in uncertain combinatorics and its practical implications across disciplines. -/- The book is structured into 17 chapters, each contributing unique perspectives and advancements in the realm of Various SuperHyperConcepts and their related frameworks: Chapter 1 introduces the concept of Body-Mind-Soul-Spirit Fluidity within psychology and phenomenology, while examining established social science frameworks like PDCA and DMAIC. It extends these frameworks using Neutrosophic Sets, a flexible extension of Fuzzy Sets, to improve their adaptability for mathematical and programming applications. The chapter emphasizes the potential of Neutrosophic theory to address multi-dimensional challenges in social sciences. Chapter 2 delves into the theoretical foundation of Hyperfunctions and their generalizations, such as Hyperrandomness and Hyperdecision-Making. It explores higher-order frameworks like Weak Hyperstructures, Hypergraphs, and Cognitive Hypermaps, aiming to establish their versatility in addressing multi-layered problems and setting a foundation for further studies. Chapter 3 extends traditional decision-making methodologies into HyperDecision-Making and n-SuperHyperDecision-Making. By building on approaches like MCDM and TOPSIS, this chapter develops frameworks capable of addressing complex decision-making scenarios, emphasizing their applicability in dynamic, multi-objective contexts. Chapter 4 explores integrating uncertainty frameworks, including Fuzzy, Neutrosophic, and Plithogenic Sets, into Large Language Models (LLMs). It proposes innovative models like Large Uncertain Language Models and Natural Uncertain Language Processing, integrating hierarchical and generalized structures to advance the handling of uncertainty in linguistic representation and processing. Chapter 5 introduces the Natural n-Superhyper Plithogenic Language by synthesizing natural language, plithogenic frameworks, and superhyperstructures. This innovative construct seeks to address challenges in advanced linguistic and structural modeling, blending attributes of uncertainty, complexity, and hierarchical abstraction. Chapter 6 defines mathematical extensions such as NeutroHyperstructures and AntiHyperstructures using the Neutrosophic Triplet framework. It formalizes structures like neutro-superhyperstructures, advancing classical frameworks into higher-dimensional realms. Chapter 7 explores the extension of Binary Code, Gray Code, and Floorplans through hyperstructures and superhyperstructures. It highlights their iterative and hierarchical applications, demonstrating their adaptability for complex data encoding and geometric arrangement challenges. Chapter 8 investigates the Neutrosophic TwoFold SuperhyperAlgebra, combining classical algebraic operations with neutrosophic components. This chapter expands upon existing algebraic structures like Hyperalgebra and AntiAlgebra, exploring hybrid frameworks for advanced mathematical modeling. Chapter 9 introduces Hyper Z-Numbers and SuperHyper Z-Numbers by extending the traditional Z-Number framework with hyperstructures. These extensions aim to represent uncertain information in more complex and multidimensional contexts. Chapter 10 revisits category theory through the lens of hypercategories and superhypercategories. By incorporating hierarchical and iterative abstractions, this chapter extends the foundational principles of category theory to more complex and layered structures. Chapter 11 formalizes the concept of n-SuperHyperBranch-width and its theoretical properties. By extending hypergraphs into superhypergraphs, the chapter explores recursive structures and their potential for representing intricate hierarchical relationships. Chapter 12 examines superhyperstructures of partitions, integrals, and spaces, proposing a framework for advancing mathematical abstraction. It highlights the potential applications of these generalizations in addressing hierarchical and multi-layered problems. Chapter 13 revisits Rough, HyperRough, and SuperHyperRough Sets, introducing new concepts like Tree-HyperRough Sets. The chapter connects these frameworks to advanced approaches for modeling uncertainty and complex relationships. Chapter 14 explores Plithogenic SuperHyperStructures and their applications in decision-making, control, and neuro systems. By integrating these advanced frameworks, the chapter proposes innovative directions for extending existing systems to handle multi-attribute and contradictory properties. Chapter 15 focuses on superhypergraphs, expanding hypergraph concepts to model complex structural types like arboreal and molecular superhypergraphs. It introduces Generalized n-th Powersets as a unifying framework for broader mathematical applications, while also touching on hyperlanguage processing. Chapter 16 defines NeutroHypergeometry and AntiHypergeometry as extensions of classical geometric structures. Using the Geometric Neutrosophic Triplet, the chapter demonstrates the flexibility of these frameworks in representing multi-dimensional and uncertain relationships. Chapter 17 establishes the theoretical groundwork for SuperHyperGraph Neural Networks and Plithogenic Graph Neural Networks. By integrating advanced graph structures, this chapter opens pathways for applying neural networks to more intricate and uncertain data representations. (shrink)

The myth of transparency and truthfulness is the foundation for contemporary theories of information design. Avoiding distortion and ambiguity is the moral imperative of an upstanding data visualizer. Sometimes, though, data that is collected is not accurate enough and the sources use indirect indicators to approach a phenomenon: what to do then, if the need to graphically represent a phenomenon is urgent and necessary? Should the designer wait to have the exact data, or should he indicate a trend, expressing the (...) hypothetical status of his statement? Can data visualization be designed to express doubt rather than to inform about facts? This essay will deal with the forms of expression of uncertainty in infographics. It will consider the designer as both an observer and a translator, whose position of neutrality is only one of the possible realms of discourse. In general, it will focus on the forms of visual expression of a self-criticizing mood in quantitative research today and it will explore the ways in which data that is not meaningful in statistical terms can become meaningful in semiotic terms. (shrink)

This essay explores a certain kind of uncertainty, a fuzziness, that occurs in inter-religious study where the religions involved both highly prize clarity, truth, and specific commitments. Reading that crosses religious borders creates a body of new insights and even spiritual experiences that neither fit easily into the settled doctrines of traditions nor contest those doctrines by offering new, liberal, or relativizing alternatives. Rather, productive spaces open up wherein spiritual insight and uncertainty go hand in hand, created and accentuated by (...) study, a stubborn fidelity to detail, and the ability to live with incertainty. By way of example, this essay offers an instance from a current study that the author, a Roman Catholic, is undertaking of intensely devotional medieval Hindu poetry, in part read along with passages from the biblical Song of Songs. The uncertainty carefully cultivated in this kind of study is, he argues, beneficial for those who remain committed to doctrinally robust traditions but also engage in the study of other, similarly robust traditions. (shrink)

In the late 1970s, the U.S. Congress was debating a number of different proposals to provide monetary compensation to residents of Utah and Nevada who had been exposed to radioactive fallout from government nuclear weapons testing in the 1950s. Yet scientists and government officials expressed concern that such a program would end up compensating many people for cancers that were not caused by the fallout. Thus, after much debate, Congress directed the National Institutes of Health to produce a set of (...) statistical tables—the radioepidemiologic tables—to target compensation awards to “deserving” individuals. Advocates of the tables, notably Senator Orrin Hatch, argued that reliance on scientific data would provide compensation decisions with predictability and evenhandedness. Yet in the end, the effort to employ the tables failed. The substantial scientific uncertainties in the tables and in their application to individual claims failed to deliver the authority they promised. Additionally, the goal of fairness and objectivity could not be convincingly met because of persistent controversy and mistrust surrounding the government’s role in the study of health effects of low‐level radiation. (shrink)

This book offers up-to-date insights into the theory and practice of Corporate Social Responsibility and sustainability management. Gathering contributions by a team of international scholars, it shares perspectives from a variety of academic disciplines, including management and tourism as well as accounting, higher education research and supply chain management. Guided by the credo of achieving 'Responsible Business for Uncertain Times and a Sustainable Future,' the authors present their latest reflections on, and possible solutions for, sustainable and responsible business practices. All (...) of the contributions presented here are critical, evidence-based and solution-oriented, making the book both practical and insightful reading for academics and practitioners alike. (shrink)

Truth claims pervade the world: assertions that a speaker wishes to persuade an audience are true or at least plausible. But how to judge? Much proposed knowledge has uncertain legitimacy, evaluated through assumptions of how the world operates or by the reputation of its sponsor. In other words, plausibility and credibility shape our judgments. As students of conspiracy theories recognize, many “facts” are available, too many to be easily judged as to their accuracy. Facts are promiscuous. As judges of likelihood, (...) we conclude that some are false, others true, and still others taken out of context. Further, knowledge is never complete and so we must consider error and ignorance (a field of epistemology labeled agnotology) as well as accuracy and awareness. In this article I examine four critical allegations made about United States President Barack Obama: that he was born in Kenya, that he is Muslim, that he engaged in oral sex with another man, and that he is a socialist. While each of these claims may be false, they are false in different ways in light of the different criteria and strategies by which we weigh uncertainty. (shrink)

People can be uncertain in their moral judgments. Philosophers have argued that such uncertainty can either refer to the underlying empirical facts (empirical uncertainty) or to the normative evaluation of these facts itself (normative uncertainty). Psychological investigations of this distinction, however, are rare. In this paper, we combined factor-analytical and experimental approaches to show that empirical and normative uncertainty describe two related but different psychological states. In Study 1, we asked N = 265 participants to describe a case of moral (...) uncertainty and to rate different aspects of their uncertainty about this case. Across this wide range of moral scenarios, our items loaded onto three reliable factors: lack of information, unclear consequences, and normative uncertainty. In Study 2, we confirmed this factor structure using predefined stimulus material. N = 402 participants each rated eight scenarios that systematically varied in their degree of uncertainty regarding the consequences of the described actions and in the value conflict that was inherent to them. The empirical uncertainty factors were mainly affected by the introduction of uncertainty regarding consequences, and the normative uncertainty factor was mainly affected by the introduction of value conflict. Our studies provide evidence that the distinction between empirical and normative uncertainty accurately describes a psychological reality. We discuss the relevance of our findings for research on moral judgments and decision-making, and folk metaethics. (shrink)

Review of M. Giaquinto, The Search for Certainty: A Philosophical Account of Foundations of Mathematics (Osford, 2002).

When forecasting events, multiple types of uncertainty are often inherently present in the modeling process. Various uncertainty typologies exist, and each type of uncertainty has different implications a scientist might want to convey. In this work, we focus on one type of distinction betweendirect quantitative uncertaintyandindirect qualitative uncertainty. Direct quantitative uncertainty describes uncertainty about facts, numbers, and hypotheses that can be communicated in absolute quantitative forms such as probability distributions or confidence intervals. Indirect qualitative uncertainty describes the quality of knowledge (...) concerning how effectively facts, numbers, or hypotheses represent reality, such as evidence confidence scales proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A large body of research demonstrates that both experts and novices have difficulty reasoning with quantitative uncertainty, and visualizations of uncertainty can help with such traditionally challenging concepts. However, the question of if, and how, people may reason with multiple types of uncertainty associated with a forecast remains largely unexplored. In this series of studies, we seek to understand if individuals can integrate indirect uncertainty about how “good” a model is (operationalized as a qualitative expression of forecaster confidence) with quantified uncertainty in a prediction (operationalized as a quantile dotplot visualization of a predicted distribution). Our first study results suggest that participants utilize both direct quantitative uncertainty and indirect qualitative uncertainty when conveyed as quantile dotplots and forecaster confidence. In manipulations where forecasters were less sure about their prediction, participants made more conservative judgments. In our second study, we varied the amount of quantified uncertainty (in the form of the SD of the visualized distributions) to examine how participants’ decisions changed under different combinations of quantified uncertainty (variance) and qualitative uncertainty (low, medium, and high forecaster confidence). The second study results suggest that participants updated their judgments in the direction predicted by both qualitative confidence information (e.g., becoming more conservative when the forecaster confidence is low) and quantitative uncertainty (e.g., becoming more conservative when the variance is increased). Based on the findings from both experiments, we recommend that forecasters present qualitative expressions of model confidence whenever possible alongside quantified uncertainty. (shrink)

We study the dynamical behavior of multiple quasi-synchronization of a type of fractional-order coupled neural networks with delay and uncertain parameters. By utilizing the pinned pulse control strategy technique, we establish a new pulse controller, which realizes the multiple quasisynchronization of the system. Furthermore, we derive some new criteria of multiple quasisynchronization by using the comparison principle and mathematical analysis. Eventually, simulations are carried out with two examples to explicate the effectiveness of the conclusions.

In this paper, I contrast pre- and post-Socratic Greek thought, particularly with respect to Apollonian optimism and Dionysian pessimism. I show how Socrates’ judgment of a “right” way of living undermined Greek pessimism and was the first step towards modern scientific optimism, the belief that the world can be understood. I then argue that new developments in quantum physics make this optimism untenable, and I finally assert that Nietzschean pessimism is a coherent and beneficial metaphysical perspective.

Why is it hard to solve the climate crisis, and what can we do? This book answers these questions, which are of interest to the public, academics, and businesspeople. Using stories from the front lines of the energy transition, we show how to unlock the climate impasse.

Bioethics is a field of inquiry and as such is fundamentally an epistemic discipline. Knowing how we make moral judgments can bring into relief why certain arguments on various bioethical issues appear plausible to one side and obviously false to the other. Uncertain Bioethicsmakes a significant and distinctive contribution to the bioethics literature by culling the insights from contemporary moral psychology to highlight the epistemic pitfalls and distorting influences on our apprehension of value. Stephen Napier also incorporates research from epistemology (...) addressing pragmatic encroachment and the significance of peer disagreement to justify what he refers to as epistemic diffidence when one is considering harming or killing human beings. Napier extends these developments to the traditional bioethical notion of dignity and argues that beliefs subject to epistemic diffidence should not be acted upon. He proceeds to apply this framework to traditional and developing issues in bioethics including abortion, stem cell research, euthanasia, decision-making for patients in a minimally conscious state, and risky research on competent human subjects. to traditional and developing issues in bioethics including abortion, stem cell research, euthanasia, decision-making for patients in a minimally conscious state, and risky research on competent human subjects. (shrink)

This paper studies the interaction between savagean uncertainty and time preferences. We introduce a variation of the discounted subjective expected utility model, where time preferences are state dependent. Before uncertainty is resolved, the individual is unsure about the discount factor that will be used, even when evaluating certain payoffs. The model can account for the present bias and diminishing impatience, even if the future is discounted geometrically. The present bias disappears when the immediate payoff becomes uncertain. Although preferences are not (...) stationary, choices may be time consistent. (shrink)