In the Analects (13.18) we find a case that a son reported his sheep-stealing father to the authority, and Confucius and the Duke of She disagreed whether the son was upright or not. This case reflects a conflict of strong and deep intuitions, and it continues to ignite heated debates. In this paper I first try to clarify the nature of this conflict and Confucius’s position, as it has many different interpretations. Next, I examine and articulate a variety of arguments (...) in support of Confucius’s position and classify them into five different types. Of the five arguments, two of them are especially noteworthy: the argument from Goodness and the argument from Social Utility. Both arguments can find strong support in Confucian tradition, and many historical arguments are still relevant and insightful today. These arguments also demonstrate the value of Confucian ethics in contemporary society. (shrink)

In this dissertation I aim to clarify the concept of probability. There are three kinds of interpretation of probability: the objective interpretation, the logical interpretation, and the subjective interpretation. The objective interpretation understands probability as a natural property that exists independently of our minds. I will clarify and defend one version of objective probability---the propensity interpretation of probability. I reject the logical interpretation of probability that treats probability as a logical relation between evidence and hypothesis, and maintain that probability is (...) an empirical relation. The subjective interpretation of probability, which is quite influential in recent literature, understands probability as the subject's degree of confidence that is only concerned with the states of one's mind. There are two arguments to support the claim that partial beliefs satisfy the probability measure, the Dutch Book Argument and the Representation Theorem . I argue that the subjective probability derived from both arguments is in fact the subjective estimate of objective chance, rather than subjective uncertainty of the mind assumed by subjective interpretation. The clarification of the concept of probability, I think, is of crucial importance to the studies in the philosophy of science, epistemology, and statistics. (shrink)