The phenomenon of base-rate neglect has elicited much debate. One arena of debate concerns how people make judgments under conditions of uncertainty. Another more controversial arena concerns human rationality. In this target article, we attempt to unpack the perspectives in the literature on both kinds of issues and evaluate their ability to explain existing data and their conceptual coherence. From this evaluation we conclude that the best account of the data should be framed in terms of a dual-process model of (...) judgment, which attributes base-rate neglect to associative judgment strategies that fail to adequately represent the set structure of the problem. Base-rate neglect is reduced when problems are presented in a format that affords accurate representation in terms of nested sets of individuals. (shrink)

Consistent with Koehler's position, we propose a generalization of the base rate fallacy and earlier conservatism literatures. In studies using both traditional tasks and new tasks based on ecologically valid base rates, our subjects typically underweight individuating information at least as much as they underweight base rates. The implications of cue consistency for averaging heuristics are discussed.

Female waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) has generally been an important general predictor of ratings of physical attractiveness and related characteristics. Individual differences in ratings do exist, however, and may be related to differences in the reproductive tactics of the male raters such as pursuit of short-term or long-term relationships and adjustments based on perceptions of one’s own quality as a mate. Forty males, categorized according to sociosexual orientation and physical qualities (WHR, Body Mass Index, and self-rated desirability), rated female (...) models on both attractiveness and likelihood they would approach them. Sociosexually restricted males were less likely to approach females rated as most attractive (with 0.68–0.72 WHR), as compared with unrestricted males. Males with lower scores in terms of physical qualities gave ratings indicating more favorable evaluations of female models with lower WHR. The results indicate that attractiveness and willingness to approach are overlapping but distinguishable constructs, both of which are influenced by variations in characteristics of the raters. (shrink)

Why do people shift their strategies for solving problems? Past work has focused on the roles of contextual and individual factors in explaining whether people adopt new strategies when they are exposed to them. In this study, we examined a factor not considered in prior work: people's evaluations of the strategies themselves. We presented undergraduate participants from a moderately selective university (N = 252; 64.8% women, 65.6% White, 67.6% who had taken calculus) with two strategies for solving algebraic word problems (...) and asked them to rate these strategies and their own strategy on a variety of dimensions. Participants’ ratings loaded onto two factors, which we label quality and difficulty. Participants’ initial evaluations of the quality of the strategies were associated with whether they used the strategies at posttest, and this effect held even when controlling for individual and contextual factors. However, people's evaluations of the difficulty of the strategies were not consistently associated with their later adoption of those strategies. We also examined individual and contextual predictors of strategy ratings and strategy adoption. Participants’ need for cognition and their spatial visualization ability were associated with their strategy evaluations, and the framing of the story problems was associated with their strategy adoption. The findings highlight that strategy adoption depends on multiple interacting factors, and that to understand strategy change, it is critical to examine how people evaluate strategies. (shrink)

Vaccination is a highly effective public health strategy that provides protection to both individuals and communities from a range of infectious diseases. Governments monitor vaccination rates carefully, as widespread use of a vaccine within a population is required to extend protection to the general population through “herd immunity,” which is important for protecting infants who are not yet fully vaccinated and others who are unable to undergo vaccination for medical or other reasons. Australia is unique in employing financial incentives (...) to increase vaccination uptake, mainly in the form of various childcare payments and tax benefits linked to timely, age-appropriate vaccination. Despite relatively high compliance with the childhood vaccination schedule, however, the Australian government has determined that rates should be higher and has recently introduced policy that includes removing certain tax and childcare benefits for non-vaccinators and formally disallowing conscientious objection to vaccination. In addition, it has raised the possibility of banning unvaccinated children from childcare centres. This article examines the impact of coercive approaches to childhood vaccination and raises the question of the ethical justification of health policy initiatives based on coercion. We consider the current evidence regarding childhood vaccination in Australia, the small but real risks associated with vaccination, the ethical requirement for consent for medical procedures, and the potential social harms of targeting non-vaccinators. We conclude that the evidence does not support a move to an increasingly mandatory approach that could only be delivered through paternalistic, coercive clinical practices. (shrink)

Researchers of advanced technologies are constantly seeking new ways of measuring and adapting to user performance. Appropriately adapting system feedback requires accurate assessments of user performance. Unfortunately, many assessment algorithms must be trained on and use pre‐prepared data sets or corpora to provide a sufficiently accurate portrayal of user knowledge and behavior. However, if the targeted content of the tutoring system changes depending on the situation, the assessment algorithms must be sufficiently independent to apply to untrained content. Such is the (...) case for Interactive Strategy Training for Active Reading and Thinking (iSTART), an intelligent tutoring system that assesses the cognitive complexity of strategy use while a reader self‐explains a text. iSTART is designed so that teachers and researchers may add their own (new) texts into the system. The current paper explores student self‐explanations from newly added texts (which iSTART had not been trained on) and focuses on evaluating the iSTART assessment algorithm by comparing it to human ratings of the students’ self‐explanations. (shrink)

High‐throughput DNA analyses are increasingly being used to detect rare mutations in moderately sized genomes. These methods have yielded genome mutation rates that are markedly higher than those obtained using pre‐genomic strategies. Recent work in a variety of organisms has shown that mutation rate is strongly affected by sequence context and genome position. These observations suggest that high‐throughput DNA analyses will ultimately allow researchers to identify trans‐acting factors and cis sequences that underlie mutation rate variation. Such work should provide insights (...) on how mutation rate variability can impact genome organization and disease progression. (shrink)

Rebate has long been a crucial tool that has attracted researchers from a diverse range of fields including marketing and supply chain management. When a manufacturer uses a retailer for reaching end customers, the rebate strategy undertakes an additional dimension. Here we show whether the two rebate strategies, manufacturer rebate and channel rebate, can be the optimal choice for the manufacturer and the retailer. And we aim at full coordination with rebate. Game theory is exploited to identify the equilibrium (...) rebate decisions, which are fully characterized with two rebate strategies considering rebate sensitivity. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the decisions depend on parameters, such as market size, rebate redemption rate, and competition intensity in monopoly and duopoly supply chain systems. Our work also coordinates the supply chain with two coordination policies and examines if they can achieve full coordination. Counterintuitive findings suggest that the channel rebate with sensitivity and discrimination is not effective and the manufacturer rebate is the unique optimal option. Besides, the coordination can be realized with a centralized rebate in monopoly setting when the manufacturer forgoes her own interest. Then full coordination can be achieved in duopoly setting with a new coordination policy, rebate combination, given the redemption rate for the channel rebate is lower compared with the manufacturer rebate. Managerial insights are suggested that offering rebates with discrimination can have significant inventory and coordination policy implications and can lead to a double win under a well-controlled redemption rate. (shrink)

Previous research suggests that early performance of amnesic individuals in a probabilistic category learning task is relatively unimpaired. When combined with impaired declarative knowledge, this is taken as evidence for the existence of separate implicit and explicit memory systems. The present study contains a more fine-grained analysis of learning than earlier studies. Using a dynamic lens model approach with plausible learning models, we found that the learning process is indeed indistinguishable between an amnesic and control group. However, in contrast to (...) earlier findings, we found that explicit knowledge of the task structure is also good in both the amnesic and the control group. This is inconsistent with a crucial prediction from the multiple-systems account. The results can be explained from a single system account and previously found differences in later categorization performance can be accounted for by a difference in learning rate. (shrink)

Strategies for Successful Animal Shelters is the first book to assess the relationship between shelter traits, activities and critical outcome variables, such as live release or save rates. This book provides a data-based evaluation of shelter processes and practices with explicit recommendations for improved shelter activities. Using a survey of licensed animal shelters, case studies, and data on state inspections, complaints, and save rates, this book provides an assessment of the activities, processes, and procedures that are most likely to lead (...) to positive outcomes for a variety of animal shelters. The book also contributes to community debate around animal sheltering and provides best practices, methods and means to assess local shelters to ensure the highest level of animal welfare. It is a valuable resource for animal shelter professionals and rescue groups, as well as students in disciplines such as animal science, animal welfare and shelter medicine."--Back cover. (shrink)

Abstract – This study aimed primarily to determine the effectiveness of crime prevention strategies implemented by the Salug Valley Philippine National Police (PNP) in terms of Police Integrated Patrol System, Barangay Peacekeeping Operation, Anti-Criminality Operation, Integrated Area Community Public Safety services, Bantay Turista and School Safety Project as evaluated by 120 inhabitants and 138 PNP officers from four Municipalities of Salug Valley Zamboanga del Sur. Stratified random sampling was utilized in determining the respondents. Index crime rate were correlated with the (...) crime prevention strategies of the PNP in town of Salug Valley. A descriptive method of research was applied in this study utilizing self-made questionnaire. The data collected were analyzed using the main statistical tools like frequency count, percentage, mean computation, Kruskal Wallis Analysis of Variance and simple correlation. Findings of the study revealed that the crime prevention strategies in four (4) municipalities were “much effective” to include Integrated Patrol System, Barangay Peace Keeping Operations, Anti-Criminality Operations, Integrated Area Community Public Safety Services, Bantay Turista and School Safety Project in connection to the responses of 158 participants. There is a significant relationship between crime prevention strategies employed and index crime rate. (shrink)

Long before the origins of agriculture human ancestors had expanded across the globe into an immense variety of environments, from Australian deserts to Siberian tundra. Survival in these environments did not principally depend on genetic adaptations, but instead on evolved learning strategies that permitted the assembly of locally adaptive behavioral repertoires. To develop hypotheses about these learning strategies, we have modeled the evolution of learning strategies to assess what conditions and constraints favor which kinds of strategies. To build on prior (...) work, we focus on clarifying how spatial variability, temporal variability, and the number of cultural traits influence the evolution of four types of strategies: (1) individual learning, (2) unbiased social learning, (3) payoff-biased social learning, and (4) conformist transmission. Using a combination of analytic and simulation methods, we show that spatial—but not temporal—variation strongly favors the emergence of conformist transmission. This effect intensifies when migration rates are relatively high and individual learning is costly. We also show that increasing the number of cultural traits above two favors the evolution of conformist transmission, which suggests that the assumption of only two traits in many models has been conservative. We close by discussing how (1) spatial variability represents only one way of introducing the low-level, nonadaptive phenotypic trait variation that so favors conformist transmission, the other obvious way being learning errors, and (2) our findings apply to the evolution of conformist transmission in social interactions. Throughout we emphasize how our models generate empirical predictions suitable for laboratory testing. (shrink)

Rape conviction rates have fallen to all-time lows in recent years, prompting governments to explore a range of strategies to improve them. This paper argues that, while the current legal impunity for rape cannot be condoned, increasing conviction rates is not in itself a valid objective of law reform. The paper problematises the measure of rape law that conviction rates provide by developing an account of (some) feminist aims for rape law reform. Three feminist aims and associated measures are explained—all (...) of which look beyond conviction rates to qualitative and victim-centred outcomes of criminal justice processes. Applying these measures, I argue that strategies designed solely to increase conviction rates are more likely to work against, rather than in support of, feminist aims. The paper thus underscores the need for continued feminist engagement with rape law reform, broadly conceived, notwithstanding its acute limitations for feminist anti-violence politics. (shrink)

When making decisions, humans can observe many kinds of information about others' activities, but their effects on performance are not well understood. We investigated social learning strategies using a simple problem-solving task in which participants search a complex space, and each can view and imitate others' solutions. Results showed that participants combined multiple sources of information to guide learning, including payoffs of peers' solutions, popularity of solution elements among peers, similarity of peers' solutions to their own, and relative payoffs from (...) individual exploration. Furthermore, performance was positively associated with imitation rates at both the individual and group levels. When peers' payoffs were hidden, popularity and similarity biases reversed, participants searched more broadly and randomly, and both quality and equity of exploration suffered. We conclude that when peers' solutions can be effectively compared, imitation does not simply permit scrounging, but it can also facilitate propagation of good solutions for further cumulative exploration. (shrink)

Fundamental motor skills of children can be affected by different variables, such as executive functions, gender and relative age. However, the effects of these variables on FMS have been scarce studied, especially in early childhood, and show inconsistent results. To clarify these relationships, this study was carried out. Its aim was to analyze whether EF, gender and relative age influenced FMS in 43 Spanish kindergarteners. A multimethod and mixed methods approach was used. Kindergarteners’ teachers completed the Childhood Executive Functioning Inventory (...) to know the children level of EF. Kindergarteners’ parents complimented ad hoc questionnaire reporting the children gender and birth data. A Nomothetic/Punctual/Multidimensional observational design was used to observe children FMS in their habitual motor sessions at school. Two-way ANOVAs were performed to know the independent and interactive effects of working memory level, inhibition control level, gender and relative age on FMS. Results showed these variables have independent and interactive effects on some FMS, but not on others. FMS influenced by these variables vary depending what independent variable is/are considered. Therefore, it can be concluded that the influences of teacher-rated EF, gender and relative age on observed FMS in kindergarteners are complex and specific. Results obtained must be taken into to design and implement instructional and intervention strategies, as well as educational and sport policy changes, especially in early childhood, when FMS are more malleable. (shrink)

Ethical decision making is of concern to researchers across all fields. However, researchers typically focus on the biases that may act to undermine ethical decision making. Taking a new approach, this study focused on identifying the most common compensatory strategies that counteract those biases. These strategies were identified using a series of interviews with university researchers in a variety of areas, including biological, physical, social, and health as well as scholarship and the performing arts. Interview transcripts were assessed with two (...) scoring procedures, an expert rating system and computer-assisted qualitative analysis. Although the expert rating system identified Understanding Guidelines, Recognition of Insufficient Information, and Recognizing Boundaries as the most frequently used compensatory strategies across fields, other strategies, Striving for Transparency, Value/norm Assessment, and Following Appropriate Role Models, were identified as most common by the computer-assisted qualitative analyses. Potential reasons for these findings and implications for training and practice are identified and discussed. (shrink)

Strategies to increase influenza vaccination rates have typically targeted healthcare professionals and individuals in various high-risk groups such as the elderly. We argue that they should focus on increasing vaccination rates in children. Because children suffer higher influenza incidence rates than any other demographic group, and are major drivers of seasonal influenza epidemics, we argue that influenza vaccination strategies that serve to increase uptake rates in children are likely to be more effective in reducing influenza-related morbidity and mortality than those (...) targeting HCPs or the elderly. This is true even though influenza-related morbidity and mortality amongst children are low, except in the very young. Further, we argue that there are no decisive reasons to suppose that children-focused strategies are less ethically acceptable than elderly or HCP-focused strategies. (shrink)

Rural diversification strategies in Zimbabwe are wide in nature but the environment plays an important role in ensuring that sustainability and structural transformation are achieved. A good understanding of the diversity of rural livelihoods choices and income sources among rural households would therefore inform policy makers on appropriate policy interventions. This paper delves to establish the role of rural diversification strategies in promoting structural transformation in Zimbabwe using Insiza district as a case study. A mixed methods research design was used. (...) Both qualitative and quantitative data collection methods were applied. The study utilized semi-structured interviews with key informants who were purposively sampled to take part in the study. A total of 100 questionnaires were distributed and 86 were returned thus giving the researcher a response rate of 86%. The study’s findings noted that rural diversification is an important component of the rural economy and it plays an important component in order to achieve structural transformation using Insiza district in Zimbabwe as a case study. The study also noted that though climate was negatively impacting on the Insiza district residents, households that diversified their income sources had enhanced income compared with farming households which do not diversify their income sources being vulnerable. The study recommends that the government should intervene by financing and educating the rural folk. Micro-policy should be targeted on rural households incomes that facilitate the provision of widening income options through small scale group schemes. (shrink)

Aging is accompanied by changes in general cognitive functioning which may impact the learning rate of older adults; however, this is often not controlled for in cognitive aging studies. We investigated the contribution of differences in learning rates to age-related differences in landmark knowledge acquired from route learning. In Experiment 1 we used a standard learning procedure in which participants received a fixed amount of exposure to a route. Consistent with previous research, we found age-related deficits in associative cue and (...) landmark sequence knowledge. Experiment 2 controlled for differences in learning rates by using a flexible exposure learning procedure. Specifically, participants were trained to a performance criterion during route learning before being tested on the content of their route knowledge. While older adults took longer to learn the route than younger adults, the age-related differences in associative cue knowledge were abolished. The deficit in landmark sequence knowledge, however, remained. Experiment 3 replicated these results and introduced a test situation in which a deficit in landmark sequence knowledge yielded an increased likelihood of disorientation in older adults. The findings of this study suggest that age-related deficits in landmark associative cue knowledge are attenuated by controlling for learning rates. In contrast, landmark sequence knowledge deficits persist and are best explained by changes in the learning strategy of older adults to acquire task essential associative cue knowledge at the expense of supplementary sequence knowledge. (shrink)

This study revisits the relation between corporate performance and corporate social responsibility in the context of a major shift in firms’ credit risk status. Relying on corporate credit rating as a performance indicator, we examine whether firms under the scrutiny of rating agencies trade-off CSR engagement for credit quality improvement. To explore whether firms adjust their CSR engagement after a focal rating change, we focus on the investment–speculative grade threshold because of its importance in accessing the public debt market. We (...) find that firms that lose the investment grade rating subsequently increase CSR engagement. We also uncover that improving CSR engagement helps firms restore their credit ratings ex post. Our findings support the view of CSR engagement as a valuable risk management strategy. (shrink)

This study aims to explore the current situation and strategy formulation of sports psychology teaching in colleges and universities following adaptive learning and deep learning under information education. The informatization in physical education, teaching methods, and teaching processes make psychological education more scientific and efficient. First, the relevant theories of adaptive learning and deep learning are introduced, and an adaptive learning analysis model is implemented. Second, based on the deep learning automatic encoder, college students’ sports psychology is investigated and (...) the test results are predicted. Finally, the current situation and development strategy of physical education in colleges and universities are analyzed. The results show that when the learning rate is 1, 0.1, and 0.01, there is no significant change in the analysis factors of recall, ndcg, item_coverage, and sps. When the learning rate is 1, their analysis factors change obviously, and it is calculated that the optimal learning rate of the model is 1. And the difficulty of the recommended test questions by using the sports psychology teaching method based on adaptive learning and deep learning is relatively stable. The test questions include various language points of sports psychology. Compared with others methods, adaptive learning and deep learning can provide comprehensive test questions for sports psychology teaching. This study provides technical support for the reform of sports psychology teaching in colleges and universities and contributes to optimizing the information-based teaching mode. (shrink)

Despite several research on HIV/aids, it is still incumbent to investigate more effective control measures to mitigate its infection level. Therefore, we introduce an HIV/aids-resistant model with behavior change and study its basic properties. In order to determine the most sensitive parameters that are responsible for disease transmission with respect to the basic reproduction number and those responsible for disease prevalence with respect to the endemic equilibrium, the sensitivity analysis was established and it was confirmed that the influx rate of (...) people into the infected population and total abstinence from all risk practices and endemic areas are some of the most sensitive parameters for disease spread and disease eradication, respectively. Furthermore, by considering controls u1\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$u_1$$\end{document} denoting the government’s intervention in promoting and encouraging behavior change, u2\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$u_2$$\end{document} representing intake of balanced nutritional supplementation, and u3\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$u_3$$\end{document} connoting antiretroviral therapy (ART), an optimal control problem was developed and analyzed. Before the establishment of the necessary conditions of the optimal control using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle, we proved the existence of the optimal control triplet (u1(t),u2(t),u3(t)∈Φ,\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$(u_1(t),u_2(t),u_3(t)\in \Phi,$$\end{document} where Φ\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\Phi$$\end{document} is the control set at time t,) which has been neglected by many researchers in recent years. Using the Runge–Kutta scheme, the optimal control problem was solved to understand the best combination of control strategies. Using the demographic and epidemiological data for South Africa on HIV/aids, a numerical simulation was carried out and results are presented on 3D surface plots. The obtained results suggested that the combination of all the considered control measures is the best method to ensure disease eradication. (shrink)

Physarum polycephalum, a unicellular and multiheaded slime mould, can form highly efficient networks connecting separated food sources during the process of foraging. These adaptive networks exhibit a unique characteristic in that they are optimized without the control of a central consciousness. Inspired by this phenomenon, we present an efficient exploration and navigation strategy for a swarm of robots, which exploits cooperation and self-organisation to overcome the limited abilities of the individual robots. The task faced by the robots consists in (...) the exploration of an unknown environment in order to find a path between two distant target areas. For the proposed algorithm, we experimentally present robustness tests and obstacle tests conducted to analyse the performance of our algorithm and compare the proposed algorithm with other swarm robot foraging algorithms that also focus on the path formation task. This work has certain significance for the research of swarm robots and Physarum polycephalum. For the research of swarm robotics, our algorithm not only can lead multirobot as a whole to overcome the limitations of very simple individual agents but also can offer better performance in terms of search efficiency and success rate. For the research of Physarum polycephalum, this work is the first one combining swarm robots and Physarum polycephalum. It also reveals the potential of the Physarum polycephalum foraging principle in multirobot systems. (shrink)

Despite differences in their function and domain-specific elements, syntactic processing in music and language is believed to share cognitive resources. This study aims to investigate whether the simultaneous processing of language and music share the use of a common syntactic processor or more general attentional resources. To investigate this matter we tested musicians and non-musicians using visually presented sentences and aurally presented melodies containing syntactic local and long-distance dependencies. Accuracy rates and reaction times of participants’ responses were collected. In both (...) sentences and melodies, unexpected syntactic anomalies were introduced. This is the first study to address the processing of local and long-distance dependencies in language and music combined while reducing the effect of sensory memory. Participants were instructed to focus on language (language session), music (music session), or both (dual session). In the language session, musicians and non-musicians performed comparably in terms of accuracy rates and reaction times. As expected, groups’ differences appeared in the music session, with musicians being more accurate in their responses than non-musicians and only the latter showing an interaction between the accuracy rates for music and language syntax. In the dual session musicians were overall more accurate than non-musicians. However, both groups showed comparable behavior, by displaying an interaction between the accuracy rates for language and music syntax responses. In our study, accuracy rates seem to better capture the interaction between language and music syntax; and this interaction seems to indicate the use of distinct, however, interacting mechanisms as part of decision making strategy. This interaction seems to be subject of an increase of attentional load and domain proficiency. Our study contributes to the long-lasting debate about the commonalities between language and music by providing evidence for their interaction at a more domain-general level. (shrink)

We investigate a system of two species exploiting a common resource. We consider both abiotic (i.e. with a constant resource supply rate) and biotic (i.e. with resource reproduction and self-limitation) resources. We are interested in the asymmetric competition where a given consumer is the locally superior resource exploiter (LSE) and the other is the locally inferior resource exploiter (LIE). They also interact directly via interference competition in the sense that LIE individuals can use two opposite strategies to compete with LSE (...) individuals: we assume, in the first case, that LIE uses an avoiding strategy, i.e. LIE individuals go to a non-competition patch to avoids competition with LSE individuals, and in the second one, LIE uses an aggressive strategy, i.e. being very aggressive so that LSE individuals have to go to a non-competition patch. We further assume that there is no resource in the non-competition patch so that individuals have to come back to the competition patch for their maintenance, and the migration process acts on a fast time scale in comparison with demography and competition processes. The models show that being aggressive is efficient for LIE’s survival and even provoke global extinction of the LSE and this result does not depend on the nature of resource. (shrink)

Improving the reliability of electricity supply is closely related to the national industrial economy and people’s livelihood. When procuring electricity, the large consumer faces the risk of insufficient electricity supply. Such insufficiency may be caused by the supply disruption of the upstream electricity generator and the fluctuation of electricity prices in the electricity pool. We establish an expected cost model for the large consumer and a revenue model for the electricity generator by introducing robustness and opportunity functions to analyse the (...) impact of supply disruption and price fluctuation on both members. Then, we obtain the optimal reliability level and subsidy rate. Our analytical results reveal the following points: During an electricity price fluctuation, the sufficient and necessary condition for the large consumer to expect high robustness of his own decision-making is to pay a high cost. The high uncertainty of electricity price leads to less revenue for the electricity generator; thus, the electricity generator should perform well in price forecasting. Without disruption risk, the electricity generator is reliable. Furthermore, the electricity pool is unreliable from the perspective of price. However, the electricity supply of the electricity generator is no longer reliable when considering disruption risk, whereas the electricity pool is reliable because the large consumer is tolerant of price fluctuation under this circumstance. Moreover, the impacts of market uncertainty and players’ attributes on the optimal strategies are explored. (shrink)

Many families refuse to consent to donation from their deceased relatives or over-rule the consent given before death by the patient, but giving families more information about the potential recipients of organs could reduce refusal rates. In this paper, we analyse arguments for and against doing so, and conclude that this strategy should be attempted. While it would be impractical and possibly unethical to give details of actual potential recipients, generic, realistic information about the people who could benefit from (...) organs should be provided to families before they make a decision about donation or attempt to over-rule it. (shrink)

Cas9/guide RNA (gRNA)‐based gene drive systems are expected to play a transformative role in malaria elimination efforts., whether through population modification, in which the drive system contains parasite‐refractory genes, or population suppression, in which the drive system induces a severe fitness load resulting in population decline or extinction. DNA sequence polymorphisms representing alternate alleles at gRNA target sites may confer a drive‐resistant phenotype in individuals carrying them. Modeling predicts that, for observed levels of SGV at potential target sites and observed (...) rates of de novo DRA formation, population modification strategies are uniquely resilient to DRAs. We conclude that gene drives can succeed when fitness costs incurred by drive‐carrying mosquitoes are low enough to prevent strong positive selection for DRAs produced de novo or as part of the SGV and that population modification strategies are less prone to failure due to drive resistance. (shrink)

Resolving the challenge of flight delays caused by air traffic congestion renders it necessary to explore the mode of congestion propagation. By applying complex network theory, this article establishes a complex network structure where airspace sectors act as nodes, and the edges represent traffic flow relationships between sectors. In addition, a cascading failure model is proposed to analyze the airspace sector network’s invulnerability. The critical threshold and the sector abnormality rate are determined according to the cascading failure measurement indexes. Based (...) on the remaining capacity of sector nodes, two optimization strategies are proposed: adjacent load redistribution strategy and local load redistribution strategy. The simulation results demonstrate that the local load redistribution strategy greatly improves the airspace sector network’s invulnerability to cascading failure. (shrink)

This paper deals with designing a harvesting control strategy for a predator–prey dynamical system, with parametric uncertainties and exogenous disturbances. A feedback control law for the harvesting rate of the predator is formulated such that the population dynamics is asymptotically stabilized at a positive operating point, while maintaining a positive, steady state harvesting rate. The hierarchical block strict feedback structure of the dynamics is exploited in designing a backstepping control law, based on Lyapunov theory. In order to account for (...) unknown parameters, an adaptive control strategy has been proposed in which the control law depends on an adaptive variable which tracks the unknown parameter. Further, a switching component has been incorporated to robustify the control performance against bounded disturbances. Proofs have been provided to show that the proposed adaptive control strategy ensures asymptotic stability of the dynamics at a desired operating point, as well as exact parameter learning in the disturbance-free case and learning with bounded error in the disturbance prone case. The dynamics, with uncertainty in the death rate of the predator, subjected to a bounded disturbance has been simulated with the proposed control strategy. (shrink)

The Anglican Church of Kenya (ACK) is the oldest church in Kenya and the largest protestant denomination in the country. Since religions were liberalized after the attainment of political independence in AD 1964, the church has experienced declining congregations due to the registration of new denominations, especially the Pentecostal ones. The decline has been noticeable from the beginning of the 21st Century but there are no reports of strategies to resolve the phenomenon. Since congregation members are the customers for a (...) church, the declining phenomenon indicates a marketing problem that requires a marketing strategy. This research investigated how the ACK is operationalizing a marketing strategy and its influence on its sustainability. The ACK operates on standardized structures and a diocese is the highest independent unit. This research was conducted in the diocese of Kirinyaga as the unit of analysis with Wanguru Archdeaconry as the unit of observation. The independent variables were the elements of the marketing mix, namely Product, Promotion, Position and Price strategies while the dependent variable was the church sustainability. Data collection involved 308 participants drawn from the 19 parishes in the Wanguru archdeaconry and included the church leadership and the congregation members. The research instruments were a semi-structured questionnaire and interviews. For the Product variable, the research applied the Maslow Hierarchy of needs theory while for the promotion variable, it was the AIDA Model (Attention, Interest, Desire and Action). For the positioning strategy, the Segmentation, Targeting and Positioning (STP) Model was applied while the Value-Based Pricing theory was used for the price strategy. For church sustainability, the research applied the Triple Bottom Line model. Data analysis was conducted using Structural Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). The results indicated that the ACK has not operationalized an effective marketing strategy for while the Gospel as the marketing product of the church was highly rated, there were low scores for Promotion, Position and Price strategies. (shrink)

Resumo: Os processos avaliativos, na universidade, são perpassados por um ethos que prima pela quantificação e pelo ranqueamento. Em decorrência, observa-se cada vez mais a descaracterização da avaliação na sua acepção qualitativa e, consequentemente, formativa. A afirmação desse ethos, na universidade, bem como na sociedade, é facilitada pelos algoritmos de big data, os quais estão na base da constituição da chamada “sociedade métrica”, em que há uma tendência geral para utilizar formas quantitativas para realizar classificações sociais. Neste texto, com respaldo (...) em revisão de literatura, objetiva-se refletir sobre dois processos de avaliação de docentes que atuam no ensino superior e que ultrapassam o espaço acadêmico pela sua dimensão pública espetacularizada: a) o ranqueamento da produção docente, por meio do índice h; e b) a avaliação realizada por estudantes em sites públicos, neste caso específico, o site de avaliação docente ratemyprofessors.com. A partir destas duas estratégias de avaliação, professores, pesquisadores e alunos envolvem-se em uma espécie de certame onde se mostrar, ser visto, monitorado, classificado passa a ser critério de aprovação (percebido) ou, no limite, perda de financiamentos e do próprio trabalho (cancelado). Palavras-chave: Avaliação Docente; Algoritmos; Sociedade Métrica; Cultura Digital. Entre el ranking y el rating: La evaluación digital del profesor en la era de la sociedad métrica Resumen: Los procesos de evaluación en la universidad están impregnados de un ethos que busca la cuantificación y el ranqueo. Como resultado, se observa cada vez más la descaracterización de la evaluación en su sentido cualitativo y, en consecuencia, formativo. La afirmación de este ethos, tanto en la universidad como en la sociedad, se ve facilitada por los algoritmos de big data, que están en la base de la constitución de la llamada “sociedad métrica”, en la que existe una tendencia generalizada a utilizar formas cuantitativas para realizar clasificaciones sociales. En este texto, apoyado en una revisión de la literatura, el objetivo es reflexionar sobre dos procesos de evaluación de profesores que laboran en la educación superior y que van más allá del espacio académico por su dimensión pública espectacularizada: a) el ranking de la producción docente, a través del índice h, b) la evaluación realizada por los estudiantes en los sitios web públicos, en este caso concreto, el sitio web de evaluación del profesorado ratemyprofessors.com. A partir de estas dos estrategias de evaluación, docentes, investigadores y estudiantes se involucran en una especie de certamen en el que mostrarse, ser visto, monitoreado, clasificado se convierte en un criterio de aprobación (percibido) o, en última instancia, pérdida de financiamiento y trabajo propio (cancelado). Palabras-clave: Evaluación Docente; Algoritmos; Sociedad Métrica; Cultura Digital. Between ranking and rating: Digital evaluation of professors in the metric society Abstract: Evaluation processes at universities are permeated by an ethos that emphasizes quantification and ranking. As a result, an increasing discharacterization of the qualitative and thus educational sense of evaluation is observed. The affirmation of this ethos in universities, and in society as a whole, is facilitated by big data algorithms, which are at the foundation of the constitution of the so-called ‘metric society’, in which there is a general trend to use quantitative forms to conduct social classifications. This text, supported by a review of the literature, reflects on two processes of evaluation of professors of higher education that go beyond the academic space because of their spectacularized public dimension: the ranking of professor production, by the “h index” and b) evaluations conducted by students on public online sites, in this case, the ratemyprofessors.com site. Based on these two evaluation strategies, professors, researchers, and students are involved in a dispute in which displaying oneself, being seen, monitored, and classified become criteria for (perceived) approval, or, at the limit, for a loss of financing for one’s work (canceling). Keywords: Evaluation Of Professors; Algorithms; Metric Society; Critical Theory; Digital Culture. Data de registro: 15/04/2022 Data de aceite: 13/12/2022. (shrink)

In the exploratory study reported here, we tested the efficacy of an intervention designed to train teenagers with Möbius syndrome (MS) to increase the use of alternative communication strategies (e.g., gestures) to compensate for their lack of facial expressivity. Specifically, we expected the intervention to increase the level of rapport experienced in social interactions by our participants. In addition, we aimed to identify the mechanisms responsible for any such increase in rapport. In the study, five teenagers with MS interacted with (...) three naïve participants without MS before the intervention, and with three different naïve participants without MS after the intervention. Rapport was assessed by self-report and by behavioral coders who rated videos of the interactions. Individual non-verbal behavior was assessed via behavioral coders, whereas verbal behavior was automatically extracted from the sound files. Alignment was assessed using cross recurrence quantification analysis and mixed-effects models. The results showed that observer-coded rapport was greater after the intervention, whereas self-reported rapport did not change significantly. Observer-coded gesture and expressivity increased in participants with and without MS, whereas overall linguistic alignment decreased. Fidgeting and repetitiveness of verbal behavior also decreased in both groups. In sum, the intervention may impact non-verbal and verbal behavior in participants with and without MS, increasing rapport as well as overall gesturing, while decreasing alignment. (shrink)

A diagnostic judgment of a teacher can be seen as an inference from manifest observable evidence on a student’s behavior to his or her latent traits. This can be described by a Bayesian model of in-ference: The teacher starts from a set of assumptions on the student (hypotheses), with subjective probabilities for each hypothesis (priors). Subsequently, he or she uses observed evidence (stu-dents’ responses to tasks) and knowledge on conditional probabilities of this evidence (likelihoods) to revise these assumptions. Many systematic (...) deviations from this model (biases, e.g. base-rate neglect, inverse fallacy) are reported in literature on Bayesian reasoning. In a teacher’s situation the information (hypotheses, priors, likelihoods) is usually not explicitly represented numerically (as in most research on Bayesian reasoning), but only by qualitative esti-mations in the mind of the teacher. In our study, we ask to which extent individuals (approximately) apply a rational Bayesian strategy or resort on other biased strategies of processing information for their diagnostic judgments. We explicitly pose this question with respect to non-numerical settings. To investigate this question, we developed a scenario that visually displays all relevant information (hypotheses, priors, likelihoods) in a graphically displayed hypothesis space (called “hypothegon”) – without recurring to numerical representations or mathematical procedures. 42 pre-service teach-ers were asked to judge the plausibility of different misconceptions of six students based on their responses to decimal comparison tasks (e.g. 3.39 > 3.4). Applying a Bayesian classification proce-dure, we identified three updating strategies: A Bayesian update strategy (BUS, processing all probabilities), a combined evidence strategy (CES, ignoring the prior probabilities but including all likelihoods), and a single evidence strategy (SES, only using the likelihood of the most probable hypothesis). In study 1, an instruction on the relevance of using all probabilities (priors and likelihoods) only weakly increased the processing of more information. In study 2, we found strong evidence that a visual explication of the prior-likelihood interaction led to an increase of processing the interaction of all relevant information. These results show that the phenomena found in general research on Bayesian reasoning in numerical settings extend to diagnostic judgments in non-numerical settings. (shrink)

Vaccine hesitancy is a growing threat to public health. The reasons are complex but linked inextricably to a lack of trust in vaccines, expertise and traditional sources of authority. Efforts to increase immunization uptake in children in many countries that have seen a fall in vaccination rates are two-fold: addressing hesitancy by improving healthcare professional-parent exchange and information provision in the clinic; and, secondly, public health strategies that can override parental concerns and values with coercive measures such as mandatory and (...) presumptive vaccination. It is argued that such conflicting, parallel approaches seriously risk undermining trust that is crucial for sustaining herd immunity. Although public health strategies can be ethically justified in limiting freedoms, a parent-centered approach seldom acknowledges how it is impacted by contemporaneous coercive measures. In addition, the clinical encounter is not well suited to helping parents consider the public dimensions of vaccination, despite these being important for trust formation and informed decision-making. Efforts to address vaccine hesitancy require more consistent engagement of parental and citizen views. Along with evidence-based information, debates need to be informed by ethical support that equips parents and professionals to respond to the private and public dimensions of vaccination in a more even-handed, transparent manner. Efforts to address vaccine hesitancy need to avoid simple reliance on either parental values or coercive public policies. To do this effectively requires increasing citizen engagement on vaccination to help inform a parent-centered approach and legitimize public policy measures. In addition, cultivating a more ethically consistent strategy means moving beyond the current silos of health ethics - clinical and public health ethics. (shrink)

Ego-justifying, group-justifying, and system-justifying motivations contribute to base-rate respect. People tend to neglect (and use) base rates when doing so allows them to draw desired conclusions about matters such as their health, the traits of their in-groups, and the fairness of the social system. Such motivations can moderate whether people rely on the rule-based versus associative strategies identified by Barbey & Sloman (B&S).

Patterns of three variables of reproductive strategies in male New World primates are examined: (i) how males obtain access to potential mates; (ii) how males obtain actual mating opportunities; and (iii) how males affect infant survival and female reproductive success. Male opportunities to associate with females, whether by remaining in their natal groups, dispersing and forming new groups, or dispersing and taking over or joining established groups, are strongly influenced by local population densities and correlate with female reproductive rates and (...) the extent of female reproductive seasonality and synchrony. Differences in male mating success are affected by female accessibility, whether male-male and male-female relationships are hierarchical or egalitarian, and whether female reproduction is seasonally restricted. Patterns of male behavior toward infants, characterized as active assistance, overt interference, or benign tolerance, appear to co-vary with differences in the degree to which males can affect female reproductive rates.These qualitative analyses suggest that the reproductive strategies of male New World primates can be classified along a continuum ranging from conservative to daring depending on whether female reproductive rates are relatively slow or fast and whether reproduction is strongly or weakly linked to seasonal ecological variables. Males adopt the conservative strategy of staying in their natal groups, forfeiting exclusive mating opportunities, and treating infants with tolerance when female reproduction is constrained by ecological factors. Conversely, males adopt the more daring strategy of dispersing and competing when potential payoffs through their ability to affect female reproduction are high. (shrink)

Most children experience some form of grouping in the classroom every day. Understanding how teachers make grouping decisions and their impacts on children’s social development can shed light on effective teacher practices for promoting positive social dynamics in the classroom. This study examined the influence of teachers’ grouping strategies on changes in young children’s social experiences with peers across an academic year. A total of 1,463 children and 79 teachers from kindergarten to third-grade classrooms participated in this study. Teachers rated (...) children’s behavioral problems as the most important consideration when creating seating charts or assigning children to small groups. Promoting existing or new friendships was rated as the least important consideration. Heterogeneous ability grouping, rated as somewhat important by the teachers, was associated with a decrease in children’s friendships and yet also a decrease in girls’ experience with peer conflicts. Our findings begin to fill in the gaps in the literature on the social impacts of ability grouping for young children. (shrink)

WHO II low grade glioma evolves inevitably to anaplastic transformation. Magnetic resonance imaging is a good non-invasive way to watch it, by hemodynamic and metabolic modifications, thanks to multinuclear spectroscopy 1H/31P. In this work we study a multi-scale minimal model of hemodynamics and metabolism applied to the study of gliomas. This mathematical analysis leads us to a fast-slow system. The control of the position of the stationary point brings to the concept of domain of viability. Starting from this system, the (...) equations bring to light the parameters that push glioma cells out of their domain of viability. Four fundamental factors are highlighted. The first two are cerebral blood flow and the rate of lactate transport through monocarboxylate transporters, which must be reduced in order to push glioma out of its domain of viability. Another factor is the intra arterial lactate, which must be increased. The last factor is pH, indeed a decrease of intra cellular pH could interfere with glioma growth. These reflections suggest that these four parameters could lead to new therapeutic strategies for the management of low grade gliomas. (shrink)

Cognitive hearing science is mainly about the study of how cognitive factors contribute to speech comprehension, but cognitive factors also partake in speech processing to infer non-linguistic information from speech signals, such as the intentions of the talker and the speaker’s age. Here, we report two experiments on age estimation by “naïve” listeners. The aim was to study how speech rate influences estimation of speaker age by comparing the speakers’ natural speech rate with increased or decreased speech rate. In Experiment (...) 1, listeners were presented with audio samples of read speech from three different speaker age groups (young, middle aged, and old adults). They estimated the speakers as younger when speech rate was faster than normal and as older when speech rate was slower than normal. This speech rate effect was slightly greater in magnitude for older (60–65 years) speakers in comparison with younger (20–25 years) speakers, suggesting that speech rate may gain greater importance as a perceptual age cue with increased speaker age. This pattern was more pronounced in Experiment 2, in which listeners estimated age from spontaneous speech. Faster speech rate was associated with lower age estimates, but only for older and middle aged (40–45 years) speakers. Taken together, speakers of all age groups were estimated as older when speech rate decreased, except for the youngest speakers in Experiment 2. The absence of a linear speech rate effect in estimates of younger speakers, for spontaneous speech, implies that listeners use different age estimation strategies or cues (possibly vocabulary) depending on the age of the speaker and the spontaneity of the speech. Potential implications for forensic investigations and other applied domains are discussed. (shrink)

A number of studies have investigated and found a significant relationship among economic wealth, Hofstede’s national culture dimensions, and software piracy rates (SPR). No study, however, has examined the relationship between economic wealth, culture, and the fact that national SPRs have been declining steadily since 1994. Using a larger sample than has previously been available (57 countries), we confirm the expected negative relationship between economic wealth, culture (individualism and masculinity) and levels of software piracy. The rate of decline in software (...) piracy, however, is found to be a cultural phenomenon, with two factors (power distance (PDI) and uncertainty avoidance (UAI)) working in opposition. Similar results are found for a subset of 37 relatively poor countries. This suggests that, while the rise in economic wealth seen for most countries should lead to a reduction in software piracy, the rate of decline is determined by cultural factors. Global strategies for dealing with software piracy are discussed. (shrink)

Intervening on causal systems can illuminate their underlying structures. Past work has shown that, relative to adults, young children often make intervention decisions that appear to confirm a single hypothesis rather than those that optimally discriminate alternative hypotheses. Here, we investigated how the ability to make informative causal interventions changes across development. Ninety participants between the ages of 7 and 25 completed 40 different puzzles in which they had to intervene on various causal systems to determine their underlying structures. Each (...) puzzle comprised a three‐ or four‐node computer chip with hidden wires. On each trial, participants viewed two possible arrangements of the chip's hidden wires and had to select a single node to activate. After observing the outcome of their intervention, participants selected a wire configuration and rated their confidence in their selection. We characterized participant choices with a Bayesian measurement model that indexed the extent to which participants selected nodes that would best disambiguate the two possible causal structures versus those that had high causal centrality in one of the two causal hypotheses but did not necessarily discriminate between them. Our model estimates revealed that the use of a discriminatory strategy increased through early adolescence. Further, developmental improvements in intervention strategy were related to changes in the ability to accurately judge the strength of evidence that interventions revealed, as indexed by participants' confidence in their selections. Our results suggest that improvements in causal information‐seeking extend into adolescence and may be driven by metacognitive sensitivity to the efficacy of previous interventions in discriminating competing ideas. (shrink)