We propose two different characterizations for preference relations representable by lower (upper) expectations with the aim of removing either fair price or completeness requirements. Moreover, we give an explicit characterization for comparative degrees of belief on a finite algebra of events representable by lower probabilities.

I argue that the explanatory gap is generated by factors consistent with the view that qualia are physical properties. I begin by considering the most plausible current approach to this issue based on recent work by Valerie Hardcastle and Clyde Hardin. Although their account of the source of the explanatory gap and our potential to close it is attractive, I argue that it is too speculative and philosophically problematic. I then argue that the explanatory gap should not concern physicalists because (...) it makes excessive demands on physical theory. (shrink)

Standard models of portfolio investment rely on various statistical measures of dispersion. Such measures favor returns smoothed over all states of the world and penalize abnormally low as well as abnormally high returns. A model of portfolio investment based on the tradeoff between expected return and expected loss considers only abnormally low returns as undesirable. Such a model has a comparative advantage over other existing models in that a first-order stochastically dominant portfolio always has a higher expected return and a (...) lower expected loss. Expected return—expected loss model of portfolio investment can rationalize the equity premium puzzle. Two random variables are not comoving if there is at least one state of the world in which one random variable yields a positive return and the other—a negative return. Such random variables provide hedging benefits from diversification in portfolio investment according to the expected return—expected loss model. A special case of this model, when an investor linearly trade-offs expected returns and expected losses, is also a special case of the prospect theory when a decision-maker has a piece-wise linear value function without any probability weighting. (shrink)

In the present study, qualitative and quantitative studies were conducted to explore differences between stakeholders in expectations of gendered robots, with a focus on their specific application in the field of psychotherapy. In Study I, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 18 experts in psychotherapy to extract categories of opinions regarding the use of humanoid robots in the field. Based on these extracted categories, in Study II, an online questionnaire survey was conducted to compare concrete expectations of the use of humanoid (...) robots in psychotherapy between 50 experts and 100 nonexperts in psychotherapy. The results revealed that compared with the female participants, the male participants tended to prefer robots with a female appearance. In addition, compared with the experts, the nonexperts tended not to relate the performance of robots with their gender appearance, and compared with the other participant groups, the female expert participants had lower expectations of the use of robots in the field. These findings suggest that differences between stakeholders regarding the expectations of gendered robots should be resolved to encourage their acceptance in a specific field. (shrink)

Four real-life dilemma cases collected from Hong Kong managers were included, along with two other cases previously used by Weber (1991), in an instrument designed to assess ethical reasoning capacity. This was completed by 86 part-time post-graduate students, all of whom were managers with at least four years working experience. Respondents'' measured ethical reasoning capacity appeared to be at least as high as comparable samples in the U.S.A. The mean ethical reasoning stage varied between cases. Contrary to expectations, the unfamiliarityper (...) se of a case did not affect ethical reasoning which instead tended toward higher measured stages when issues of public hazard or environmental pollution were introduced, and toward lower measured stages where personal or family finances were at stake. Two methodological points were made signalling the need for caution in research of this kind. First, because of reservations about the adequacy of the standard Kohlbergian model of ethical reasoning development, a scoring guide based on a revised Kohlbergian model of ethical reasoning was used to analyze the replies, rendering comparisons with other samples inexact. Second, the possible phenomenon of quasi Stage Five reasoning renders problematic the identification of true Stage Five ethical reasoning. (shrink)

Vague subjective probability may be modeled by means of a set of probability functions, so that the represented opinion has only a lower and upper bound. The standard rule of conditionalization can be straightforwardly adapted to this. But this combination has difficulties which, though well known in the technical literature, have not been given sufficient attention in probabilist or Bayesian epistemology. Specifically, updating on apparently irrelevant bits of news can be destructive of one’s explicitly prior expectations. Stability of vague subjective (...) opinion appears to need a more complex model. (shrink)

With the start of teaching the sect-based Islamic religion lesson in public schools within the scope of a pilot project in Germany, the development and efforts are continuing to ensure that the course can be given both as a lesson in accordance with the constitution and in accordance with the wishes and expecta-tions of Muslims. Since the Islamic religion lesson is still in the process of formation, one of the most curious points is what the expectations of Muslim families from (...) the lessom are. For this reason, in this study, the state of Baden-Württemberg, one of the states of Germany, in the 2018/2019 academic year, 1-4th grades in public schools. It is aimed to determine the opinions and expectations of the parents of Tur-kish Muslim students who take this lesson from the Islamic religion lesson, which is given as a pilot pro-ject at grade levels, on the issues related to the operation and application of the lesson in the light of cur-rent practices. The study is important in terms of revealing the current status of the lesson and shed light on the future development of the lesson in accordance with the wishes and expectations of Muslim fami-lies. Qualitative research method was used in the research. Research data were collected by semi-structured interview technique consisting of open-ended questions. The research sample consists of 11 Turkish students' parents. In the research, the views and expectations of the parents were expressed with the help of the analysis categories in the form of lower and upper categories. Thus, evaluations were made about at which points the Islamic religion lesson is suitable for the expectations of the parents and at which points it should be made appropriate. (shrink)

The present study examined the effect of expectation and evaluation of spouse’s filial piety on marital satisfaction among young Chinese couples. We administered scales assessing gender role attitude, marital satisfaction, and expectation and evaluation of spouse’s filial piety on 422 married participants and explored the relationships among these variables. The results showed the following: gender role attitude mediated the relationship between participants’ gender and evaluation of their spouse’s filial piety. There was no significant gender difference in the evaluation (...) of spouse’s filial piety; however, men were more likely to have a traditional gender role attitude, and a traditional gender role attitude leads to lower evaluation of spouse’s filial piety. Furthermore, it was found that the wife’s sibling condition influenced the participants’ expectation and evaluation of spouse’s filial piety as compared to the husband’s; the evaluation of spouse’s filial piety was significantly positively correlated with marital satisfaction; and women’s expectations of their husband’s filial piety moderated this relationship. The positive effects of the evaluation of spouse’s filial piety on marital satisfaction were significantly stronger when they had high expectations in this regard. (shrink)

A mixture preorder is a preorder on a mixture space (such as a convex set) that is compatible with the mixing operation. In decision theoretic terms, it satisfies the central expected utility axiom of strong independence. We consider when a mixture preorder has a multi-representation that consists of real-valued, mixture-preserving functions. If it does, it must satisfy the mixture continuity axiom of Herstein and Milnor (1953). Mixture continuity is sufficient for a mixture-preserving multi-representation when the dimension of the mixture space (...) is countable, but not when it is uncountable. Our strongest positive result is that mixture continuity is sufficient in conjunction with a novel axiom we call countable domination, which constrains the order complexity of the mixture preorder in terms of its Archimedean structure. We also consider what happens when the mixture space is given its natural weak topology. Continuity (having closed upper and lower sets) and closedness (having a closed graph) are stronger than mixture continuity. We show that continuity is necessary but not sufficient for a mixture preorder to have a mixture-preserving multi-representation. Closedness is also necessary; we leave it as an open question whether it is sufficient. We end with results concerning the existence of mixture-preserving multi-representations that consist entirely of strictly increasing functions, and a uniqueness result. (shrink)

A mixture preorder is a preorder on a mixture space (such as a convex set) that is compatible with the mixing operation. In decision theoretic terms, it satisfies the central expected utility axiom of strong independence. We consider when a mixture preorder has a multi-representation that consists of real-valued, mixture-preserving functions. If it does, it must satisfy the mixture continuity axiom of Herstein and Milnor (1953). Mixture continuity is sufficient for a mixture-preserving multi-representation when the dimension of the mixture space (...) is countable, but not when it is uncountable. Our strongest positive result is that mixture continuity is sufficient in conjunction with a novel axiom we call countable domination, which constrains the order complexity of the mixture preorder in terms of its Archimedean structure. We also consider what happens when the mixture space is given its natural weak topology. Continuity (having closed upper and lower sets) and closedness (having a closed graph) are stronger than mixture continuity. We show that continuity is necessary but not sufficient for a mixture preorder to have a mixture-preserving multi-representation. Closedness is also necessary; we leave it as an open question whether it is sufficient. We end with results concerning the existence of mixture-preserving multi-representations that consist entirely of strictly increasing functions, and a uniqueness result. (shrink)

We generalize the concept of Nash equilibrium in mixed strategies for strategic form games to allow for ambiguity in the players' expectations. In contrast to other contributions, we model ambiguity by means of so-called lower probability measures or belief functions, which makes it possible to distinguish between a player's assessment of ambiguity and his attitude towards ambiguity. We also generalize the concept of trembling hand perfect equilibrium. Finally, we demonstrate that for certain attitudes towards ambiguity it is possible to explain (...) cooperation in the one-shot Prisoner's Dilemma in a way that is in accordance with some recent experimental findings. (shrink)

At present, the motion control algorithms of lower limb exoskeleton robots have errors in tracking the desired trajectory of human hip and knee joints, which leads to poor follow-up performance of the human-machine system. Therefore, an iterative learning control algorithm is proposed to track the desired trajectory of human hip and knee joints. In this paper, the experimental platform of lower limb exoskeleton rehabilitation robot is built, and the control system software and hardware design and robot prototype function test are (...) carried out. On this basis, a series of experiments are carried out to verify the rationality of the robot structure and the feasibility of the control method. Firstly, the dynamic model of the lower limb exoskeleton robot is established based on the structure analysis of the human lower limb; secondly, the servo control model of the lower limb exoskeleton robot is established based on the iterative learning control algorithm; finally, the exponential gain closed-loop system is designed by using MATLAB software. The relationship between convergence speed and spectral radius is analyzed, and the expected trajectory of hip joint and knee joint is obtained. The simulation results show that the algorithm can effectively improve the gait tracking accuracy of the lower limb exoskeleton robot and improve the follow-up performance of the human-machine system. (shrink)

Nobel laureate James Buchanan downplays any theory of ethical politicians, focusing instead on rules which economize personal restraint, setting lower moral expectations. Through a constructive critique of James Buchanan’s work, I argue these lowered expectations come at a cost: degraded character in politicians, leading to constitutional decay. Buchanan lacks a theory to address choices between (a) action which furthers the politician’s self-interest and (b) action which protects some already accepted, good rule, but which does not further their self-interest. I (...) generate a theory of the Principled Politician, an agent characterized by a prior commitment to fair play. (shrink)

Dozens of articles have addressed the challenge that gambles having undefined expectation pose for decision theory. This paper makes two contributions. The first is incremental: we evolve Colyvan's ``Relative Expected Utility Theory'' into a more viable ``conservative extension of expected utility theory" by formulating and defending emendations to a version of this theory proposed by Colyvan and H\'ajek. The second is comparatively more surprising. We show that, so long as one assigns positive probability to the theory that there is (...) a uniform bound on the utility of possible gambles (and assuming a uniform bound on the amount of utility that can accrue in a fixed amount of time), standard principles of anthropic reasoning (as formulated by Brandon Carter) place lower and upper bounds on the expected values of gambles advertised as having no expectation--even assuming that with positive probability, all gambles advertised as having infinite expected utility are administered faithfully. Should one accept the uniform bound premises, this reasoning thus dissolves (or nearly dissolves, in some cases) several puzzles in infinite decision theory. (shrink)

Decision-making competence reflects individual differences in the susceptibility to decision-making errors, measured using tasks common from behavioral decision research (e.g., framing effects, under/overconfidence, following decision rules). Prior research demonstrates that those with higher decision-making competence report lower incidence of health-risking and antisocial behaviors, but there has been less focus on intermediate mechanisms that may impact real-world decisions, and, in particular, those implicated by normative models. Here we test the associations between measures of youth decision-making competence (Y-DMC) and one such mechanism, (...) the degree to which individuals make choices consistent with maximizing expected value (EV). Using a task involving hypothetical gambles, we find that greater EV sensitivity is associated with greater Y-DMC. Higher Y-DMC scores are associated with (a) choosing risky options when expected value favors those options and (b) avoiding risky options when expected value favors a certain option. This relationship is stronger for gambles that involved potential losses. The results suggest that Y-DMC captures decision processes consistent with standard normative evaluations of risky decisions. (shrink)

This study aims to investigate assortative mating based on mate value from male perspective. Male participants (132 Brazilian and 106 American) evaluated hypothetical “stimulus” males described in terms of physical attractiveness, social skills, and social status (each varied in high or low levels). Participants rated each stimulus and each stimulus' preferred mating partner on nine traits. The results showed that (1) positive assortative mating was expected in romantic relationships; (2) the stimulus ratings did not vary independently, suggesting that mate value (...) is the result of the interaction of the characteristics of individuals; and (3) that participants expected physically attractive and healthier female partners to pair with high-status male stimuli. The American and Brazilian mating expectations were similar, minor differences indicate that Brazilian participants considered men with high levels of social skills to be more ambitious and intelligent; American participants expected men of high status to be healthier; Brazilians expect men of high status to have more attractive faces, while Americans expected these men to possess more attractive bodies; and Brazilian participants assigned more attractive bodies to men of lower status. These differences reflect the influence of economic and cultural factors on the local environment. The study contributes to the understanding of the construction of market value and reveals that male expectations are in line with human mating preferences. The investigation of mating expectations can be a rich approach to investigate socio-cultural aspects that are related to mating in different cultures. (shrink)

Streaming in secondary schools is not beneficial for improving student outcomes of education with vast amounts of educational research indicating that it does not improve academic results and increases inequity. Yet teachers often prefer working in streamed classes, and research shows that teachers mediate the effects of streaming on students. This study sought to add to the understanding of teachers’ role in student learning by investigating how teachers conceptualise the students in streamed classes. A qualitative case study approach was used, (...) where 18 teachers were interviewed in-depth to create narrative examples, three of which are presented here. These narratives summarise the research findings that teachers saw students in high and low streams as having homogenous characteristics according to five dichotomous categories: approach to learning, attitude to learning, learning style, autonomy and background. Students in mixed-ability classes were viewed along these same continua, but as more heterogeneous groups. Furthermore, these views of students had direct implications for how teachers planned for learning and the expectations that they held of their students. The discussion links streaming research with teacher expectation research, suggesting that teachers of streamed classes in this secondary school hold specific whole-class ideas that affect student learning. The article concludes with recommendations for further inquiry that links these two important fields of educational research. (shrink)

The distribution of scarce healthcare resources is an increasingly important issue due to factors such as expensive ‘high tech’ medicine, longer life expectancies and the rising prevalence of chronic illness. Furthermore, in the current healthcare context lifestyle-related factors such as high blood pressure, tobacco use and obesity are believed to contribute significantly to the global burden of disease. As such, this paper focuses on an ongoing debate in the academic literature regarding the role of responsibility for illness in healthcare resource (...) allocation: should patients with self-caused illness receive lower priority in access to healthcare resources? This paper critically describes the lower priority debate's 12 key arguments and maps out their relationships. This analysis reveals that most arguments have been refuted and that the debate has stalled and remains unresolved. In conclusion, we suggest progression could be achieved by inviting multidisciplinary input from a range of stakeholders for the development of evidence-based critical evaluations of existing arguments and the development of novel arguments, including the outstanding rebuttals. (shrink)

Throughout the developing world, it is a well-documented fact that women farmers tend to get lower yields than their male counterparts. Typically this is attributed to disproportionate access to high-quality inputs and labor, with some even arguing there could be a skills-gap stemming from unbalanced access to training and education. This article examines the gender-based yield gap in the context of Zambian maize producers. In addition to the usual drivers, we argue that Zambia’s patriarchal and multi-tiered land distribution system could (...) disfavor women with respect to accessing quality soils. We are uniquely able to control for soil characteristics using farm data from a sample of 1573 fields with accompanying soil analysis. We find an expected difference in yields, but no evidence of a gap in unobserved characteristics, like skill, after controlling for access to inputs, especially quality soil, suggesting women are indeed disproportionately disadvantaged. We discuss how our findings could be used to develop self-targeting policy interventions that could empower women and would be consistent with the government’s stated equity goals. (shrink)

Companies’ earnings are arguably their most important financial disclosure, and corporate tactics to manage earnings can be directly constrained by audit procedures. In this article, we examine whether there is a link between companies’ earnings performance and changes in the accounting firm they choose to audit their financial statements. We find that when companies’ reported earnings just miss analysts’ expectations, they are more likely to change their auditor. Consistent with an opportunistic auditor switch, we also find that these companies have (...) lower levels of earnings quality after the change. Our results concentrate on companies with more incentive or ability to act opportunistically, including those with negative market reactions to earnings, higher levels of accruals flexibility, and weaker corporate governance. Our study advances research into the public’s interest by providing evidence of suspect auditor changes that increase auditors’ ethical conflict to maintain independence and objectivity. (shrink)

I first list what I consider to be the main virtues of Goldberg’s novel and challenging account of epistemic pressure in speech exchange. I then zoom in on proper doxastic responses to assertions in conversations and argue that they comprise four things: (1) one believes the position that is testified to rather than just seeking, ensuring, trying, or aiming to believe the testifier on that proposition; (2) one believes the testifier; in other words, one wrongs the speaker not only if (...) one disbelieves her but also when one simply fails to believe her; (3) one believes the relevant proposition rather than merely accepting, presuming, assuming, or displaying some positive propositional attitude that does not imply belief; (4) one believes the proposition in question to a sufficiently high degree. Finally, I explore how we should make sense of the epistemic partiality that friendship seems to come with. I argue that it is not merely that one seeks evidence in support of the assertion of one’s friend or an interpretation that affirms the testimony of one’s friend. It is also that one actually lowers the evidential bar for rationally or epistemically justifiedly believing their testimony. (shrink)

Most behavioral decision research takes place in carefully controlled laboratory settings, and examination of relationships between performance and specific real-world decision outcomes is rare. One prior study shows that people who perform better on hypothetical decision tasks, assessed using the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC) measure, also tend to experience better real-world decision outcomes, as reported on the Decision Outcomes Inventory (DOI). The DOI score reflects avoidance of outcomes that could result from poor decisions, ranging from serious (e.g., bankruptcy) to minor (...) (e.g., blisters from sunburn). The present analyses go beyond the initial work, which focused on the overall DOI score, by analyzing the relationships between specific decision outcomes and A-DMC performance. Most outcomes are significantly more likely among people with lower A-DMC scores, even after taking into account two variables expected to produce worse real-world decision outcomes: younger age and lower socio-economic status. We discuss the usefulness of DOI as a measure of successful real-world decision making. (shrink)

This study explored the relationship between both overall television viewing and romantic youth drama viewing, as well as of females’ concerns about boys’ attractiveness expectations on the one hand, and body image dissatisfaction on the other. Participants were 411 adolescent girls who completed self-report measures on body dissatisfaction, television viewing, and concerns about appearance expectations. Our results indicated that there was both a direct and indirect relationship between romantic youth drama viewing and body satisfaction. Girls who spent more time watching (...) romantic youth drama displayed lower levels of body satisfaction. In addition, romantic youth drama viewing had a significant positive impact on concerns about boys’ attractiveness expectations, which had an indirect effect on body satisfaction. (shrink)

Introduction: Placebo and nocebo effects are positive and negative health outcomes that can be elicited by the psychosocial context. They can be mediated by expectations, and may emerge in somatic symptoms even when people are aware of these effects. Interindividual differences could impact placebo and nocebo responding, but findings are inconsistent.Methods: The current work examined expectation as a mediator of the association between verbal placebo and nocebo suggestions and histamine-induced itch across three experimental studies. Moreover, we examined whether interindividual (...) differences, body ignorance) modulated: the direct association between VSs and itch, and the indirect, expectation-mediated association between VSs and itch. Positive VSs were compared to neutral instructions or negative VSs in an open-label or closed-label context using PROCESS. First, mediation of VSs effects on itch by expectations was tested. Next, moderation by individual traits was explored using conditional process analyses.Results: The effects of VSs on itch were significantly mediated by expectation in Study 1 and in the open-label contexts of Studies 2 and 3. Ignorance of bodily signals marginally moderated the direct effects of VSs on itch when closed-label suggestions were given: at low levels of body ignorance, effects of positive and negative VSs were stronger. Moreover, moderated mediation was observed in the open-label groups of Studies 2 and 3: The expectation-mediated effects of VSs on itch were stronger when BAS drive was lower.Conclusion: Overall, the effects of VSs on itch were mediated by expectations in the open-label, but not the closed-label context. Moreover, the current work suggests that placebo and nocebo effects may be moderated by ignorance of bodily signals and the BAS. There was limited evidence that other interindividual differences modulated placebo and nocebo responding in itch. (shrink)

With postmodern societies placing a strong emphasis on making full use of one’s time, it is increasingly common to extol busy individuals as more achieving. In this context, although feeling a social expectation to be busy might imply that individuals are regarded as competent and desirable, its accompanying stressors may also detrimentally impact their mental health. Utilising data from a seven-day diary study, the current research examined the relationship between people’s daily perceived pressure to be busy and their daily (...) emotional wellbeing. Multilevel modelling revealed that daily social pressure to be busy was a significant predictor of daily negative affect, anxiety, and depressive symptoms at the within-person level. Of import, individuals’ trait emotional complexity acceptance moderated these relationships, with those lower on emotional complexity acceptance reporting significantly higher negative affect, anxiety, and depressive symptoms on days they felt greater social pressure to be busy. These effects were not observed among those higher on emotional complexity acceptance. Together, the current findings suggest that social pressure to feel busy is generally related to poorer daily emotional wellbeing, and that those with higher trait emotional complexity acceptance have an advantage of maintaining their emotional wellbeing in the face of such a social pressure. (shrink)

In infancy, maternal socioeconomic status is associated with real-time language processing skills, but whether or not this relationship carries into adulthood is unknown. We explored the effects of maternal SES in college-aged adults on eye-tracked, spoken sentence comprehension tasks using the visual world paradigm. When sentences ended in highly plausible, expected target nouns, higher SES was associated with a greater likelihood of considering alternative endings related to the action of the sentence. Moreover, for unexpected sentence endings, individuals from higher SES (...) backgrounds were sensitive to whether the ending was action-related or unrelated, showing a benefit for plausible endings. Individuals from lower SES backgrounds did not show this advantage. This suggests maternal SES can influence the dynamics of sentence processing even in adulthood, with consequences for processing unexpected content. These findings highlight the importance of early lexical experience for adult language skills. (shrink)

Clinical practice is a part of the integral learning method in nursing education. The use of information and communication technologies (ICT) in clinical learning is highly encouraged among nursing students to support evidence-based nursing and student-centered learning. Through the information-processing lens of the mindsponge theory, this study views performance expectancy (or perceived usefulness) and effort expectancy (or perceived ease of use) as results of subjective benefit and cost judgments determining the students’ ICT using intention for supporting clinical learning, respectively. Therefore, (...) the study examines whether effort expectancy moderates the relationship between performance expectancy and the intention to use ICT among Moroccan nursing students. The Bayesian Mindsponge Framework (BMF) analytics was employed on a dataset of 702 Moroccan nursing students. We found that nursing students’ performance expectancy is positively associated with the intention to adopt ICT and social media, while effort expectancy positively moderates this relationship. Moreover, the model with effort expectancy as the moderator was discovered to have a significantly larger weight than the model with effort expectancy as the direct predictor, validating our information-processing reasoning. This study provides a new perspective on the interplay between the benefit and cost perceptions of ICT use to support clinical learning methods in nursing education. Moreover, given the limited education resources, especially in developing countries like Morocco, we recommend nursing education and training prioritize communicating the benefits of ICTs and social media over ease of use. Doing so would help improve the effectiveness and efficiency of nursing education and training while lowering costs. (shrink)

This study examined the extent to which individual differences in time perspective, i.e., habitual way of relating to the personal past, present, and future, are associated with sleep quality and daytime sleepiness in a sample of older adults. The participants ( N = 437, 60–90 years) completed the Karolinska Sleep Questionnaire (KSQ), a the Swedish version of the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory (S-ZTPI), and two ratings of subjective well-being (SWB) (life satisfaction, happiness). Based on established relationships between dimension of time (...) perspective and other variables (e.g., depression) and relations between negative retrospection (rumination) and negative prospection (worry) in prior studies, we expected higher scores on Past Negative and Future Negative to be linked to poor sleep quality and (indirectly) increased daytime sleepiness. Moreover, we examined the possibility that variations in perceived sleep and sleepiness during the day mediates the expected association between an aggregate measure of deviations from a so called balanced time perspective (DBTP) and SWB. In regression analyses controlling for demographic factors (age, sex, and work status), higher scores on Past Negative and Future Negative predicted poorer sleep quality and higher levels of daytime sleepiness. Additionally, most of the association between time perspective and daytime sleepiness was accounted for by individual differences in sleep quality. Finally, structural equation modeling yielded results consistent with the hypothesis that variations in sleep mediate part of the negative relationship between DBTP and SWB. Given that good sleep is essential to multiple aspects of health, future studies evaluating relationships between time perspective and adverse health outcomes should consider sleep quality as a potentially contributing factor. (shrink)

It has been well established that life satisfaction is related to perceived social justice. However, current theories provide contrary assumptions on the direction of the influence. In this research, we use data from two longitudinal surveys collected in China to test the reciprocal relations between life satisfaction and perceived social justice over time. With a random intercept cross-lagged panel model, we disaggregate the between-person effect and the within-person effect of the relationship. To specify the conditions of the effect, we consider (...) income levels as the moderator. Study 1 showed that on the between-person level, life satisfaction, and perceived social justice are positively correlated. On the within-person level, cross-lagged effect results showed that an individuals’ deviations from their expected score in life satisfaction predict deviations from their expected perceived social justice at the next time point, while deviations from expected perceived social justice does not predict subsequent deviations from expected life satisfaction. In study 2, we divided participants into three groups based on their household income and conducted a multiple group analysis to test its moderation effect. We found that the between-person correlation of life satisfaction and perceived social justice is not moderated by income level, and it is significant in all the three groups. However, the within-person cross-lagged effect is moderated by income level, and the effect of life satisfaction on perceived social justice only exists in the low income group. This research confirms the unidirectional relationship between life satisfaction and perceived social justice across time, and clarifies the effect in different levels and income groups, providing new insights on the formation of justice perception. It is recommended that future studies apply experimental designs to reach causal effects and explore more possible moderators and mediators. (shrink)

Differences in family factors in determining academic achievement were investigated by testing 432 parents in nine independent, coeducational Melbourne schools. Schools were ranked and categorized into three groups , based on student achievement scores in their final year of secondary school and school improvement indexes. Parents completed a questionnaire investigating their attitudes towards the school environment, their aspirations, expectations, encouragement and interest in their child’s education . They also responded to six open‐ended questions on their attitudes to achievement and to (...) their school. Multiple regression analyses revealed that parental expectations of their children’s educational level made the strongest unique prediction of high achievement followed by the length of time they had maintained their expectations. Limitations discussed include the disparity in meaning associated with the definition of school success and whether these results can be generalized to all students considering the biased sample. (shrink)

By means of minimal assumptions on the individual preferences, I show that the Willingness To Pay (WTP) for both a FSD and SSD reduction of risk is the sum of a mean effect, a pure risk effect and a wealth effect. As a result, the WTP of a risk-averse decision maker may be lower than the WTP of a risk-neutral one, for a large class of individual preferences’ representation and a large class of risks.

Brazilian and US American children were compared for differences in tolerance and punishment expectancy. We hypothesized that participants would be less tolerant and more punishing of moral than conventional violations; tolerance and punishment expectancy would relate with age; Brazilians would tolerate less and expect more punishment than US Americans; and social domain would moderate effects of age and nationality. The sample had 129 matched children from Brazil and the USA. Moral/conventional-violation vignettes were used. Mixed-model GLMs suggested that children were less (...) tolerant and more punishing of moral than social-conventional violations. Age effects were significant for tolerance. Brazilians scored lower on tolerance and higher on punishment expectancy than US Americans; they also differentiated less between violation domains than US Americans. These and other results suggest that Brazilians tolerate less but expect more punishment for violations than US Americans. Discussion is based on cultural and socio-historical differences between the two nations. (shrink)

Time is a fundamental dimension of consciousness. Many studies of the “sense of agency” have investigated whether we attribute actions to ourselves based on a conscious experience of intention occurring prior to action, or based on a reconstruction after the action itself has occurred. Here, we ask the same question about a lower level aspect of action experience, namely awareness of the detailed spatial form of a simple movement. Subjects reached for a target, which unpredictably jumped to the side on (...) some trials. Participants expressed their expectancy of a target shift during the upcoming movement, pointed at the target as quickly and accurately as possible before returning to the start posiment to the target shift if required and reproduced the spatial path of the movement they had just made, as accurately as possible, to give an indication of their awareness of the pointing movement. We analysed the spatial disparity between the initial and the reproduced movements on those with a target shift. A negative disparity value, or undershoot, suggests that motor awareness merely reflects a sluggish record of coordinated motor performance, while a positive value, or overshoot, suggests that participants’ intention to point to the shifting target contributes more to their awareness of action than their actual pointing movement. Undershoot and overshoot thus measure the reconstructive and the preconstuctive aspects of action awareness, respectively. We found that trials on which subjects strongly expected a target shift showed greater overshoot and less undershoot than trials with lower expectancy. Conscious expectancy therefore strongly influences the experience of the detailed motor parameters of our actions. Further, a delay inserted either between the expectancy judgement and the pointing movement, or between the pointing movement and the reproduction of the movement, had no effect on visuomotor adjustment but strongly influenced action awareness. Delays during either interval boosted undershoots, suggesting increased reliance on a time-limited sensory memory for action. The experience of action is thus strongly influenced by prior thoughts and expectations, but only over a short time period. Thus, awareness of our actions is a dynamic and relatively flexible mixture of what we intend to do, and what our motor system actually does. (shrink)

This is the first of two papers that use off-training set (OTS) error to investigate the assumption-free relationship between learning algorithms. This first paper discusses the senses in which there are no a priori distinctions between learning algorithms. (The second paper discusses the senses in which there are such distinctions.) In this first paper it is shown, loosely speaking, that for any two algorithms A and B, there are “as many” targets (or priors over targets) for which A has lower (...) expected OTS error than B as vice versa, for loss functions like zero-one loss. In particular, this is true if A is cross-validation and B is “anti-cross-validation” (choose the learning algorithm with largest cross-validation error). This paper ends with a discussion of the implications of these results for computational learning theory. It is shown that one cannot say: if empirical misclassification rate is low, the Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension of your generalizer is small, and the training set is large, then with high probability your OTS error is small. Other implications for “membership queries” algorithms and “punting” algorithms are also discussed. (shrink)

To address the current lack of knowledge about clinical ethics fellowship programs (CEFPs), we surveyed all 36 programs in the U.S. and Canada. The number of CEFPs has grown exponentially over the last 40 years and far exceeds previous estimates. Commonalities among CEFPs include: 88.8% require an advanced degree or rarely accept applicants without one; 91.7% of programs do not restrict applicants to a specific background such as medicine or philosophy; and 88.9% of programs compensate fellows. CEFPs vary widely on (...) numbers of fellows trained in the last 3 years (1–111), numbers of consultations performed by each fellow (0–450), and salaries paid ($0-$95,000). Less than half of programs meet CEFP standards established by ABPD. Nonpaying programs and larger programs tend to have lower admission standards and lower expectations for fellows. We hope these data will help inform CEFP standards that promote quality and consistency without stifling desirable diversity and innovation. (shrink)

In the standard volunteer’s dilemma (VoD), a single prosocial act (i.e., volunteering) yields the optimal overall outcome. Whereas the volunteer’s outcome is certain, the defector’s outcome depends on what others do. This research addressed the confounding of prosocial responses with uncertainty avoidance in the standard VoD. In Experiment 1, participants (N = 102) considered 18 hypothetical one-shot two-person VoD scenarios with certain, risky, and uncertain outcomes when volunteering. In Experiment 2, participants (N = 496) considered three hypothetical one-shot two-person VoD (...) scenarios; a certain VoD and two uncertain VoDs of which one had a lower expected collective outcome of volunteering than the certain VoD and the other a higher one. Results suggest that volunteering does not reflect a desire to avoid uncertainty but to maximize expected collective outcomes, reinforcing the assumption that the high volunteering rates we see in a standard VoD are due to social/moral preferences and social projection. (shrink)

Choice often proceeds in two stages: We construct a shortlist on the basis of limited and uncertain information about the options and then reduce this uncertainty by examining the shortlist in greater detail. The goal is to do well when making a final choice from the option set. I argue that we cannot realise this goal by constructing a ranking over the options at shortlisting stage which determines of each option whether it is more or less worthy of being included (...) in a shortlist. This is relevant to the 2010 UK Equality Act. The Act requires that shortlists be constructed on grounds of candidate rankings and affirmative action is only permissible for equally qualified candidates. This is misguided: Shortlisting candidates with lower expected qualifications but higher variance may raise the chance of finding an exceptionally strong candidate. If it does, then shortlisting such candidates would make eminent business sense and there is nothing unfair about it. This observation opens up room for including more underrepresented candidates with protected characteristics, as they are more likely to display greater variance in the selector’s credence functions at shortlisting stage. (shrink)

Starting out from the basic post-modern insight that there is no text apart from interpretation, Ronald Dworkin seeks to salvage traditional jurisprudence by relocating the skeptical question of legitimacy. Utilizing this same insight, Critical Legal Studies seeks to undermine traditional jurisprudence and inspire radical social reform. Yet both fail to live up to their own expectations. "Hard" cases are still hard, and liberal legalism still reigns. So what went wrong? In this dissertation, I contend that the quixotic quests of Dworkin (...) and CLS ultimately stem from a reluctance to follow through on the basic post-modern insight. Exaggerated expectations are the result of a lingering faith in the modernist project. As an alternative to Dworkin's "integrity" and CLS's "ideology," I defend Richard Rorty's vision of pragmatic liberalism which explicitly disavows foundations and incorporates lowered expectations concerning the role of theory in bringing about social change. (shrink)

The early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic exposed large portions of the global populations to increased daily stressors. Research on risky choice in medical contexts suggests that affect-rich choice options promote less-advantageous decision strategies compared with affect-poor options, causing an “affect gap” in decision making. The current experiments (total N = 437, age range: 21–82) sought to test whether negative pandemic-related affect would lower expected-value (EV) maximisation within individuals. In Experiment 1, participants indicated how much they would be willing to (...) pay to avoid specific pandemic experiences (e.g. “not being able to gather in groups”), and then chose among pairs of risky prospects that involved pandemic experiences or subjectively-equivalent monetary losses. EV maximising was lower for pandemic experiences than for equivalent monetary losses. Experiment 2 replicated this finding, and further demonstrated a moderating role of decision perspective. EV maximising was greater in decisions made for another person than in decisions made for oneself. These findings highlight potential strategies for boosting decision making under affect-rich real-world conditions. (shrink)

This paper asks whether workers’ experience of working with new technologies and workers’ perceived threats of new technologies are associated with expected well-being. Using survey data for 25 OECD countries we find that both experiences of new technologies and threats of new technologies are associated with more concern about expected well-being. Controlling for the negative experiences of COVID-19 on workers and their macroeconomic outlook both mitigate these findings, but workers with negative experiences of working alongside and with new technologies still (...) report lower expected well-being. (shrink)

Pre-college philosophy has proliferated greatly over the last few decades, including in the form of ‘philosophy across the curriculum’. However, there has been very little sustained examination of the nature of philosophy as a subject relative to other standard pre-college subjects and the kinds of expertise an effective philosophy teacher at this level should possess. At face value, the minimal academic preparation expected for competence in secondary philosophy instruction, compared to the high standards for teaching other subjects, raises questions and (...) concerns. In this paper I make some provisional observations about the subject of philosophy and how it is taught from p4c through to the post-secondary level. I begin by examining the concept of ‘philosophy across the curriculum’ and offer a working analysis of the main features of philosophy's form and content that enable us to determine its relevance to, and difference from, other subjects. Next, I examine and critique what I term the ‘populist’ conception of philosophy, which correlates to lower expectations of teacher training, and use my own experience of teaching philosophy across the curriculum to shed doubt on the viability of this approach. In the third section I consider what I term the ‘autonomous’ conception of philosophy, which correlates to more stringent expectations of teacher capacity, and explain why it is preferable to the populist conception with some qualifications. I conclude by reflecting on how philosophy compares to other subjects that are advanced cross-curricularly and argue for more training of high school philosophy teachers. (shrink)

Purpose: To analyze how individual characteristics and the social context are associated with mental distress symptoms in the Brazilian population.Method: A multilevel cross-sectional study with data from the 2013 National Health Survey. There were two dependent variables: decreased vital energy and somatic symptoms, the presence of depressive thoughts. The independent variables were biological characteristics, education and income, habits and lifestyle, and context variables. Bivariate analysis was performed, and Prevalence Ratios calculated in a Poisson Regression. A multilevel Poisson Regression was performed (...) to verify the effect of individual and contextual variables.Results: Regarding depressive thoughts, young and middle-aged individuals, low education, women, absence of partner, smokers or former smokers, and absence of health insurance were the categories at highest risk; belonging to classes D-E and living in states with lower expected years of schooling proved to be protective factors. Similar results were found for the second outcome.Conclusions: Symptoms of mental distress were associated with the individual characteristics and contextual aspects of the federation unit. These findings indicate the importance of strengthening psychosocial care aimed at vulnerable groups. (shrink)

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to present implications of the seller's ability to bid in the four classical auction forms, with independent private values: English, Dutch, first‐ and second‐price auctions.Design/methodology/approachUnder each auction form, the identity of the winning bidder and the expected winning bid are compared between the case when the seller may bid and when he cannot, using equilibrium bidder strategies. The seller's incentive to bid is evaluated.FindingsThe strategies and the welfare results differ with auction type and underlying (...) information assumptions – bidders are either aware or unaware of the seller's ability to bid. In the Dutch and the first‐price auctions, seller‐bidding does not affect any classical results. In the English and the second‐price auctions, it leads to no lower expected prices than without it and higher prices with positive probability. In the English and the second‐price auctions, the seller bids above his reservation value and may unintentionally win the auction. These auctions result in inefficiency with positive probability.Practical implicationsThe English and the second‐price auctions are the most common real‐world auctions. In these auctions, the seller's ability to bid – secretly or publicly – redistributes welfare among participants and introduces a possibility of inefficiency. Making this ability publicly known does not solve the latter problem. Auctioneers must prevent the seller from bidding, or must select a different auction form when seller‐bidding is anticipated.Originality/valueThe paper clarifies to regulators, auction designers, bidders, and other readers which auction forms are susceptible to subversion by seller‐bidding and what the potential damages are. (shrink)

Policy-makers must sometimes choose between an alternative which has somewhat lower expected value for each person, but which will substantially improve the outcomes of the worst off, or an alternative which has somewhat higher expected value for each person, but which will leave those who end up worst off substantially less well off. The popular ex ante Pareto principle requires the choice of the alternative with higher expected utility for each. We argue that ex ante Pareto ought to be rejected (...) because it conflicts with the requirement that, when possible, one ought to decide as one would with full information. We apply our argument in an analysis of US policy on screening for breast cancer. -/- . (shrink)

The context in which the British Medical Association first considered publishing specific guidelines on decisions about attempting cardiopulmonary resuscitation , in the early 1990s, needs to be remembered. At that time the subject was often seen as far too sensitive to be mentioned to patients. Many hospitals had no formal policy about how CPR decisions should be made, apart from an expectation that these were purely medical matters. Advance decision making about CPR, where it existed, appears to have been (...) generally on an ad hoc basis by doctors. Patients, their relatives and the rest of the health care team were often unaware of it. After several cases in which nurses had been disciplined–unfairly in the eyes of some–for complying with their patients' known wishes about non-resuscitation in cases where no advance medical decision had been recorded, there was a demand for guidance.The BMA was approached by nurses' representatives with a view to publishing some very basic advice. This advice, issued in 1993 jointly with the Royal College of Nursing, and in association with the Resuscitation Council, was under 1000 words. Whether this brevity reflects difficulties in achieving consensus or lower expectations about what was required is a matter for speculation. Throughout the 1990s the guidance was distributed widely and used as a basis for many hospitals' local policies. Recently, however, the demands on the BMA and other professional bodies for ethical advice have changed and grown. Discussion of sensitive decisions about potentially life-prolonging interventions is now …. (shrink)

Abstract: Longtermist Effective Altruists (EAs) aim to mitigate the risk of existential catastrophes. In this paper, I have three goals. First, I identify a catastrophic risk that EAs have completely ignored. I call it religious catastrophe: the threat that (as Christians and Muslims have warned for centuries) billions of people stand in danger of going to hell for all eternity. Second, I argue that, even by secular EA lights, religious catastrophe is at least as bad and at least as probable (...) and, therefore, at least as important as many of the standard EA catastrophic risks (e.g., catastrophic climate change, nuclear winter). Third, I present the following dilemma for secular EAs: either adopt religious catastrophe as an EA cause or ignore religious catastrophe but also ignore catastrophic risks whose mitigation has a similar or lower expected value (i.e., most or all of them). Business as usual—ignoring religious catastrophe while championing the typical EA causes—is not an option consistent with longtermist EA principles. (shrink)

Trainees with disabilities in health-related professions are often subjected to structural ableism in medicine: the discriminatory manifestation of lowered expectations towards people with disabilities by medical professionals. In this case study, I reflect on my experiences as the first individual with significant disabilities to be offered a postdoctoral fellowship in clinical bioethics at the National Institutes of Health. I focus on the following question: What arrangements need to be in place in order for someone with my level of disability (...) to thrive as a clinical bioethicist? By telling my story, I show how the process of accommodating trainees with disabilities often requires creative problem-solving and a considerable amount of institutional resources. I also describe the team-based method that my mentors and I developed to enable me to complete rotations on the NIH’s bioethics consultation service. If more trainees with disabilities are to succeed in clinical bioethics trainee programs, the field will have to grapple with how to develop an infrastructure for providing disability related support across training programs. This article is the beginning of a dialogue about how to build such an infrastructure. (shrink)

For (S, Σ) a measurable space, let ${\cal C}_1$ and ${\cal C}_2$ be convex, weak* closed sets of probability measures on Σ. We show that if ${\cal C}_1$ ∪ ${\cal C}_2$ satisfies the Lyapunov property , then there exists a set A ∈ Σ such that minμ1∈ ${\cal C}_1$ μ1(A) > maxμ2 ∈ ${\cal C}_2$ (A). We give applications to Maxmin Expected Utility (MEU) and to the core of a lower probability.

Expected utility maximization problem is one of the most useful tools in mathematical finance, decision analysis and economics. Motivated by statistical model selection, via the principle of expected utility maximization, Friedman and Sandow (J Mach Learn Res 4:257–291, 2003a) considered the model performance question from the point of view of an investor who evaluates models based on the performance of the optimal strategies that the models suggest. They interpreted their performance measures in information theoretic terms and provided new generalizations of (...) Shannon entropy and Kullback–Leibler relative entropy and called them U-entropy and U-relative entropy. In this article, a utility-based criterion for independence of two random variables is defined. Then, Markov’s inequality for probabilities is extended from the U-entropy viewpoint. Moreover, a lower bound for the U-relative entropy is obtained. Finally, a link between conditional U-entropy and conditional Renyi entropy is derived. (shrink)

A growing body of empirical evidence suggests the existence of a Paradox of Choice, whereby a larger choice set leads to a lower expected payoff to the decisionmaker. These empirical findings contradict traditional choice-theoretic results in microeconomics and even social psychology, suggesting profound yet unexplained aspects of choice settings/behavior. The Paradox remains largely as a theoretically-rootless empirical phenomenon. We neither understand the mechanisms and conditions that generate it, nor whether the Paradox stems from choice behavior, choice setting, or both. We (...) present a general search model of consumer choice under incomplete information to examine the theoretical existence and conditions for the Paradox. The model departs from traditional microeconomic choice theory in assuming no “cognitive free lunches.” Search and evaluative efforts require time, focus, and opportunity cost in the model, as in real life. The model shows that conditions for Paradox readily exist, diminishing returns to potential value of the choice in choice set size is a necessary condition for a Paradox outcome, that a Paradox outcome can occur with or without a “choice overload” response by the decisionmaker, and that avoidance of a Paradox outcome is an impossibility in some choice settings (primitive to setting regardless of choice behavior). Lastly, we develop a pareto-improving choice set reduction algorithm that eliminates weakly dominated choice set elements and presents the restricted choice set to the decisionmaker. As such, it is shown that the algorithm acts to treat or mitigate the Paradox of Choice, as well as to pareto-improve choice-supporting evaluation more generally. Like established AI recommender systems, the novel algorithm filters choices. In the present case, the filtering is based upon identification of weakly dominated choice set elements. (shrink)