Complex systems are used, studied and instantiated in science, with what con-sequences? To be clear and systematic in response it is necessary to distin-guish the consequences, for science, of science using and studying complex systems, for philosophy of science, of science using and studying complex systems, for philosophy of science, of philosophy of science modelling sci-ence as a complex system. Each of these is explored in turn, especially. While has been least studied, it will be shown how modelling science as (...) a complex process may change our conception of science and thereby query what a philosophy of science adequate to this complexity might look like. (shrink)

During the last decade, scholars have identified a number of factors that pose significant challenges to effective business ethics education. This article offers a “coping-modeling, problem-solving” approach as one option for addressing these concerns. A rationale supporting the use of the CMPS framework for courses on ethical decision-making in business is provided, following which the implementation processes for this program are described. Evaluative data collected from N = 101 undergraduate business students enrolled in a third year required course (...) on ethical decision-making in business indicated that the CMPS model is a promising alternative for both overcoming teaching challenges and for facilitating skill acquisition in the areas of ethical recognition, judgment, and action. Limitations and directions for future research are discussed. (shrink)

Created during a certain time period of the world’s art development, fictional history embodies not only a set of individual authorial creative acts, but it is the only "artistic-historical model" conditioned by a number of objective aesthetic and non-aesthetic factors. As such, fictional history represents an integral part of the national worldview. Its exploration requires a combinatorial unity of methods. The article proposes a set of modern methodological principles for studying the processes of artistic modelling of history in the aesthetic (...) consciousness on the synchronous level and their representation in literary works. The methods of academic literary criticism are combined with the advanced methods of modern interdisciplinary humanities that are based on postmodern philosophy. Thus, in the chosen combination of the scientific approaches, the heuristic potential of the structural-semiotic and structural-typological methods, mythopoetics and myth-restoration, imagology, hermeneutics, and receptive aesthetics, correlates with the methods of systematic and descriptive analysis. Such diverse theoretical combinations, the existence of a kind of "methodological sinusoid" within the study, do not contradict but complement each other. (shrink)

Linguistic Modelling of Scenarios proposes a paradigm change from the 'systemic VIEW' to 'systems SCIENCE', so as to extend the methodology of conventional science of physics into the domains hitherto beyond the reach of this kind of treatment. The book: I. Identifies the problematic issues in current approaches to the 'systemic or structural view' of parts of the world as opposed to the 'quantitative/qualitative views' of conventional science of physics and the arts whereby introducing the 'third culture'. II. Locates the (...) position of the structural view in the context of 'human intellectual endeavour'. III. Discusses the fundamental questions raised by modelling aspects of human behaviour. IV. Introduces the basic ideas and the symbolism of linguistic modelling which are then applied to turning descriptions of scenarios as a story or narrative into reasoning schemes. V. Describes a methodology of 'problem solving' of which design thinking and the operation of purposive systems are seen as essential ingredients. Problem solving is a universal activity of living in particular human beings through innovation, invention and creativity. Lack of this activity leads to death! Problem solving is regarded as pivotal point which may propel the spread of the modified structural view into social, technical, cultural and educational awareness. VI. Shows the location of aspects of conventional science within the scheme of systems science whereby achieving a 'continuity of the scientific endeavour'. VII. Outlines a teaching scheme for 'linguistic modelling'. Janos Korn explains how a view can be converted into a science which can lead to a possibility of 'organised speculation' or simulation of behaviour, exploring the effects of variation of parameters on performance, and the occurrence of outcomes of operations, beneficial or not, of dynamic structures. Static and dynamic structures are expressed in more rigorous and computable terms so that the results of analysis and design of human activity scenarios could be exposed to at least thought experiments. Linguistic Modelling of Scenarios is an informative read for any professionals, teachers and students of engineering, social science, management, business and production. (shrink)

In what follows I propose to bring out certain methodological properties of projects of modelling the tacit realm that bear on the kinds of modelling done in connection with scientific cognition by computer as well as by ethnomethodological sociologists, both of whom must make some claims about the tacit in the course of their efforts to model cognition. The same issues, I will suggest, bear on the project of a cognitive psychology of science as well.

In 1949, Richard Feynman published the essentials of his solution to the recalcitrant problems that plagued quantum theories of electrodynamics of his days. The main problem was that the theory, that was considered to be correct and often led to correct observable consequences, also implied that some quantities should be infinite, while by common sense or empirical evidence they were finite. Feynman devised a method of solving the relevant theoretical equations in which particular combinations of elementary solutions yielded empirically (...) adequate results even when applied to complex problems. The combination of the basic solutions was guided by relatively simple graphical considerations... (shrink)

The present paper will summarise the methodology, the scientific outcomes, and the potential for generalisation of the model of a project that studied cohabitation between human inhabitants and liminal species (in the present case, corvids) in Tartu, Estonia, from October 2021 to July 2023, with a comparative field study in Paris, France. It will present the context and goals of using a semiotic model to map interspecific cohabitation, expose what kind of data can be used to feed the model in (...) a relevant way and how it was done in the case of this project. This paper will present how the model diagnosed issues in cohabitation, both from material nuisances and cultural aspects, insisting on the concept of “hostile minority” that emerged from the study. It will discuss the importance of problem-solving in interspecific cohabitation, what the model suggested regarding this aspect, how this tool can be generalised to a large variety of cases and why it should be used this way. (shrink)

This book is a treatise on time and on background independence in physics. It first considers how time is conceived of in each accepted paradigm of physics: Newtonian, special relativity, quantum mechanics (QM) and general relativity (GR). Substantial differences are moreover uncovered between what is meant by time in QM and in GR. These differences jointly source the Problem of Time: Nine interlinked facets which arise upon attempting concurrent treatment of the QM and GR paradigms, as is required in (...) particular for a background independent theory of quantum gravity. A sizeable proportion of current quantum gravity programs - e.g. geometrodynamical and loop quantum gravity approaches to quantum GR, quantum cosmology, supergravity and M-theory - are background independent in this sense. This book's foundational topic is thus furthermore of practical relevance in the ongoing development of quantum gravity programs. This book shows moreover that eight of the nine facets of the Problem of Time already occur upon entertaining background independence in classical (rather than quantum) physics. By this development, and interpreting shape theory as modelling background independence, this book further establishes background independence as a field of study. Background independent mechanics, as well as minisuperspace (spatially homogeneous) models of GR and perturbations thereabout are used to illustrate these points. As hitherto formulated, the different facets of the Problem of Time greatly interfere with each others' attempted resolutions. This book explains how, none the less, a local resolution of the Problem of Time can be arrived at after various reconceptualizations of the facets and reformulations of their mathematical implementation. Self-contained appendices on mathematical methods for basic and foundational quantum gravity are included. Finally, this book outlines how supergravity is refreshingly different from GR as a realization of background independence, and what background independence entails at the topological level and beyond. (shrink)

Mechanistic philosophy of science views a large part of scientific activity as engaged in modelling mechanisms. While science textbooks tend to offer qualitative models of mechanisms, there is increasing demand for models from which one can draw quantitative predictions and explanations. Casini et al. (Theoria 26(1):5–33, 2011) put forward the Recursive Bayesian Networks (RBN) formalism as well suited to this end. The RBN formalism is an extension of the standard Bayesian net formalism, an extension that allows for modelling the hierarchical (...) nature of mechanisms. Like the standard Bayesian net formalism, it models causal relationships using directed acyclic graphs. Given this appeal to acyclicity, causal cycles pose a prima facie problem for the RBN approach. This paper argues that the problem is a significant one given the ubiquity of causal cycles in mechanisms, but that the problem can be solved by combining two sorts of solution strategy in a judicious way. (shrink)

In this article we describe research methods that are used for the study of individual multiattribute evaluation processes. First we explain that a multiattribute evaluation problem involves the evaluation of a set of alternatives, described by their values on a number of alternatives. We discuss a number of evaluation strategies that may be applied to arrive at a conclusion about the attractiveness or suitability of the alternatives, and next introduce two main research paradigms in this area, structural modelling and (...) process tracing. We argue that the techniques developed within these paradigms all have their advantages and disadvantages, and conclude that the most promising technique to detect the true nature of the evaluation strategy used by a judge seems to be the analysis of verbal protocols. At the same time we think it is wise not to rely on just one technique, but to use a multimethod approach to the study of multiattribute evaluation processes whenever that is possible. (shrink)

This paper challenges the conventional methodological tendencies of current monistic treatments of subjective consciousness (SC). I argue that it is highly unlikely that any one position will ‘solve’ the SC problem, as monism supposes. Instead, I argue for treating theories of SC akin to scientific models, that (like models) theories only apply under certain empirical conditions, where each simply explains a necessary aspect of SC. Hence, a pluralistic, rather than monistic, approach is preferable to the literature as a whole. (...) In lieu of conventional metaphysics, I advocate applying a form of scientific realism to models of SC, scientific perspectivism. As authors must rely on some intuitive and/or experiential description of what is problematic about SC, theories are better treated as models deriving from a plurality of interpretive perspectives. (shrink)

This paper constructs a model of metaphysical indeterminacy that can accommodate a kind of ‘deep’ worldly indeterminacy that arguably arises in quantum mechanics via the Kochen-Specker theorem, and that is incompatible with prominent theories of metaphysical indeterminacy such as that in Barnes and Williams (2011). We construct a variant of Barnes and Williams's theory that avoids this problem. Our version builds on situation semantics and uses incomplete, local situations rather than possible worlds to build a model. We evaluate the (...) resulting theory and contrast it with similar alternatives, concluding that our model successfully captures deep indeterminacy. (shrink)

The issue on the role of users in knowledge-based systems can be investigated from two aspects: the design aspect and the functionality aspect. Participatory design is an important approach for the first aspect while system adaptability supported by user modelling is crucial to the second aspect. In the article, we discuss the second aspect. We view a knowledge-based computer system as the partner of users' problem-solving process, and we argue that the system functionality can be enhanced by adapting the (...) behaviour of the system to fit the needs of users with different profiles. We emphasise that the notion of user modelling is crucial to realise such kind of flexibility. User modelling will be beneficial to the user, not only through adaptive interfaces, but also through the enhanced system adaptability. In a knowledge-based system, by incorporating user models, searching can be reduced to a smaller portion in the knowledge-base, thus enhancing system functionality. In other words, user modelling is incorporated to realise flexible inference control to achieve system adaptability. An example is provided, and a general conceptual model is sketched. We conclude this paper by emphasising that the design aspect and functionality aspect are complementary. Achieving enhanced functionality through joint efforts of computers and human users indicates a kind of participatory execution of computerised problem-solving or participatory problem-solving. (shrink)

In adversarial problem solving (APS), one must anticipate, understand and counteract the actions of an opponent. Military strategy, business, and game playing all require an agent to construct a model of an opponent that includes the opponent's model of the agent. The cognitive mechanisms required for such modeling include deduction, analogy, inductive generalization, and the formation and evaluation of explanatory hypotheses. Explanatory coherence theory captures part of what is involved in APS, particularly in cases involving deception.

This paper aims to model multilevel interdependencies in complex organisational systems and proposes application for resilience analysis. Most of the existing research studied interdependencies only at the single-level and overlooked their multilevel character. In response to this gap, we propose a multilevel approach to better comprehend the complexity of interdependencies in organisational systems. More specifically, the study focuses on how interdependencies are shaped across multiple organisational levels. To understand the research problem, we use multilevel and social network theories to (...) elaborate the concept at five organisational levels, namely, individual, intraunit, interunit, intraorganisational, and interorganisational. Further, we show the application of multilevel interdependencies into analysis of organisational resilience. To this end, we construct a multiplex model of a real world organisational system that comprises formal and informal relations of different social exchange strength. Using the agent-based simulations of the organisational system, we investigate the relations between organisational interdependencies and organisational performance in normal and disrupted conditions. With the results, we argue that managing multilevel interdependencies is crucial to reduce vulnerability of organisational systems. By introducing the multilevel conceptualisation of interdependencies and presenting their influence on organisational resilience, we hope to pave a path to managing the complexity of interdependencies and strategic resilience enhancement in organisational systems. (shrink)

Evolution by natural selection explains the tree of life and the complex adaptations found throughout nature. The power and versatility of evolutionary explanations have proved tempting to scientists outside of biology, but adapting evolutionary concepts to new domains has been challenging. Even within biology, there are many difficult questions and problem cases that face evolutionary theory. Modelling Evolution offers a new, general account of evolution by natural selection that identifies the essential features of evolutionary models that transcend any particular (...) discipline. Evolution by natural selection in its broad sense is the systemic advantage of a type, in contrast to the narrow definition using heritable variation in fitness. This account is explained, contextualised and applied to a variety of questions in both biology and the social sciences. Offering an accessible and comprehensive account of evolution that is applicable both to biology and the broader social sciences, Modelling Evolution will appeal to students and researchers interested in fields such as biology, economics, sociology, history, and psychology. (shrink)

This essay deals with the fundamental problem in which the doctrine of providence, that is God’s acting in nature, history and individual life, is still stuck: the dilemma of theism or deism, God’s superiority or powerlessness. I introduce an eschatological perspective to find alternative approaches to power. I name six concrete modes of action, four of them drawn from different authors and theories such as Romano Guardini, Open Theism and Christian Link. Two more are developed out of the latter.

Conceptual models are descriptions of our ideas about a problem, used to shape the implementation of a solution to it. Everyone who builds complex information systems uses such models - be they requirements analysts, knowledge modellers or software designers - but understanding of the pragmatics of model design tends to be informal and parochial. Lightweight uses of logic can add precision without destroying the intuitions we use to interpret our descriptions. Computing with logic allows us to make use of (...) this precision in providing automated support tools. Modern information scientists need to know what these methods are for and may need to build their own. This book gives you a place to begin. Where do you start when building models in a precise language like logic? One way is by following standard paradigms for design and adapting these to your needs. Some of these come from an analysis of existing informal notations. Others are from within logic itself. We take you through a sample of these, from more commonplace styles of formal modelling to non-standard methods such as techniques editing and argumentation. Each of these provides a window onto broader areas of applied logic and gives you a basis for adapting the method to your own needs. (shrink)

In a multiagent and multi-cultural world, the fine-grained analysis of agents’ dynamic behaviour, i.e. of their activities, is essential. Dynamic activities are actions that are characterized by an agent who executes the action and by other participants of the action. Wh-questions on the participants of the actions pose a difficult particular challenge because the variability of the types of possible answers to such questions is huge. To deal with the problem, we propose the analysis and classification of Wh-questions apt (...) for agents’ communication in a multiagent system (MAS). Our proposal of such a system consists of agents who communicate with their fellow agents by messaging so that each autonomous agent, though resource-bounded, can make less or more rational decisions to meet its own and collective goals. In addition, by communicating with other fellow agents and their environment, agents can learn new concepts and enrich their ontology so that their behaviour is dynamic. We aim to make a general proposal of the system so that the ‘envelope’ of agents’ messages can be formalized in any MAS standard, be it The Foundation for Intelligent Physical Agents - Agent Communication Language (FIPA-ACL) or Knowledge Query and Manipulation Language (KQML). Yet, the content of messages is encoded in a formalized natural language. To this end, we apply Transparent Intensional Logic (TIL) with its procedural semantics which is particularly apt for a fine-grained analysis in which all the semantically salient features of natural language can be plausibly formalized. In this paper, we concentrate on analysing the content of query messages, particularly the content of those that encode Wh-questions and the answers to them. We also summarize TIL deduction system that makes it possible to answer such questions in an intelligent way. Linguists distinguish several subtypes of Wh-questions. Though the linguistic classification is helpful, it is not always suitable for agents’ communication and reasoning. We need the classification based on a logical analysis of Wh-questions so that the agents can infer possible answers to such questions rather than only looking for them by keywords. This paper aims to apply an appropriate classification of the logical types of Wh-questions and the analysis of such questions; we concentrate in particular on questions concerning the participants of activities. The application of these results to the analysis of processes and events based on verb valency frames is another novelty of the paper. (shrink)

Open peer commentary on the article “Examining the Role of Re-Presentation in Mathematical Problem Solving: An Application of Ernst von Glasersfeld’s Conceptual Analysis” by Victor V. Cifarelli & Volkan Sevim. Upshot: Problem solving is an enormous field of study, where so-called “problems” can end up having very little in common. One of the least studied categories of problems is open-ended mathematical modeling research. Cifarelli and Sevim’s framework - although not developed for this purpose - may be a (...) useful lens for studying the development of mathematical modelers and researchers in applied mathematics. (shrink)

Group decisions must often obey exogenous constraints. While in a preference aggregation problem constraints are modelled by restricting the set of feasible alternatives, this paper discusses the modelling of constraints when aggregating individual yes/no judgments on interconnected propositions. For example, court judgments in breach-of-contract cases should respect the constraint that action and obligation are necessary and sufficient for liability, and judgments on budget items should respect budgetary constraints. In this paper, we make constraints in judgment aggregation explicit by relativizing (...) the rationality conditions of consistency and deductive closure to a constraint set, whose variation yields more or less strong notions of rationality. This approach of modelling constraints explicitly contrasts with that of building constraints as axioms into the logic, which turns compliance with constraints into a matter of logical consistency and thereby conflates requirements of ordinary logical consistency (such as not to affirm both a proposition and its negation) and requirements dictated by the environment (such as budgetary constraints). We present some general impossibility results on constrained judgment aggregation; they are immediate corollaries of known results on (unconstrained) judgment aggregation. (shrink)

It is frequently assumed that dreaming can be likened to such waking cognitive activities as imagination, analogical reasoning, and creativity, and that these models can then be used to explain instances of problem solving during dreams. This paper emphasizes instead the lack of reflexivity and intentionality within dreams, which undermines their characterization as analogs of the waking world, and opposes claims that dreams can complement and aid waking world problem solving. The importance of reflexivity in imagination, in analogical (...) reasoning and in creativity means that dreaming, being usually single-minded, cannot be subsumed into these categories. Freud’s hypothesis that dreams result from the translation of latent thoughts into manifest content is taken to support this idea of cognitive deficiency during dreaming. Dream content, however, can still represent and reflect the dreamer’s waking concerns. (shrink)

Group decisions must often obey exogenous constraints. While in a preference aggregation problem constraints are modelled by restricting the set of feasible alternatives, this paper discusses the modelling of constraints when aggregating individual yes/no judgments on interconnected propositions. For example, court judgments in breach-of-contract cases should respect the constraint that action and obligation are necessary and sufficient for liability, and judgments on budget items should respect budgetary constraints. In this paper, we make constraints in judgment aggregation explicit by relativizing (...) the rationality conditions of consistency and deductive closure to a constraint set, whose variation yields more or less strong notions of rationality. This approach of modelling constraints explicitly contrasts with that of building constraints as axioms into the logic, which turns compliance with constraints into a matter of logical consistency and thereby conflates requirements of ordinary logical consistency (such as not to affirm both a proposition and its negation) and requirements dictated by the environment (such as budgetary constraints). We present some general impossibility results on constrained judgment aggregation; they are immediate corollaries of known results on (unconstrained) judgment aggregation. (shrink)

The constantly accelerating progress of contemporary natural science is indissolubly associated with the development and use of mathematics and with the processes of mathematical modeling of the phenomena of nature. The essence of this diverse and highly fertile interaction of mathematics and natural science and the dialectics of this interaction can only be disclosed through analysis of the nature of theoretical notions in general. Today, above all in the ranks of materialistically minded researchers, it is generally accepted that theory (...) possesses a value of its own. Contrary to positivist concepts of the nature of our knowledge, the meaning and significance of theory do not consist merely of the recording of experimental data, their classification and notation in abbreviated form. The meaning of theory is considerably more significant and is revealed, above all, in its explanatory and predictive functions. Contemporary theoretical knowledge is quite advanced and comprises a highly complex system, relatively self-contained and capable of internal development. Mathematics is the most interesting and distinctive phenomenon in the system of theoretical knowledge, in the system of science in general. It is in its dialectical development that the internal force and dynamics of the development of theory, in the very broadest sense of that word, find expression. Paul Lafargue tells us that Karl Marx held that "science only attains perfection when it succeeds in making use of mathematics" . In many fields of research the formulation of new ideas and concepts rests upon mathematics, its concepts and notions, and "is suggested" by the latter. "Mathematics," writes F. Dyson, "is the main source of the notions and principles out of which new theories are created" . The basic significance of mathematics to theory has been noted by outstanding thinkers over the course of the entire history of development of science. Today the expressive phrase, "the mathematization of knowledge," has come into general currency as a description of the principal direction of growth of theoretical notions in natural science. However, with respect to the growth of modern theoretical physics in general, the statement that it develops primarily by the method of the mathematical hypothesis has general validity. For example, the principal findings and discoveries of quantum theory and particle physics, starting from the corpuscularwave dualism and terminating with the omega minus hyperon and hypothetical quarks, were obtained or made "at the tip of a mathematician's pen.". (shrink)

Technological change modelling (TCM) is quietly transforming the landscape of environmental debate. It provides a powerful new basis for technological optimism, which has long been a key battleground. The technique is at the heart of mainstream climate change mitigation policies and greatly strengthens environmentalism over ecologism. It seems to show that technological change can solve the problem. I argue that the models employ a flawed understanding of technological change and that policies based on them are a major gamble. The (...) article aims to begin a wider debate on TCM, offering a defence of ecolo-gism rooted in the history of technology and SCOT literatures. (shrink)

Marr’s seminal distinction between computational, algorithmic, and implementational levels of analysis has inspired research in cognitive science for more than 30 years. According to a widely-used paradigm, the modelling of cognitive processes should mainly operate on the computational level and be targeted at the idealised competence, rather than the actual performance of cognisers in a specific domain. In this paper, we explore how this paradigm can be adopted and revised to understand mathematical problem solving. The computational-level approach applies methods (...) from computational complexity theory and focuses on optimal strategies for completing cognitive tasks. However, human cognitive capacities in mathematical problem solving are essentially characterised by processes that are computationally sub-optimal, because they initially add to the computational complexity of the solutions. Yet, these solutions can be optimal for human cognisers given the acquisition and enactment of mathematical practices. Here we present diagrams and the spatial manipulation of symbols as two examples of problem solving strategies that can be computationally sub-optimal but humanly optimal. These aspects need to be taken into account when analysing competence in mathematical problem solving. Empirically informed considerations on enculturation can help identify, explore, and model the cognitive processes involved in problem solving tasks. The enculturation account of mathematical problem solving strongly suggests that computational-level analyses need to be complemented by considerations on the algorithmic and implementational levels. The emerging research strategy can help develop algorithms that model what we call enculturated cognitive optimality in an empirically plausible and ecologically valid way. (shrink)

The frame problem is a fundamental challenge in AI, and the Lucas-Penrose argument is supposed to show a limitation of AI if it is successful at all. Here we discuss both of them from a unified Gödelian point of view. We give an informational reformulation of the frame problem, which turns out to be tightly intertwined with the nature of Gödelian incompleteness in the sense that they both hinge upon the finitarity condition of agents or systems, without which (...) their alleged limitations can readily be overcome, and that they can both be seen as instances of the fundamental discrepancy between finitary beings and infinitary reality. We then revisit the Lucas-Penrose argument, elaborating a version of it which indicates the impossibility of information physics or the computational theory of the universe. It turns out through a finer analysis that if the Lucas-Penrose argument is accepted then information physics is impossible too; the possibility of AI or the computational theory of the mind is thus linked with the possibility of information physics or the computational theory of the universe. We finally reconsider the Penrose’s Quantum Mind Thesis in light of recent advances in quantum modelling of cognition, giving a structural reformulation of it and thereby shedding new light on what is problematic in the Quantum Mind Thesis. Overall, we consider it promising to link the computational theory of the mind with the computational theory of the universe; their integration would allow us to go beyond the Cartesian dualism, giving, in particular, an incarnation of Chalmers’ double-aspect theory of information. (shrink)

The idea that simplicity matters in science is as old as science itself, with the much cited example of Ockham's Razor, 'entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem': entities are not to be multiplied beyond necessity. A problem with Ockham's razor is that nearly everybody seems to accept it, but few are able to define its exact meaning and to make it operational in a non-arbitrary way. Using a multidisciplinary perspective including philosophers, mathematicians, econometricians and economists, this 2002 monograph examines (...) simplicity by asking six questions: what is meant by simplicity? How is simplicity measured? Is there an optimum trade-off between simplicity and goodness-of-fit? What is the relation between simplicity and empirical modelling? What is the relation between simplicity and prediction? What is the connection between simplicity and convenience? The book concludes with reflections on simplicity by Nobel Laureates in Economics. (shrink)

Recent work by Frigg et. al. and Mayo-Wilson have called attention to a particular sort of error associated with attempts to model certain complex systems: structural modeling error. The assessment of the degree of SME in a model presupposes agreement between modelers about the best way to individuate natural systems, an agreement which can be more problematic than it appears. This problem, which we dub “the system individuation problem” arises in many of the same contexts as SME, (...) and the two often compound one another. This paper explores the common roots of the two problems in concerns about the precision of predictions generated by scientific models, and discusses how both concerns bear on the study of complex natural systems, particularly the global climate. (shrink)

We show that linear logic can serve as an expressive framework in which to model a rich variety of combinatorial auction mechanisms. Due to its resource-sensitive nature, linear logic can easily represent bids in combinatorial auctions in which goods may be sold in multiple units, and we show how it naturally generalises several bidding languages familiar from the literature. Moreover, the winner determination problem, i.e., the problem of computing an allocation of goods to bidders producing a certain amount (...) of revenue for the auctioneer, can be modelled as the problem of finding a proof for a particular linear logic sequent. (shrink)

The widespread and long-lived failings of academic economics are due to an over-reliance on largely inappropriate mathematical methods of analysis. This is an assessment I have long maintained. Many heterodox economists, however, appear to hold instead that the central problem is a form of political-economic ideology. Specifically, it is widely contended in heterodox circles that the discipline goes astray just because so many economists are committed to a portrayal of the market economy as a smoothly or efficiently functioning system (...) or some such, a portrayal that, whether sincerely held or otherwise, is inconsistent with the workings of social reality. Here I critically examine the contention that a form of political-economic ideology of this sort is the primary problem and assess its explanatory power. I conclude that the contention does not fare very well. I do not, though, deny that ideology of some sort has a major impact on the output of the modern economics academy. However it is of a different nature to the form typically discussed, and works in somewhat indirect and complex ways. Having raised the question of the impact of ideology I take the opportunity to explore its play in the economics academy more generally. (shrink)

As a NP-hard problem that needs to be solved in real time, the dynamic task allocation problem of unmanned aerial vehicle swarm has gradually become a difficulty and hotspot in the current planning field. Aiming at the problems of poor real-time performance and low quality of the solution in the dynamic task allocation of heterogeneous UAV swarm in uncertain environment, this paper establishes a dynamic task allocation model that can meet the actual needs and uses the binary wolf (...) pack algorithm to solve it, so as to propose a dynamic task allocation method of heterogeneous UAV swarm in uncertain environment. In this method, a dynamic mechanism of attacking while searching and priority attacking of important targets is designed. A dynamic task allocation model of multitarget, multitask, heterogeneous multiaircraft platform and multiconstraint is established based on the target cost-effectiveness ratio and task execution time window. In addition, one-dimensional 0–1 coding method is adopted to encode the task allocation scheme. Furthermore, the wolf pack algorithm is introduced in brief. This paper focuses on the BWPA with the good computational robustness and strong global search ability to solve the dynamic allocation model. According to the simulation results, the designed task allocation method not only has good adaptability to the change of target and UAV number, as well as good stability and scalability, but also can effectively solve the dynamic task allocation problem of heterogeneous UAV swarm in unknown environment. Therefore, the established model and solution method can provide a useful reference for task allocation and other related problems. (shrink)

As one of the important 21st-century skills, collaborative problem solving (CPS) has caught much attention in the assessment area. Two initiative approaches have been created: the human-to-human and human-to-agent modes. Between the two modes, the human-to-human interaction is much closer to the real-world situation and its process stream data can reveal more detailed information about the cognitive processes. In order to measure CPS ability effectively by this mode, how to extract indicators from the data and model it is crucial, (...) while the existing methods all have some disadvantages. In the present study, we proposed a new paradigm for extracting indicators and modeling the dyad data in the human-to-human mode. Specifically, both individual and group indicators were extracted from the data stream, which served as evidence for demonstrating CPS skills. In addition, a within-item multidimensional Rasch model was used to fit the dyad data. To test the validity of the paradigm, we developed five tasks following the asymmetric mechanism and integrated them into an online testing platform. Four hundred thirty-four students from China participated in the assessment and the online platform recorded their crucial actions with time stamps. The new paradigm was used to deal with the generated process stream data. Results showed that the model fitted well. The item parameter estimates and fitting indexes were acceptable, and students were well differentiated. In general, the new paradigm of extracting indicators and modeling the dyad data is feasible for improving the human-to-human assessment of CPS. Finally, the limitations of the current study and further research directions are discussed. (shrink)

In my paper I focus on the growth of knowledge in finance from an heuristic viewpoint and I propose the analysis of two different knowledge-advancing strategies usually adopted at the frontier of knowledge, i.e. problem-solving and model-building. I show how these two strategies, even though both effective in the short-run, nonetheless provide descriptions of the target object and which are different in their descriptive and knowledge-advancing depth. In order to do so, I propose a case study borrowed from the (...) modelling activities in the Libor market. (shrink)

This paper defines and analyses the concept of a 'ranking problem'. In a ranking problem, a set of objects, each of which possesses some common property P to some degree, are ranked by P-ness. I argue that every eligible answer to a ranking problem can be expressed as a complete and transitive 'is at least as P as' relation. Vagueness is expressed as a multiplicity of eligible rankings. Incommensurability, properly understood, is the absence of a common property (...) P. Trying to analyse incommensurability in the same framework as ranking problems causes unnecessary confusion. (shrink)

This paper examines the philosophical discourse surrounding the role of models in bioinspired disciplines, focusing on biorobotics as a case study. I address the ongoing debate on the distinctions between ‘model of’ and ‘model for’ within the context of biomimetics, a field that seeks inspiration from nature to address different scientific and technological goals. I will develop the argument that in biorobotics it is quite impossible to indicate what a model per se is. Instead, a bio-inspired model, such as a (...) robot, can be seen as a ‘model for’ or a ‘model of’, depending on the epistemic activity and scientific and technological game (in the sense of Wittgenstein) this is part of. By doing so, I contribute to the broader discussion on modelling practices as well as to exploring the epistemology of biomimetics. First, I outline biomimetics’ peculiarities and address mimetic symmetry, the challenge of integrating bio-inspired technologies into biological systems. Second, I recall the distinction between ‘model for’ and ‘model of’. Third, I examine biorobotics’ modelling practices. Fourth, I explore the interconnection of ‘model for’ and ‘model of’ in biorobotics. Fifth, using the notion of technological game (Wittgenstein) and epistemic actions (Chang), I investigate reconsider the mimetic asymmetry problem. (shrink)

Many problems in Multi-Agent Systems (MASs) research are formulated in terms of the abilities of a coalition of agents. Existing approaches to reasoning about coalitional ability are usually focused on games or transition systems, which are described in terms of states and actions. Such approaches however often neglect a key feature of multi-agent systems, namely that the actions of the agents require resources. In this paper, we describe a logic for reasoning about coalitional ability under resource constraints in the probabilistic (...) setting. We extend Resource-bounded Alternating-time Temporal Logic (RB-ATL) with probabilistic reasoning and provide a standard algorithm for the model-checking problem of the resulting logic Probabilistic resource-bounded ATL (pRB-ATL). We implement model-checking algorithms and present experimental results using simple multi-agent model-checking problems of increasing complexity. (shrink)

This study aimed to explore practices and strategies that have successfully reduced time-to-proficiency of the workforce in large multinational organisations and develop a model based on them. The central research question of this study was: How can organisations accelerate time-to-proficiency of employees in the workplace? The study addressed three aspects: the meaning of accelerated proficiency, as seen by business leaders; the business factors driving the need for shorter time-to-proficiency and benefits accrued from it; and practices and strategies to shorten time-to-proficiency (...) of the workforce. 85 participants (n=85) from 7 countries who represented 10 economic sectors, 20 business sectors and 28 industry groups contributed 66 successful bounded project cases. A qualitative research approach was used. Data were collected through in-depth interviews with project leaders and by collecting additional project case documents. Data were analysed using thematic analysis to identify the themes in the data. Matrix analysis was then used to perform within-case and cross-case analysis to compare the project cases. 11 overarching themes were developed from the data analysis, out of which two overarching themes explained the characteristics of job-role proficiency and accelerated proficiency, while three overarching themes described the magnituide and scale of time-to-proficiency business problem, business drivers for accelerating proficiency and business benefits of reduced time-to-proficiency. Six overarching themes revealed the business practices employed by organisations to reduce time-to-proficiency: (1) Defining business-driven proficiency measures in terms of expected business outcomes from a job role; (2) Developing a proficiency reference map of all the inputs, conditions and roadblocks that determine or influence how required business outcomes are being produced in a job role; (3) Sequencing an efficient proficiency path of activities and experiences ordered to produce the desired business outcomes in the shortest possible time; (4) Manufacturing accelerated contextual experiences by leveraging on-the-job opportunities or training interventions in a compressed time-frame; (5) Promoting an active emotional immersion through engagements, consequences, stakes, feedback and proficiency assessments; and (6) Setting up a proficiency eco-system, providing timely support to performers while doing the job such as enabling job environment, highly involved manager, structured mentoring from experts, purposeful social connectivity with peers, leveraging subject matter experts and on-demand performance support systems. Organisations orchestrated these six business practices as an input-output-feedback system to reduce time-to-proficiency of the workforce. A conceptual model (Accelerated Proficiency Model) was developed representing interactions among six business-level practices/processes as a closed-loop system to explain the concept and process of accelerated proficiency in the workplace. These practices were implemented through a set of twenty-four strategies proven successful in various contexts. The strategies employed were much beyond the boundaries of conventional training interventions. The job itself acted as the primary mechanism to accelerate proficiency. A two-level hierarchical framework (6/24 framework of strategies) was also constructed in the form of a checklist consisting of six practices and twenty-four strategies for practitioners. Overall, the findings of this research study contribute significantly to the body of knowledge on accelerated proficiency. In particular, the conceptual model and the framework developed in this study can be implemented across a range of contexts, business sectors, job types and settings to reduce time-to-proficiency of the workforce. (shrink)

Visual analogy is believed to be important in human problem solving. Yet, there are few computational models of visual analogy. In this paper, we present a preliminary computational model of visual analogy in problem solving. The model is instantiated in a computer program, called Galatea, which uses a language for representing and transferring visual information called Privlan. We describe how the computational model can account for a small slice of a cognitive-historical analysis of Maxwell’s reasoning about electromagnetism.

Information is considered to be the major part of an organization. With the enhancement of technology, the knowledge level is increasing with the passage of time. This increase of information is in volume, velocity, and variety. Extracting meaningful insights is the dire need of an individual from such information and knowledge. Visualization is a key tool and has become one of the most significant platforms for interpreting, extracting, and communicating information. The current study is an endeavour toward data modelling and (...) user knowledge by using a rough set approach for extracting meaningful insights. The technique has used different rough set algorithms such as K-nearest neighbours, decision rules, decomposition tree, and local transfer function classifier for an experimental setup. The approach has found its accuracy for the optimal use of data modelling and user knowledge. The experimental setup of the proposed method is validated by using the dataset available in the UCI web repository. Results of the proposed study show that the model is effective and efficient with an accuracy of 96% for KNN, 87% for decision rules, 91% for decision trees, 85.04% for cross validation architecture, and 94.3% for local transfer function classifier. The validity of the proposed classification algorithms is tested using different performance metrics such as F-score, precision, accuracy, recall, specificity, and misclassification rates. For all these performance metrics, the KNN classifier outperformed, and this high performance shows the applicability of the KNN classifier in the proposed problem. (shrink)

Cognitive archaeologists attempt to infer the cognitive and cultural features of past hominins and their societies from the material record. This task faces the problem of _minimum necessary competence_: as the most sophisticated thinking of ancient hominins may have been in domains that leave no archaeological signature, it is safest to assume that tool production and use reflects only the lower boundary of cognitive capacities. Cognitive archaeology involves selecting a model from the cognitive sciences and then assessing some aspect (...) of the material record through that lens. We give examples to show that background theoretical commitments in cognitive science that inform those models lead to different minimum necessary competence results. This raises an important question: what principles should guide us in selecting a model from the cognitive sciences? We outline two complementary responses to this question. The first involves using _independent_ lines of evidence to converge on a particular capacity. This can then influence model choice. The second is a broader suggestion. Theoretical diversity is a good thing in science, but is only beneficial over a limited amount of time. According to recent modelling work, one way of limiting diversity is to introduce extreme priors. We argue that having a broad spectrum of views in the philosophy of cognitive science may actually help cognitive archaeologists address the problem of minimum necessary competence. (shrink)

We consider the use of interventions for resolving a problem of unidentified statistical models. The leading examples are from latent variable modelling, an influential statistical tool in the social sciences. We first explain the problem of statistical identifiability and contrast it with the identifiability of causal models. We then draw a parallel between the latent variable models and Bayesian networks with hidden nodes. This allows us to clarify the use of interventions for dealing with unidentified statistical models. We (...) end by discussing the philosophical and methodological import of our result. (shrink)