A Dilemma for Solomonoff Prediction

Philosophy of Science 90 (2):288-306 (2023)
  Copy   BIBTEX

Abstract

The framework of Solomonoff prediction assigns prior probability to hypotheses inversely proportional to their Kolmogorov complexity. There are two well-known problems. First, the Solomonoff prior is relative to a choice of Universal Turing machine. Second, the Solomonoff prior is not computable. However, there are responses to both problems. Different Solomonoff priors converge with more and more data. Further, there are computable approximations to the Solomonoff prior. I argue that there is a tension between these two responses. This is because computable approximations to Solomonoff prediction do not always converge.

Other Versions

No versions found

Similar books and articles

Solomonoff Prediction and Occam’s Razor.Tom F. Sterkenburg - 2016 - Philosophy of Science 83 (4):459-479.
Universal Prediction: A Philosophical Investigation.Tom F. Sterkenburg - 2018 - Dissertation, University of Groningen
A generalized characterization of algorithmic probability.Tom F. Sterkenburg - 2017 - Theory of Computing Systems 61 (4):1337-1352.
Universal Algorithmic Intelligence: A Mathematical Top-Down Approach.Marcus Hutter - 2006 - In Ben Goertzel & Cassio Pennachin, Artificial General Intelligence. Springer Verlag. pp. 227-290.

Analytics

Added to PP
2022-06-13

Downloads
818 (#33,236)

6 months
213 (#17,501)

Historical graph of downloads
How can I increase my downloads?

Author's Profile

Sven Neth
University of Pittsburgh

Citations of this work

Better Foundations for Subjective Probability.Sven Neth - 2024 - Australasian Journal of Philosophy 103 (1):1-22.
Random Emeralds.Sven Neth - forthcoming - Philosophical Quarterly.
Random Emeralds.Sven Neth - forthcoming - Philosophical Quarterly.
Non-Ideal Decision Theory.Sven Neth - 2023 - Dissertation, University of California, Berkeley

Add more citations

References found in this work

Fact, Fiction, and Forecast.Nelson Goodman - 1983 - Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Accuracy and the Laws of Credence.Richard Pettigrew - 2016 - New York, NY.: Oxford University Press UK.
The Foundations of Statistics.Leonard J. Savage - 1956 - Philosophy of Science 23 (2):166-166.
Fact, Fiction, and Forecast.Nelson Goodman - 1955 - Philosophy 31 (118):268-269.

View all 16 references / Add more references