First things first: What is a base rate?

Behavioral and Brain Sciences 19 (1):33-34 (1996)
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Abstract

The fallacy beneath the base rate fallacy is that we know what a base rate is. We talk as if base rates and individuating information were two different kinds of information. From a Bayesian perspective, however, the only difference between base rate and individuating information is – which comes first.

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10.1017/s0140525x00041352

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References found in this work

The Structure of Scientific Revolutions.Thomas Samuel Kuhn - 1962 - Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Edited by Otto Neurath.
A Treatise on Probability.John Maynard Keynes - 1921 - London,: Macmillan & co..

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