Abstract

Forecasting is fraught with difficulty, but the dynamic Asia?Pacific region is unlikely to remain static in its present configuration. This paper offers 7 scenarios for the future of integration of the Asia?Pacific that take into account economic, strategic, and cultural dimensions of change, and the kinds of events that could trigger regional reconfiguration. The scenarios are aligned along a continuum from low to high tension: (1) a formal, multilateral security regime, (2) a concert of Asia, (3) the status quo of integration under Western hegemony, (4) integration without China, (5) a neo?Confucian cultural zone, (6) tripolarization, and (7) a new cold war between the U.S. and China. The most important bilateral relation shaping the Asia?Pacific future is the U.S.?China relation. If this relationship is well managed, and if regional multilateral institutions continue to develop, tensions in the region are likely to remain low. But the potential for serious conflict over Taiwan, Korea, trade issues, and Asian vs. Western values remains very real