Implications of real-world distributions and the conversation game for studies of human probability judgments

Behavioral and Brain Sciences 30 (3):282-283 (2007)
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Abstract

Subjects in experiments use real-life strategies that differ significantly from those assumed by experimenters. First, true randomness is rare in both natural and constructed environments. Second, communication follows conventions which depend on the game-theoretic aspects of situations. Third, in the common rhetorical stance of storytelling, people do not tell about the representative but about unusual, exceptional, and rare cases

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