Abstract

This study investigates the epistemic role and value of prediction in science: do predictions, and what kind of predictions, justify belief in scientific theories? In the philosophy of science, the epistemic role of prediction has been understood mainly in terms of novel prediction. Scientific theories are considered to gain special epistemic support if they predict novel empirical results that were not used in their construction. This view has played a central role in two debates in the field: prediction vs. accommodation and scientific realism vs. anti-realism. In the former debate, predictivists seek to explain why novel predictions confirm the theory more strongly than accommodations, i.e. empirical results that were used in the construction of the theory. In the latter debate, predictivists argue that novel prediction is one of the most important criteria of empirical success that justifies realist commitment to scientific theories.