Early stopping of RCTs: two potential issues for error statistics

Synthese 192 (4):1089-1116 (2015)
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Abstract

Error statistics is an important methodological view in philosophy of statistics and philosophy of science that can be applied to scientific experiments such as clinical trials. In this paper, I raise two potential issues for ES when it comes to guiding, and explaining early stopping of randomized controlled trials : ES provides limited guidance in cases of early unfavorable trends due to the possibility of trend reversal; ES is silent on how to prospectively control error rates in experiments requiring multiple interim analyses. The method of conditional power, together with a rationing principle for RCTs, can assist ES in addressing such issues

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Roger Stanev
University of Ottawa

References found in this work

Logic of Statistical Inference.Ian Hacking - 1965 - Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
Error and the growth of experimental knowledge.Deborah Mayo - 1996 - International Studies in the Philosophy of Science 15 (1):455-459.
Severe testing as a basic concept in a neyman–pearson philosophy of induction.Deborah G. Mayo & Aris Spanos - 2006 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 57 (2):323-357.
Principles of inference and their consequences.Deborah G. Mayo & Michael Kruse - 2001 - In David Corfield & Jon Williamson, Foundations of Bayesianism. Kluwer Academic Publishers. pp. 381--403.

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