Abstract

Ways of prediction, ways of rhetoric? Let me begin by placing side-by-side two statements that, at face value, have nothing in common. The first comes from a report by a world leader in forecasting, Stratfor: Forecasting world events is a difficult task that takes guts and discipline. Though you can find endless scenarios and speculation almost anywhere, Stratfor gives you forecasts. These are a few of the unlikely predictions we made long before the headlines caught up: 1995—Disparity between net creditor and debtor states in Europe will make it difficult to sustain a unified currency. 2005—The center of gravity will shift from al Qaeda's core group to regional spinoffs and grassroots jihadists. 2008—NATO will...