Abstract

This chapter examines modal modelling in climate science. It considers two related topics. The first is the use of climate models to attribute extreme weather events to climate change. The second is the interpretation and use of collections of climate models. Each topic is the subject of a current debate within climate science and philosophy of science, and each has an important modal component. The debates are similar in that each involves a contrast between probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods. In each case, the chapter examines the kind of modal claims scientists make and how they are justified. As climate change is an important practical problem, each debate has a link to policy decisions, and so the chapter ends with a discussion of how modal modelling, and the possibilities it identifies, can support decision-making.