Purely subjective extended Bayesian models with Knightian unambiguity

Theory and Decision 79 (4):547-571 (2015)
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Abstract

This paper provides a model of belief representation in which ambiguity and unambiguity are endogenously distinguished in a purely subjective setting where objects of choices are, as usual, maps from states to consequences. Specifically, I first extend the maxmin expected utility theory and get a representation of beliefs such that the probabilistic beliefs over each ambiguous event are represented by a non-degenerate interval, while the ones over each unambiguous event are represented by a number. I then consider a class of the biseparable preferences. Two representation results are achieved and can be used to identify the unambiguity in the context of the biseparable preferences. Finally a subjective definition of ambiguity is suggested. It provides a choice theoretic foundation for the Knightian distinction between ambiguity and unambiguity.

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References found in this work

The Foundations of Statistics.Leonard Savage - 1954 - Wiley Publications in Statistics.
A Treatise on Probability.John Maynard Keynes - 1921 - London,: Macmillan & co..
Truth and probability.Frank Ramsey - 2010 - In Antony Eagle, Philosophy of Probability: Contemporary Readings. New York: Routledge. pp. 52-94.
Risk, Uncertainty and Profit.Frank H. Knight - 1921 - University of Chicago Press.
The Foundations of Statistics.Leonard J. Savage - 1954 - Synthese 11 (1):86-89.

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