Abstract

Quantitative methods are not only useful but sometimes crucial to historical analysis. They can, for example, demonstrate that Arthur Schlesinger, Jr. is wrong in his conclusion that Roosevelt had no choice but to fill the federal courts with his supporters in 1937 and thus to incur public wrath. The Supreme Court had ruled consistently that programs of the New Deal were unconstitutional. To that point in his presidency, Roosevelt had had no opportunity to appoint new members to the Supreme Court and Schlesinger argues that he saw no prospect of any in the future. On the contrary, statistical analysis shows that Roosevelt had a great probability of making future appointments. Even if he had acted only on the basis of informal information, Roosevelt, a man predisposed to risk, would have seen the favorable odds