Abstract

We sometimes joke about the world conspiring against us. For instance, I might suggest that it will rain today because I’m without my umbrella or that my football team will play poorly this weekend because I’m attending the game. But of course the weather is not influenced by my umbrella, and football teams do not perform any differently when I’m present. Any perceived correlations here are most likely illusory or, if real, mere accidents. In other words, the probability of a fine day and the probability of my team playing well are independent of my actions