Kudos for the Mindless Expert

Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 19 (1):65-79 (2007)
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Abstract

ABSTRACT Arguments for skepticism about political expertise abound. The skeptics believe that political matters are too unpredictable, experts too dogmatic, social science too imprecise, or the electorate too blind to justify hopefulness about the results of real‐world democracy. Philip Tetlock's empirical research suggests, however, that there is some regularity to the political world, and that while most political experts have a poor grasp of it, some (Isaiah Berlin's “foxes”) do better than others (his “hedgehogs”). And Tetlock's research suggests that our political judgments can be improved if we trust more in mechanical, statistical prediction, which outperforms even “fox‐like” experts.

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The nature of belief systems in mass publics (1964).Philip E. Converse - 2006 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 18 (1-3):1-74.
Popper, Weber, and Hayek: The epistemology and politics of ignorance.Jeffrey Friedman - 2005 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 17 (1-2):1-58.

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